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  • 07-Apr – One-year review of the BoJ’s QQE - Updated Sun April 6, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – We expect BI to keep rates unchanged in April • Korea and Taiwan – Rebound in equity inflows spurs FX rally • UK – Strong manufacturing activity supports industrial production • Market focus • We expect the BoJ...

  • 31-Mar – Reserve Bank of India likely to stay on hold - Updated Sun March 30, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – PMI may show further moderation • South Korea – CPI inflation expected to be benign, even with recovery • Australia – RBA likely to maintain a ‘period of stability’ in rates • Market focus • Sharp correction in in...

  • 28-Feb – Manageable inflation in Asia - Updated Thu February 27, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – PMI likely maintained a positive but weak signal • South Korea – Trade expected to have increased in February • China – Manufacturing sector likely saw a mild expansion in February • Market focus • Asia will se...

  • 27-Feb – The hidden North Asia risk story - Updated Wed February 26, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – IP likely fell on adverse base effect and external factors • India – Yet another quarter of weak economic activity • US – Durable goods orders: More than the weather • Market focus • Authorities’ desire to di...

  • 12-Feb – US: Yellen sings from Bernanke’s songbook - Updated Tue February 11, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Unemployment rate likely rose to a 4.5-year high of 5.9% • Indonesia – We expect BI to keep rates unchanged in February • South Korea – The policy rate is likely to be kept on hold at 2.5% • Market focus • There...

  • 30-Jan – A 10bn tapering goodbye - Updated Wed January 29, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – Trade was likely slower and inflation benign in January • Thailand – Political unrest likely to hit the current account • Euro area – Downward inflationary pressure tests ECB tolerance • Market focus • The ...

  • 13-Jan – Fed vs. weather - Updated Sun January 12, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – Labour market expected to have remained stable • Japan – Current account likely stayed negative in November • UK – Inflation likely to have stabilised in December • Market focus • December NFP a cold shower, ...

  • 28-Nov – Adjusting our USD-Latam forecasts - Updated Wed November 27, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – Q2-FY14 GDP expected to edge up • South Korea – IP likely rebounded on export growth • Euro area – Persistent low inflation ahead of December’s ECB meeting • Market focus • Broad USD strength in H1-2014 is a core th...

  • 28-Oct – India: RBI – Sequencing the exit - Updated Sun October 27, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Rising retail sales and hiring indicate growing confidence • South Korea – Industrial production likely contracted in September • US – Pending homes sales likely slowed, but IP probably increased • Market focus • Hi...

  • Asia Focus – Clearing skies - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in majo...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • 30-Sep – A very tentative recovery - Updated Sun September 29, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – September inflation was likely lower m/m, higher y/y • South Korea – Benign inflation and a healthy trade surplus • Australia – RBA likely to keep the policy rate unchanged • Market focus • China and US manufact...

  • 27-Sep – Euro-area policy, politics and economics - Updated Thu September 26, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Thailand – Modest current account deficit expected for August • Vietnam – Revision of USD-VND FX Forecasts • South Korea – Industrial production likely rebounded in August • Market focus • Unpredictable politics in Austria...

  • Korea – 2013: The breakout year - Updated Thu September 5, 2013

    We believe external and domestic demand will boost growth in H2-2013 and 2014 • The recovery in consumer demand and facility investment should further support growth • We expect a BoK rate hike in H2-2014 • We revise down our USD-KRW forecast pr...

  • 30-Aug – EM reserve adequacy - Updated Thu August 29, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – August headline inflation likely slowed m/m, picked up y/y • South Korea – Headline inflation, exports likely continued to rise • US – Expected increase in Chicago PMI would bode well for ISM survey • Market foc...

  • 19-Aug – Better news, Neutral EM - Updated Sun August 18, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Steady tech demand likely supported export orders in July • Korea – The capital market’s ‘sudden stop’ is beginning to ease • Hong Kong – Underlying inflation likely edged higher • Market focus • Recent US, China a...

  • 31-Jul – For your guidance - Updated Tue July 30, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – Weakness in manufacturing PMI likely continued • South Korea – Both headline inflation and exports likely picked up • Indonesia – Month-on-month inflation likely peaked in July • Market focus • The ECB and BoE use...

  • 26-Jul – Beijing is ready for more targeted support - Updated Thu July 25, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – GoISecs to trade weak on tight liquidity • South Korea – Mild dip in IP, sizeable C/A surplus expected • Rates – EM bond flows stabilise, but Thailand and Turkey are still seeing outflows • Market focus • China’s ...

  • 24-Jul – Positioning versus fundamentals - Updated Tue July 23, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – BSP likely to keep policy and SDA rates on hold • South Korea – Q2 GDP growth likely picked up in y/y terms • US – We expand our yield forecasts to the 5Y sector • Market focus • Positioning, seasonals and...

  • 10-Jul – Adjusting our USD-AXJ FX forecasts - Updated Tue July 9, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – We expect a BI rate hike in July • Malaysia – BNM to maintain the status quo • South Korea – BoK likely to keep rates on hold • Market focus • We are revising higher our USD-AXJ FX forecasts on Fed QE tapering, ...



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07-Apr – One-year review of the BoJ’s QQE

Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – We expect BI to keep rates unchanged in April • Korea and Taiwan – Rebound in equity inflows spurs FX rally • UK – Strong manufacturing activity supports industrial production • Market focus • We expect the BoJ to stay put at its April 7-8 meeting,...

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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.