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  • Offshore Renminbi – Resilience to be tested in 2015 - Updated Wed January 7, 2015

    RGI rose 1.2% m/m in November; trade settlement is a key driver, as 22% of China’s trade settled in RMB • By end-2015, we expect the RGI to reach 2,500 and Renminbi deposits in Hong Kong to reach CNY 1.05tn • Dim Sum issuance this year should be ...

  • 28-Nov – No quick fix to China’s growth - Updated Thu November 27, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – We expect inflation to have spiked in November • South Korea – Exports likely slowed in November • Thailand – November inflation was likely subdued • Market focus • We expect China’s official manufacturing PMI ...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Seoul and Paris join the RGI - Updated Tue October 7, 2014

    RGI now includes Seoul and Paris, reflecting their contribution to Renminbi deposits and payment flows • Excluding the new centres, August was a slow month for the RGI amid lingering China macro concerns • Paris is well placed to enjoy recent pol...

  • 30-Sep – China’s PMI to reflect continued headwinds - Updated Mon September 29, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • RBNZ – FX intervention confirmed • Indonesia – We expect moderate inflation data for September • South Korea – Inflation likely still benign; exports likely recovered • Market focus • Official manufacturing PMI likely inc...

  • 31-Jul – Fed policy: Boiling the frog - Updated Wed July 30, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – Exports likely picked up, CPI inflation stayed benign • China – We expect a higher official PMI reading for July • Indonesia – Inflation likely accelerated on a m/m basis in July • Market focus • The FOMC del...

  • 09-Jul – BoK: On hold, awaiting more data - Updated Tue July 8, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Trade surplus expected to have rebounded • BNM and BI – BNM likely to hike rates; BI likely to keep them on hold • India – A budget beyond numbers • Market focus • We expect the BoK to keep the base rate at 2.50% in...

  • 30-May – China exports amid the BRIC malaise - Updated Thu May 29, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Growth in the manufacturing sector was likely slow in May • South Korea – May export growth likely slowed due to the holidays • FX Trading Portfolio – We raise our AUD-NZD stop-loss level • Market focus • Trade repo...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • 26-Jul – Beijing is ready for more targeted support - Updated Thu July 25, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – GoISecs to trade weak on tight liquidity • South Korea – Mild dip in IP, sizeable C/A surplus expected • Rates – EM bond flows stabilise, but Thailand and Turkey are still seeing outflows • Market focus • China’s ...

  • 31-May – Behind the IMF rhetoric on CNY valuation - Updated Thu May 30, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – Headline inflation likely remained very low • Thailand – Inflation is expected to have remained benign • Indonesia – Inflation was likely low in May • Market focus • Cumulative gain in the CNY’s real trade-we...

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