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  • Asia data previews – 24 April-1 May 2015 - Updated Fri April 24, 2015

    BoJ may add JPY 10tn to its asset purchase programme and reconsider the inflation target timeline • BoT is likely finished with its easing cycle; the RBNZ may maintain its dovish stance but not ease as yet • China’s manufacturing sector is still u...

  • SCTF – Bearish flow signal for USD-MYR - Updated Thu April 23, 2015

    • G10: Custodian clients turned net USD-CAD sellers in March • Asia: SCTF Aggregate Flow Index shows that our clients turned net USD-IDR buyers • Africa: SCTF Aggregate Position Index shows that our clients are short USD-ZMW, long USD-ZAR • ...

  • 23-Apr – China SOE default: A blessing in disguise - Updated Wed April 22, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • United States – Underlying trend in new home sales is firming up • Germany – IFO business climate likely continued to improve • Vietnam – April data likely showed steady growth • Market focus • First SOE default likely to im...

  • Aluminium – Evolving surplus in China - Updated Tue April 21, 2015

    China’s aluminium production will likely remain strong in 2015 on aggressive capacity expansions • Improving smelting profitability owing to substantially lower power costs...

  • China onshore rates – Supply risk is real, curve to steepen - Updated Tue April 21, 2015

    This year’s local government issuance will start soon, likely crowding out demand for long-dated CGBs • Gross issuance of local government bonds will rise 4x to CNY 1.6tn this year, mostly long-dated • We expect more proactive easing in Q2 followi...

  • China delivers outsized RRR cut to ease downside - Updated Mon April 20, 2015

    Event – On 19 April, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a broad-based reserve required ratio (RRR) cut of 100bps for all banks, and an additional targeted RRR cut of 100-200bps for selected rural banks, effective 20 April. This is the secon...

  • US shocks – Quantifying the global impact - Updated Fri April 17, 2015

    • We model and assess the impact of US monetary policy shocks and US dollar strength on economies in Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America. • The main shock absorbers are currencies rather than real economies, except in fixed-exchange-rat...

  • 17-Apr – USD-CNY forecast revisions - Updated Thu April 16, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – March export orders likely supported by rising tech demand • Malaysia – Inflation to increase from April • US – March CPI inflation data likely to support the Fed’s ‘no rush’ view • Market focus • We raise CNY fore...

  • Asia data previews – 17-24 April 2015 - Updated Thu April 16, 2015

    Inflation likely eased in Australia, Hong Kong, New Zealand and Singapore, but not in Malaysia IP growth in Singapore and Taiwan may have weakened on base effects and subdued export orders Korea GDP growth likely remained weak in Q1 on slow cons...

  • China – Growth target at risk; more easing expected - Updated Wed April 15, 2015

    • GDP growth slowed further to 7.0% y/y in Q1, with few signs of a quick turnaround • Investment appears to be driving the downtrend; downside risk to our 2015 GDP growth forecast of 7.1% • We forecast one rate cut and one RRR cut by mid-2015, fol...



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23-Apr – China SOE default: A blessing in...

Top 3 data/events • United States – Underlying trend in new home sales is firming up • Germany – IFO business climate likely continued to improve • Vietnam – April data likely showed steady growth • Market focus • First SOE default likely to improve credit risk pricing in China’s onshore...

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