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  • 27-May – BoC: A believer in better times ahead - Updated Tue May 26, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – GDP growth likely remained healthy in Q1 • Hong Kong – Still too early to confirm an export recovery • Euro area – Economic sentiment likely deteriorated • Market focus • At its 27 May meeting, we see the BoC ...

  • Asia data previews – 24-29 May 2015 - Updated Fri May 22, 2015

    Inflation was likely muted across Asia in April; we expect April IP to have rebounded in Japan and Korea • India FY15 GDP may be lower than expected at 7.4% y/y despite first quarterly C/A surplus in five years • Likely strong Q1 GDP growth and e...

  • 20-May – ECB comments to offset any PMI pick-up - Updated Tue May 19, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • China – SAFE data shows FX demand, but stability still favoured • Hong Kong – Inflation likely to have edged lower in April • South Africa – We see the SARB as hawkish, but on hold • Market focus • Euro-area economy is stro...

  • SDR: One small step for China, one giant leap for CNY - Updated Tue May 19, 2015

    You are cordially invited to join us for an exclusive conference call presentation on Thursday 21 May 2015 16:00 SG/HK (8:00 GMT) • Becky Liu, Senior rates Strategist • Eddie Cheung, Asia FX Strategist • Callum Henderson, Head, FX Research Topi...

  • CNH CGB auction – Less supply amid more easing [Correction] - Updated Mon May 18, 2015

    This supersedes the version dated 18 May 2015. Changes target level for 10Y CNH CGB trade to 3.1%. • China’s Ministry of Finance will issue CNY 28bn offshore bonds in 2015 – half this week and half in H2 • Issuance amount is lower than expected; n...

  • Asia data previews – 15-22 May 2015 - Updated Fri May 15, 2015

    • The external sector likely weighed on Thailand’s Q1 GDP while supporting Japan’s Q1 GDP • We expect BI to cut the policy rate by 25bps in May and the BoJ to remain on hold • Inflation for April is likely to have edged lower in Hong Kong and acce...

  • Cambodia – Riding the ‘China plus one’ wave - Updated Fri May 15, 2015

    We recently visited Cambodia and met with public- and private-sector institutions • Cambodia is attracting international manufacturers seeking to diversify from China and other countries • Low labour costs, geographical advantage and pro-FDI polic...

  • SDR: One small step for China, one giant leap for CNY - Updated Fri May 15, 2015

    Renminbi’s SDR inclusion is only a matter of time; we now see a 60% probability this year • Renminbi broadly meets SDR criteria; capital account liberalisation to accelerate sharply in 2015 • We expect a persistent rise in global diversification i...

  • China – Below-7% growth highly likely in Q2 - Updated Fri May 15, 2015

    April data suggests the economy is not out of the woods yet; we forecast Q2 GDP growth at 6.7% y/y • PBoC may encourage policy lending, and rely more on RRR cuts to guide down the cost of funding • Fiscal policy has become more proactive; monetary...

  • 14-May – BoK likely to keep base rate on hold - Updated Wed May 13, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – CGPI may have contracted as the sales-tax effect faded • Hong Kong – We expect downside risks to Q1 GDP growth • Latam – We expect the BCCh and BCRP to keep rates unchanged • Market focus • We expect no BoK rate cut...

  • 12-May – China’s growth was likely weak in April [Correction] - Updated Tue May 12, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – C/A surplus likely reached a record high in March • Euro area – We expect GDP to have been buoyant in Q1 • Ghana – Monetary policy committee likely to hold prime rate at 21% • Market focus • April growth indices were...

  • Revisiting our Asian LCY bond-market views - Updated Mon May 11, 2015

    Global bond-market sell-off has affected Asian bond markets, albeit unevenly • We still like 5Y THB and MYR bonds; we widen the stop-loss level on our long 5Y THB bond trade • We remain Positive on IGBs and shift to long 5Y IGBs from long 10Y IGBs...

  • China cuts policy rate by 25bps - Updated Sun May 10, 2015

    Event • The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a broad-based policy rate cut on 10 May. It cut the deposit and lending rates by 25bps and lifted the deposit-rate ceiling to 1.5x the benchmark deposit rate from 1.3x, effective on 11 May. The on...

  • Asia data previews – 8-15 May 2015 - Updated Fri May 8, 2015

    China growth likely softened further in April, while inflation remained subdued • We expect the central banks of the Philippines and South Korea to keep policy rates on hold • IP growth in Malaysia probably eased in March; private consumption like...

  • 08-May – Greece: Low breakthrough prospects - Updated Thu May 7, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • India –The SIGMA signal is bearish; we remain Positive on IGBs • Sri Lanka – CBSL is likely to keep rates on hold in May • China – Inflation likely remained subdued in April • Market focus • Expectations for a breakthrough ...

  • PRD’s pain, China and ASEAN’s gain - Updated Thu May 7, 2015

    How PRD manufacturers are coping with challenges including labour shortage and wage pressure • What this means for the broader China economy • Why ASEAN can become the next PRD • Q&A...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Silver linings - Updated Thu May 7, 2015

    RGI fell in March, the first time since Oct-2012, on a weak CNY, lower deposits and less Dim Sum issuance • Since March, however, CNY has stabilised, southbound flows have risen and CNH liquidity has improved • Renminbi trade settlement remains s...

  • 07-May – US payrolls likely soldiered on - Updated Wed May 6, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • China – April trade data probably will show a modest export recovery • UK – We expect the BoE to keep the bank rate unchanged • Germany – Industrial production likely ticked up in March • Market focus • We see April payroll...

  • UK election: Initial thoughts - Updated Wed May 6, 2015

    You are cordially invited to join us for an exclusive conference call presentation on Friday 8 May 2015 with 2 sessions: (1) Asia – 16:00 SG/HK (08:00 GMT) and (2) New York – 10:00AM (14:00 GMT) with: • Sarah Hewin, Chief Economist, Europe (Host, s...

  • PRD’s pain, China and ASEAN’s gain - Updated Tue May 5, 2015

    Companies in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) – China’s leading manufacturing hub – still face plenty of challenges, according to our sixth annual survey of manufacturers in the region. A labour shortage persists, and wages are likely to rise 8.4% this y...



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27-May – BoC: A believer in better times...

Top 3 data/events • Philippines – GDP growth likely remained healthy in Q1 • Hong Kong – Still too early to confirm an export recovery • Euro area – Economic sentiment likely deteriorated • Market focus • At its 27 May meeting, we see the BoC maintaining its overnight lending rate at...

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