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  • 04-Oct-12 – INR – Fundamentals to lag new reforms - Updated Wed October 3, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Divergence between export and import growth continues • Philippines – Inflationary pressures ahead • Taiwan – Consumer price inflation likely stayed elevated in September • Market focus • Volley of new Indian pol...

  • 25-Sep-12 – Asian growth to rebound in 2013 - Updated Mon September 24, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Industrial production growth likely eased slightly • Thailand – Weak exports likely hit production further • Taiwan – Leading index expected to show modest growth • Market focus • Asia's cycle is cooling, but we...

  • 21-Sep-12 – Time to come back down to earth - Updated Thu September 20, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Moderating inflation in August • Taiwan – Expected rebound in August industrial production • US – Manufacturing remains soft • Market focus • The EUR has rallied but the post-QE3 euphoria has been short-lived, a...

  • 19-Sep-12 – Revision of USD-AXJ FX forecasts - Updated Tue September 18, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Soft export demand is likely to keep the CBC cautious • South Africa – SARB is likely to remain on hold • Euro area – Flash PMI indices to signal continued recession • Market focus • We revise selective USD-AXJ FX ...

  • 06-Sep-12 – India: Too soon to buy - Updated Wed September 5, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Exports are not likely to see a turnaround as yet • Philippines – BSP likely to keep rates on hold after higher inflation • Taiwan – Exports may have stabilised due to a rebound in tech sales • Market focus • T...

  • 04-Sep-12 – Turning cautious on AUD medium-term - Updated Mon September 3, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – August PMI to continue to slide • Taiwan – Inflation to remain elevated into early 2013 • US – ISM manufacturing to break even • Market focus • We keep s/term FX weighting on AUD at Neutral, cut m/term weighting...

  • 03-Sep-12 – Asian central banks to stay put - Updated Sun September 2, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – MoU signed with mainland China on currency arrangement • Nigeria – We revise the target on our long 7Y NGN bond position • UK – Manufacturing likely to remain in contraction • Market focus • Australia, Thailand a...

  • 24-Aug-12 – Stale minutes renew QE3 expectations - Updated Thu August 23, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Euro area – Greek PM pleads his extension case before Merkel • Taiwan – Leading indicators index should signal modest recovery • United States – Durable goods to bounce back • Market focus • FOMC minutes are a snapshot take...

  • 22-Aug-12 – Staying afloat against the current - Updated Tue August 21, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Local demand likely still supported industrial production • Singapore – Base effect responsible for lower headline inflation in July • Europe – August Flash PMIs to suggest ongoing recession in H2 • Market focus •...

  • 21-Aug-12 – ECB: fifty shades of bond-buying - Updated Mon August 20, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Jobless rate rises as more graduates enter the labour market • Japan – Sustained trade deficit likely because of declining exports • South Africa – CPI inflation to decelerate more, mining dispute in focus • Mark...

  • 17-Aug-12 – The new normal – EM central banks dominate price action - Updated Thu August 16, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Tech export orders to recover • Thailand – GDP to be driven by investment • United States – Consumer consolidation • Market focus • Non-USD G10 currencies have outperformed AXJ currencies, despite valuations • T...

  • 16-Aug-12 – Faltering risk appetite - Updated Wed August 15, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • China – Mainland bank data suggests USD demand and supply remain balanced • Singapore – We forecast a 6.5% y/y increase, supported by a low base effect • Taiwan – Final Q2 GDP print should not be too different from earlier es...

  • 06-Aug-12 – Asian central bank watch - Updated Sun August 5, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Easing inflation should turn higher soon • Taiwan – Exports likely still soft due to weak demand • Australia – No rush to cut rates • Market focus • We expect the RBA, BI and BoK to keep rates unchanged this ...

  • 03-Aug-12 – ECB helps those who help themselves - Updated Thu August 2, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Asian rates – We remain bullish on Asian bonds • Indonesia – An anchor of stability • Taiwan – Food price inflation likely surged to near a four-year high • Market focus • ECB announces bond buying plan to restore confidenc...

  • 30-Jul-12 – RBI to hold firm - Updated Sun July 29, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – Slow but steady growth in industrial production • Taiwan – Q2 preliminary GDP data to show economy reached a trough • Euro area – Focus is on politicians for more detail about ‘big plan’ • Market focus • RBI ...

  • 26-Jul-12 – When the PBoC blinks - Updated Wed July 25, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Weak retail sales in June likely amid growing deflation risk • Taiwan – Leading indicators index to reflect weak external demand • United States – We cautiously look for a durable goods rise • Market focus • PBoC’s...

  • 25-Jul-12 – The long and short of inflation - Updated Tue July 24, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • New Zealand – RBNZ to keep interest rates on hold • South Korea – GDP growth likely to be weaker in Q2 • Taiwan – Dividend outflows to impact the TWD • Market focus • Asian central banks to focus on short-term growth risks,...

  • 20-Jul-12 – The impact of the DM dynamic on EM - Updated Thu July 19, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – Inflation continues to fall • Taiwan – Production and hiring is likely to have slowed in June • Mexico – Banxico is expected to remain on hold • Market focus • ECB deposit-rate cut fuels revival in demand for ...

  • 19-Jul-12 – Raising the ZAR to Overweight - Updated Wed July 18, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Brazil – COPOM Minutes to point to further rate cuts • Euro area – Finance ministers to discuss Spanish bank bailout • Taiwan – Export orders likely declined • Market focus • We expect the SARB to keep the repo rate unch...

  • 06-Jul-12 – Foreign inflows to support SGS further - Updated Thu July 5, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – June’s exports to show a y/y rise • Japan – May machinery orders likely to have contracted m/m • United States – NFP should be better, but still not great • Market focus • The rally in SGS has gained momentum on st...



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Trade idea

17-Apr – China: Growth momentum slowed in Q1

Top 3 data/events • Japan – Trade deficit likely remained given import re-acceleration • Taiwan – Overseas demand likely supported export orders • US – Yellen sticks to her script in NY speech • Market focus • China’s Q1 GDP slowed to 7.4% y/y as credit and housing sales decelerated...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.