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  • EM-21: Rising FX reserves and a rising USD [Correction] - Updated Wed April 1, 2015

    This supersedes the version dated 1 April 2015. Changes China’s FX reserves valuation adjustment. Our EM-21 Reserve Monitor shows that central bank reserves actually increased again in February Asia continues to accumulate reserves at a quickening...

  • Sell USD-CNH 3Mx12M DF - Updated Wed April 1, 2015

    We recommend selling USD-CNH 3Mx12M outright in the FX Trading Portfolio We expect stability in USD-CNY near-term as authorities calm depreciation worries ahead of IMF meeting We recommend being Neutral on the CNY against the USD in AXJ regional F...

  • 31-Mar – BoJ’s Tankan likely to show a mixed picture - Updated Mon March 30, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • UK – We expect the manufacturing PMI to have improved further • South Korea – CPI inflation was likely low; trade surplus likely increased • China – Manufacturing sector likely remained sluggish in March • Market focus • Bo...

  • China – SME confidence rebounds strongly in March - Updated Mon March 30, 2015

    The SME index rebounded to 60.6 in March, the highest level since our survey started in May 2014 Real activity rebounded after the Lunar New Year; labour-market conditions improved mildly Confidence in general credit conditions has improved follow...

  • Asia data previews – 27 Mar-3 Apr 2015 - Updated Fri March 27, 2015

    We expect mixed industrial production data for Japan, South Korea and Vietnam • CPI inflation in South Korea, Indonesia and Thailand likely remained low amid low global inflation • Manufacturing PMI likely improved slightly in China, stayed in con...

  • 25-Mar – Reading SARB signals - Updated Tue March 24, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – February export data likely distorted by Lunar New Year • Singapore – We expect IP to have contracted in January-February • Euro area – Pick-up in credit cycle likely continued in February • Market focus • We ...

  • China – Q&A on local government debt swap plan - Updated Tue March 24, 2015

    China announces CNY 1.0tn debt-for-bond swap plan for local governments This should reduce refinancing risk and lower local governments’ interest burden We see the proposed plan as positive for China’s sovereign credit profile The move is likely ...

  • Q2 – The new, new normal - Updated Fri March 20, 2015

    • Overview – In a challenging market environment, macroeconomic and policy divergence – the ‘new normal’ – remains the critical foundation of our updated views and forecasts, with the US economy, USD and US rates leading the way higher. This will ev...

  • SC FIRST – Caution over, as Fed not impatient to hike - Updated Fri March 20, 2015

    Foreign investor sentiment towards emerging markets has improved after the 18 March FOMC meeting EM funds remain overweight duration and still favour Indonesia, but are returning to Malaysia EM/DM yield spread to be range-bound as foreign investor...

  • Asia data previews – 20-27 March 2015 - Updated Fri March 20, 2015

    Inflation in Japan and Singapore likely slowed further in February We expect central banks in the Philippines and Taiwan to keep policy rates on hold for now Vietnam’s Q1 data to show steady growth, driven by solid FDI and exports...



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31-Mar – BoJ’s Tankan likely to show a...

Top 3 data/events • UK – We expect the manufacturing PMI to have improved further • South Korea – CPI inflation was likely low; trade surplus likely increased • China – Manufacturing sector likely remained sluggish in March • Market focus • BoJ’s Tankan likely indicates improving...

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