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  • 10-Jan – India’s inflation to slow; buy 5Y GoISecs - Updated Thu January 9, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Kenya – Policy rate expected to stay on hold until Q3 • Taiwan – TWD NEER weakness expected to aid export outlook • United States – A moderate increase in December payrolls is likely • Market focus • December CPI is likely...

  • 06-Jan – Bearish SEA, bullish NEA - Updated Sun January 5, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Latest export sales data likely to boost producers’ confidence • Australia – Trade balance expected to be in deficit for 23rd month • India – The SIGMA signal turns bullish for duration in January • Market focus • ...

  • 03-Jan – JPY fall extends into undervalued territory - Updated Thu January 2, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – PMI likely remained in expansionary territory • Taiwan – Inflation expected to inch up in 2014 • UK – Holiday period may have boosted services sector • Market focus • Policy divergence and widening rate spreads ...

  • 18-Dec – Risks to our FX calls - Updated Tue December 17, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • New Zealand – Q3-2013 GDP likely showed a rebound from the drought • Taiwan – Export orders to show improving demand into 2014 • United States – We expect a dovish Fed to keep QE at USD 85bn/month • Market focus • We remai...

  • 04-Dec – The tortoise and the hare - Updated Tue December 3, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – The SIGMA signal remains bearish for duration in December • Philippines – November inflation was likely higher • Taiwan – CPI inflation probably rebounded in November • Market focus • The UK’s official 2014 growth ...

  • 26-Nov – Adjusting our USD-AXJ forecasts - Updated Mon November 25, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Leading index expected to show economic momentum • Thailand – BoT likely to keep policy rate on hold • US – Housing recovery likely slowed in last two months • Market focus • We are adjusting selected USD-AXJ ...

  • 22-Nov – Client feedback: LA, London and Amsterdam - Updated Thu November 21, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – We revise our SGS yield forecasts for 2014-16 • Singapore – Inflation likely rose slightly in October • Taiwan – Rising export orders may have boost industrial production • Market focus • Investors believe Fed...

  • 19-Nov – Korea’s current account cross-over - Updated Mon November 18, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Inflation likely accelerated in October • Taiwan – October export orders to show a pick-up in overseas demand • Nigeria – MPR on hold, other tightening measures are difficult to rule out • Market focus • Japan’s...

  • Offshore Renminbi – RGI to get a further policy boost - Updated Thu November 7, 2013

    RGI re-accelerated in September, up 3.0% m/m to 1,183, thanks to another strong deposit performance • Policy breakthrough should provide impetus for faster growth in European market after a strong Q3 • Mainland issuers, led by the Ministry of Fina...

  • 06-Nov – Political uncertainty returns to Thailand - Updated Tue November 5, 2013

    3 data/events • Australia – Job data likely deteriorated slightly in September • Taiwan – October exports should provide insight into year-end demand • Brazil – Stopped out of our Jan-16 DI receiver • Market focus • Thailand’s path to sustaine...

  • 04-Nov – BNM on hold despite inflation risks - Updated Sun November 3, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Food inflation likely led to higher inflation in October • Taiwan – We expect higher m/m inflation for October • UK – Expansion in PMI services may have moderated in October • Market focus • We expect BNM t...

  • 25-Oct – China’s tight liquidity likely to be short-lived - Updated Thu October 24, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – LEI index likely to suggest economy is gaining momentum • Mexico – Banxico expected to cut, BanRep to hold • US – Solid manufacturing PMI and aircraft orders signal rising DGO • Market focus • China money-market r...

  • 18-Oct – The temporary debt-ceiling solution and Asia - Updated Thu October 17, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – First suspension of reverse repo operations in three months • Japan – Trade deficit to stay in the red due to higher import cost • Taiwan – Year-end holiday sales demand to help lift export orders • Market focus • ...

  • Asia Focus – Clearing skies - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in majo...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • 04-Oct – The last shoe to drop - Updated Thu October 3, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – A new low for the PBoC fix? • Japan – Current account likely to be eroded by rising trade deficit • Taiwan – Exports continue to grow; inflation risk rises • Market focus • Leveraged funds’ net USD positioning has...

  • 26-Sep – Halloween comes early - Updated Wed September 25, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Leading index likely rose on higher export sales • Japan – CPI inflation likely continued the uptrend • Euro area – Business and consumers are reluctantly more optimistic • Market focus • Tension is rising as ...

  • 25-Sep – Top Asian rates trades amid tapering delay - Updated Tue September 24, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – Government front-loads H2-FY14 market borrowing • Taiwan – CBC likely to hold policy rate steady; IP data on an uptrend • US – Core durable goods orders and new home sales likely rebounded • Market focus • Fed’s ta...

  • 24-Sep – Merkel triumphs; now for the tough part - Updated Mon September 23, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Top 3 Asian rates trades post-FOMC – Thailand, India and Singapore • Taiwan – Export orders to pick up ahead of year-end sales season • Vietnam – Q3 GDP likely rose moderately • Market focus • A victorious Angela Merkel...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Taiwan joins the RGI - Updated Mon September 9, 2013

    We add Taiwan to our RGI, in recognition of its rapid emergence as a key offshore Renminbi centre • Taiwan has plenty of room to grow, building on its early success in Renminbi deposit accumulation • Our RGI hit 1,112 in July, up 65% y/y, reflect...



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22-May – Selectively receive EM Asia rates

Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Prices may have continued to fall in April • Taiwan – We forecast slower IP growth in April on weak export sales • Japan – Trade balance likely turned negative again in April • Market focus • EM/DM yield spread was range-bound as foreign investors became...

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