We update our PCA for AXJ currencies; the rise in the global IP cycle should support AXJ FX in Q4
• We get positive PCA signals for TWD, PHP and IDR; neutral for other AXJ currencies
• We raise our short-term FX weightings on SGD and THB to Neut...
• Our SCTF Position Index shows clients remain substantially short USD vs. KRW, CNY, INR and SGD
• Clients in aggregate reduced USD shorts in July vs. CNH, CNY, KRW, TWD, SGD; increased vs. INR, MYR
• Custodian clients are substantially short USD ...
• Europe continues to represent the major risk to Asian economies and currencies
• But China’s policy easing should help provide a more solid footing for Asian growth in H2
• North-East Asian currencies, notably the KRW, should lead the recovery i...
• We are re-entering the Standard Chartered FX Real Money Portfolio
• The portfolio uses EUR as funding currency for longs in EM currencies (except CNY)
• Re-entering the portfolio pre-positions for improved cyclical news later in the year ...
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The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility.
In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.
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