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  • 15-May – Bank Indonesia likely to lower BI rate - Updated Thu May 14, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Machinery orders likely improved slightly in March • Thailand – Faltering exports may have dragged down Q1 growth • Ghana – BoG policy rate may remain elevated for longer than expected • Market focus • We expect BI ...

  • Thailand – Faltering exports dim growth outlook - Updated Thu May 7, 2015

    We lower our 2015 GDP growth forecast to 4.1% to reflect weaker-than-expected exports and consumption • BoT may take further steps to support the export sector • We maintain our Positive outlook on THB bonds; we recommend holding long 5Y THB bonds...

  • Thailand – BoT makes another surprise rate cut - Updated Wed April 29, 2015

    Event – The Bank of Thailand (BoT) unexpectedly cut its policy rate again by 25bps to 1.50% at today’s meeting. We had expected it to keep the rate on hold. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 5-2 to cut the rate, aiming to boost the economy a...

  • 28-Apr – BoT likely to keep policy rate on hold - Updated Mon April 27, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • New Zealand – RBNZ likely to keep the cash rate at 3.50% in April • Japan – We expect the BoJ to ease further on 30 April • Euro area – Consumer confidence likely dipped in April • Market focus • We believe the BoT will kee...

  • Take profit on short SGD-THB trade - Updated Wed April 22, 2015

    We recommend taking profit on the short SGD-THB via 6M forward outright trade • We expect USD-SGD to remain under slight pressure in the near-term • We maintain short-term Neutral FX weighting on the THB and Underweight on the SGD...

  • 30-Mar – Euro area is gaining momentum - Updated Sun March 29, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – IP likely dropped during the Lunar New Year holiday • Thailand – Rising tourism income may have boosted C/A surplus • US – Soft core PCE inflation to keep September hike on track • Market focus • The euro area ...

  • 20-Mar – Yellen’s stance and the SGD - Updated Thu March 19, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – IP growth likely slowed, jobless rate edged higher in February • Thailand – We expect February trade data to show a surplus • Singapore – Inflation likely fell for a fourth consecutive month • Market focus • Yellen...

  • Cross-currents and vulnerability in AXJ currencies - Updated Tue March 17, 2015

    Asian currency performance has varied significantly this year, in line with our ‘cross-currents’ call • USD-AXJ is likely to see further upside in Q2 on valuation, policy divergence and flow volatility • We raise higher our USD-CNY, USD-IDR, USD-M...

  • 09-Mar – BoT to stay put on policy rate - Updated Sun March 8, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • China - Weak consumer confidence suggests further deflationary pressure • Philippines - Export growth seen rebounding modestly • China – Little support for band widening near-term • Market focus • We reiterate our call that...

  • Thailand – Significant beneficiary of lower oil prices - Updated Thu March 5, 2015

    Falling global oil prices should boost growth, lower inflation, and lead to a current account surplus • However, we cut our 2015 GDP growth forecast to 5.1% to reflect delayed execution of public investment • We now expect the BoT to stay on hold ...

  • Thailand – What Thai clients think - Updated Tue February 3, 2015

    Client sentiment in Bangkok is firmer in 2015 than 2014 • Europe is the biggest concern for 2015, while concerns about Thailand have eased • Thai clients maintain a bearish view on the Thai baht...

  • 30-Jan – Beware Greeks bearing tail-risks - Updated Thu January 29, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – We expect inflation to have fallen in January • South Korea – January exports boosted by more working days • Thailand – Inflation was likely subdued in January on falling oil prices • Market focus • Signs of inv...

  • Sell SGD-THB via 6M forward outright - Updated Wed January 28, 2015

    • We recommend selling SGD-THB via 6M forward outright in the FX Trading Portfolio • In the wake of the surprise MAS move, we analyse the best way to express a bearish SGD move • We have a bullish, non-consensus view on Thailand; short SGD-THB has...

  • 27-Jan – BoT to keep rates on hold - Updated Mon January 26, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – We expect BNM to keep policy rates unchanged • Australia – Q4-2014 inflation was likely lower at 1.8% y/y • US – Fed in ‘hibernation’; statement should repeat ‘patience’ • Market focus • We reiterate our call tha...

  • 22-Jan – Greece’s election heralds a move to the left - Updated Wed January 21, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – We expect Q4 GDP growth to have slowed • Thailand – Trade account likely improved further • Taiwan – IP data to show the economy in better shape than in 2010-11 • Market focus • Anti-bailout, left-wing Syriza...

  • Cross-currents – Relative value in Asia [Correction] - Updated Fri January 9, 2015

    This supersedes the version dated 9 January 2015. On page 12, amends CNH forecasts. • AXJ currencies were resilient in 2014 – good for investors but not so favourable for AXJ exporters • The oil-price slide will help external imbalances, but furth...

  • 08-Jan – ASEAN reforms as oil prices fall - Updated Wed January 7, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – External and retail trade likely contracted in November • Philippines – We expect good, but not great, export growth • Germany – Industrial production likely increased at a steady rate • Market focus • Indonesia...

  • 16-Dec – Abenomics 2.0 is unlikely - Updated Mon December 15, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Inflation is likely to remain muted • Thailand – We expect the BoT to stay put on rates • UK – Labour-market slack likely diminished further • Market focus • The ruling bloc wins a super-majority in the lower h...

  • 28-Nov – No quick fix to China’s growth - Updated Thu November 27, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – We expect inflation to have spiked in November • South Korea – Exports likely slowed in November • Thailand – November inflation was likely subdued • Market focus • We expect China’s official manufacturing PMI ...

  • SC FIRST – Lower oil prices, higher flows to EM debt - Updated Wed November 26, 2014

    Direction signal now neutral from negative as foreign flows to EM debt, especially oil importers, improve • Spread signal turns positive on flows to high-yielding oil importers (INR, ZAR, TRY, IDR) plus Brazil • October fund allocations reflect ...



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15-May – Bank Indonesia likely to lower...

Top 3 data/events • Japan – Machinery orders likely improved slightly in March • Thailand – Faltering exports may have dragged down Q1 growth • Ghana – BoG policy rate may remain elevated for longer than expected • Market focus • We expect BI to lower the BI rate by 25bps, but keep the...

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