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  • Taiwan – Upbeat on Q1 growth despite slow Q4 - Updated Wed February 11, 2015

    Preliminary Q4 GDP growth slowed y/y; we remain upbeat on Q1 growth, however • Inflation risk is receding due to falling oil prices; we expect policy rate to stay on hold at 1.875% in March • TWD FX: We recommend Underweight short- and medium-te...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Another year of progress ahead - Updated Mon February 9, 2015

    • 2014 was another strong year for CNH market development, with the RGI rising 53% • We outline our top 10 calls for 2015 for the Renminbi and its internationalisation • Formosa bonds are set to receive more policy support; KRW-CNY direct trading ...

  • 06-Feb – Malaysia shows resilience - Updated Thu February 5, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • India – New GDP series likely to show slower economic activity in FY15 • Japan – Current account balance was likely positive in December 2014 • Taiwan – Trade surplus was likely boosted by a lower (oil) import bill • Marke...

  • Taiwan – Take profit on pay 5Y bond swap spread - Updated Tue February 3, 2015

    • Low inflation and ample liquidity underpin demand for 5Y TGBs • Impact on long-end TGB demand to be exacerbated as more global corporates issue Formosa bonds • We close our 5Y trade; take 14bps profit – current: 25bps, entry: 11bps, target: 25bp...

  • 03-Feb – Asia: At least inflation is benign - Updated Mon February 2, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – January PMI to reflect sluggish manufacturing momentum • Taiwan – January inflation to slow significantly due to lower oil prices • UK – Composite PMI likely improved marginally • Market focus • Growth sentimen...

  • 26-Jan – ECB reinforces AXJ cross-currents - Updated Sun January 25, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Trade deficit to widen in November • Taiwan – Monitoring index to show economy on steady growth path • Vietnam – January data likely to show an acceleration ahead of Tet • Market focus • PBoC signals defensive...

  • 22-Jan – Greece’s election heralds a move to the left - Updated Wed January 21, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – We expect Q4 GDP growth to have slowed • Thailand – Trade account likely improved further • Taiwan – IP data to show the economy in better shape than in 2010-11 • Market focus • Anti-bailout, left-wing Syriza...

  • Asian rates 2015 – Cherry-picking Asian markets - Updated Tue January 13, 2015

    • Asian local-currency bond markets to benefit from low inflation and lower-for-longer DM bond yields • We expect local central banks to stay dovish in H1 before showing some divergence in H2 • Demand/supply dynamics are neutral to positive, exc...

  • 09-Jan – US NFPs: Regressing to the mean - Updated Thu January 8, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • TWD – USD-TWD gains may slow near-term • India – The SIGMA signal is bearish; we remain Positive on IGBs • India – Increase in December CPI is unlikely to be a concern • Market focus • We expect NFPs to moderate to 240,000 ...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Resilience to be tested in 2015 - Updated Wed January 7, 2015

    RGI rose 1.2% m/m in November; trade settlement is a key driver, as 22% of China’s trade settled in RMB • By end-2015, we expect the RGI to reach 2,500 and Renminbi deposits in Hong Kong to reach CNY 1.05tn • Dim Sum issuance this year should be ...



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06-Feb – Malaysia shows resilience

Top 3 data/events • India – New GDP series likely to show slower economic activity in FY15 • Japan – Current account balance was likely positive in December 2014 • Taiwan – Trade surplus was likely boosted by a lower (oil) import bill • Market focus • Malaysia’s non-commodity exports...

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