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  • Close short THB vs. 50/50 USD and EUR - Updated Wed April 9, 2014

    Broad USD weakness, technicals and positioning could support the THB further near-term • Real-money funds are underweight Thai local markets; as they cover their shorts, THB could rally further • Fundamentally, we like this trade and will look to...

  • Sell THB vs. 50/50 USD and EUR - Updated Wed February 19, 2014

    We forecast USD-THB at 34.00 at end-Q2 on slowing growth, political deadlock • Technicals are turning bullish for USD-THB again; our SCTF data indicates light positioning in USD-THB • THB-US 10Y spread has fallen which according to our PCA analysi...

  • 14-Feb – USD strength to be delayed but not reversed - Updated Thu February 13, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Consumption and investment likely boosted Q4-2013 GDP • Singapore – Exports may remain positive despite potential distortion • Thailand – Political unrest likely took its toll on Q4-2013 GDP • Market focus • The US...

  • 05-Feb – AXJ FX PCA: Global weakness, local strength - Updated Tue February 4, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – BSP likely to keep policy rates unchanged • Thailand – Close THB 2/5Y IRS steepener for a loss of 9bps • UK – BoE policy on hold while market braces for the Inflation Report • Market focus • We update our P...

  • 31-Jan – AXJ FX to weaken on China slowdown fears - Updated Thu January 30, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – Inflation likely to have accelerated m/m in January • Thailand – Upside risks to inflation • US – January’s Chicago PMI: A taste of things to come in Q1 • Market focus • We forecast China January PMI manufacturi...

  • 30-Jan – A 10bn tapering goodbye - Updated Wed January 29, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – Trade was likely slower and inflation benign in January • Thailand – Political unrest likely to hit the current account • Euro area – Downward inflationary pressure tests ECB tolerance • Market focus • The ...

  • 21 Jan – We expect the BoT to keep rates on hold - Updated Mon January 20, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Inflation likely rose in December; to trend higher in 2014 • Taiwan – Economic activity rebound likely boosted December hiring • UK – Forward guidance under scrutiny as unemployment nears 7% Market focus • We see...

  • 03-Dec – Trip notes: Hong Kong investors - Updated Mon December 2, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Thailand – No more negotiations to end anti-government protests • Australia – Q3 GDP growth likely remained below trend at 0.7% q/q • Brazil – Growth expected to show a contraction in Q3 • Market focus • HK investors are b...

  • 29-Nov – Pricing CNY into year-end - Updated Thu November 28, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – Imports continue to grow as the economy recovers • Thailand – Take profit on receive THB 3Y IRS • USD-CAD – We are raising the stop-loss on our long position Market focus • China’s official manufacturing PMI ...

  • 26-Nov – Adjusting our USD-AXJ forecasts - Updated Mon November 25, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Leading index expected to show economic momentum • Thailand – BoT likely to keep policy rate on hold • US – Housing recovery likely slowed in last two months • Market focus • We are adjusting selected USD-AXJ ...



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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.