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  • Hong Kong – SMEs remain cautiously optimistic - Updated Tue April 22, 2014

    Our survey shows that SMEs are less optimistic on Q2-2014 than they were a quarter ago • The 50.8 reading is still consistent with business expansion; margin concerns have re-emerged • All three major industry sub-indices are above 51.0, boding we...

  • SCTF – Bearish flow signals for MYR and NGN - Updated Thu April 17, 2014

    Asia: In March, our clients were large USD sellers vs. CNY, SGD, INR; USD buyers vs. HKD, THB, CNH • Asia: Short USD positioning is large vs. INR, KRW, CNY; long USD positioning is large vs. IDR, CNH • Africa: SCTF Position Index shows clients are...

  • China – The expanding credit universe and the deleveraging challenge - Updated Thu April 17, 2014

    This slide pack shows what is happening with credit in China today • We show how WMPs work, how offshore borrowing is rising and how best to measure credit growth • Phase one of deleveraging – slower credit growth – has begun; we outline the next ...

  • China – Q1 was weak; Q2 will likely be weaker - Updated Wed April 16, 2014

    • China’s official Q1 GDP grew 7.4%, slightly outperforming market expectations • Growth in credit and housing sales, the key leading indicators, is decelerating • We adjust down our CPI inflation forecast for 2014 to 2.3% from 3.3% • Stimulus me...

  • Iron ore – Living with cash-tight consumers - Updated Wed April 16, 2014

    • Most iron ore buyers from China are cash-tight as banks withdraw financial support • We think more steel mills are likely to go bankrupt this year • We maintain a bearish view on iron ore prices in H2-2014 ...

  • 15-Apr – Draghi puts EUR strength in the crosshairs - Updated Mon April 14, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Growth momentum likely softened in Q1 • Euro area – CPI final print likely to match the preliminary data • US – Yellen to clarify view on long-run inflation, growth and FFTR • Market focus • Draghi’s IMF comments c...

  • Linking EM reallocations to Indonesian inflows - Updated Mon April 14, 2014

    We stay Neutral on Indonesian rates risk; we examine one of the positive external influences • New data shows a strong link between Russian, Turkish outflows and Indonesian inflows in Q1-2014 • The benefits for Indonesia, which we expect to conti...

  • 11-Apr – Indonesian rally to pause on election - Updated Thu April 10, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – MAS likely to maintain the status quo • China – Disappointing trade performance in March • US – 10Y UST yields touch bottom of range, important technical level • Market focus • Indonesian markets have sold off ...

  • Global trade unbundled - Updated Wed April 9, 2014

    Expanding supply chains and increased openness drove rapid trade growth in past decades • But trade has been weak since the 2008-09 crisis; there is talk of a structural slowdown • We believe the outlook is improving and trade will soon grow fas...

  • Offshore Renminbi – RGI unaffected by FX volatility - Updated Mon April 7, 2014

    • RGI rose 6.8% y/y in February; strong momentum likely carried over to March, despite volatile CNY • Appointment of clearing banks in Europe will boost Renminbi usage; deposits in Taiwan keep growing • Higher CNY volatility will be the post band-...

  • China onshore rates – Higher supply, neutral liquidity - Updated Mon April 7, 2014

    Onshore CGB yields are likely to rebound in Q2 on higher supply and normalisation of liquidity • CGB curve is likely to bear flatten in Q2 before re-steepening in H2; 10Y yield to revisit last year’s high • 7D repo may settle at 4.0-4.5% on lower ...

  • Global Focus conference call – The world in transition - Updated Sun March 30, 2014

    • You are cordially invited to join us for an exclusive conference call presentation (with Q&A) with: • Marios Maratheftis, Global Head, Macro Research • David Mann, Regional Head of Research, Asia • Daniel Tenengauzer, Regional Head of Re...

  • 31-Mar – Reserve Bank of India likely to stay on hold - Updated Sun March 30, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – PMI may show further moderation • South Korea – CPI inflation expected to be benign, even with recovery • Australia – RBA likely to maintain a ‘period of stability’ in rates • Market focus • Sharp correction in in...

  • Global Focus – The world in transition - Updated Fri March 28, 2014

    • Please note corrected time • You are cordially invited to join us for an exclusive conference call presentation (with Q&A) with: • Marios Maratheftis, Global Head, Macro Research • David Mann, Regional Head of Research, Asia • Daniel Te...

  • Global Focus – The world in transition - Updated Thu March 27, 2014

    • You are cordially invited to join us for an exclusive conference call presentation (with Q&A) with: • Marios Maratheftis, Global Head, Macro Research • David Mann, Regional Head of Research, Asia • Daniel Tenengauzer, Regional Head of Resea...

  • China – Real estate’s tough year - Updated Wed March 26, 2014

    We expect weaker prices, higher inventory levels and more developer insolvencies in 2014 • Trust financing is getting tighter, but overall government policy may be set to loosen in April • The situation in smaller cities is likely to be most serio...

  • China – The long, long march to SOE reform - Updated Mon March 24, 2014

    Local governments are selling minority stakes in SOEs, a small step forward • SOE exit from 'competitive' industries - a meaningful opening up to the private sector - is still a way off • An expert panel on SOE reform says central government pol...

  • 20-Mar – Colombia's gain is other EMs' pain - Updated Wed March 19, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Further heavy corporate FX selling in February • Malaysia – Inflation likely to remain on an uptrend • Mexico – Our MFCI still shows tight monetary conditions • Market focus • Colombia’s weight in EM bond indices w...

  • SCTF – Bearish flow signals for MYR and PHP - Updated Wed March 19, 2014

    • Asia: In February, our clients were large USD sellers vs. CNY and MYR; USD buyers vs. CNH, THB, TWD • Asia: Our custodian clients were sellers of USD vs. SGD and INR; buyers of USD vs. CNH, HKD and THB • Asia: Short USD positioning is large vs. ...

  • 19-Mar – Challenging the bear hug - Updated Tue March 18, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – Inflation begins to edge lower • New Zealand – Q4-2013 GDP likely reflected strong recovery momentum • Taiwan – Export orders likely to show an improving growth outlook • Market focus • Russia faces more sancti...



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15-Apr – Draghi puts EUR strength in the...

Top 3 data/events • China – Growth momentum likely softened in Q1 • Euro area – CPI final print likely to match the preliminary data • US – Yellen to clarify view on long-run inflation, growth and FFTR • Market focus • Draghi’s IMF comments caught attention but probably do not signal a...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.