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  • Close short THB vs. 50/50 USD and EUR - Updated Wed April 9, 2014

    Broad USD weakness, technicals and positioning could support the THB further near-term • Real-money funds are underweight Thai local markets; as they cover their shorts, THB could rally further • Fundamentally, we like this trade and will look to...

  • Sell THB vs. 50/50 USD and EUR - Updated Wed February 19, 2014

    We forecast USD-THB at 34.00 at end-Q2 on slowing growth, political deadlock • Technicals are turning bullish for USD-THB again; our SCTF data indicates light positioning in USD-THB • THB-US 10Y spread has fallen which according to our PCA analysi...

  • 14-Feb – USD strength to be delayed but not reversed - Updated Thu February 13, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Consumption and investment likely boosted Q4-2013 GDP • Singapore – Exports may remain positive despite potential distortion • Thailand – Political unrest likely took its toll on Q4-2013 GDP • Market focus • The US...

  • 05-Feb – AXJ FX PCA: Global weakness, local strength - Updated Tue February 4, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – BSP likely to keep policy rates unchanged • Thailand – Close THB 2/5Y IRS steepener for a loss of 9bps • UK – BoE policy on hold while market braces for the Inflation Report • Market focus • We update our P...

  • 31-Jan – AXJ FX to weaken on China slowdown fears - Updated Thu January 30, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – Inflation likely to have accelerated m/m in January • Thailand – Upside risks to inflation • US – January’s Chicago PMI: A taste of things to come in Q1 • Market focus • We forecast China January PMI manufacturi...

  • 30-Jan – A 10bn tapering goodbye - Updated Wed January 29, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – Trade was likely slower and inflation benign in January • Thailand – Political unrest likely to hit the current account • Euro area – Downward inflationary pressure tests ECB tolerance • Market focus • The ...

  • 21 Jan – We expect the BoT to keep rates on hold - Updated Mon January 20, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Inflation likely rose in December; to trend higher in 2014 • Taiwan – Economic activity rebound likely boosted December hiring • UK – Forward guidance under scrutiny as unemployment nears 7% Market focus • We see...

  • 03-Dec – Trip notes: Hong Kong investors - Updated Mon December 2, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Thailand – No more negotiations to end anti-government protests • Australia – Q3 GDP growth likely remained below trend at 0.7% q/q • Brazil – Growth expected to show a contraction in Q3 • Market focus • HK investors are b...

  • 29-Nov – Pricing CNY into year-end - Updated Thu November 28, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – Imports continue to grow as the economy recovers • Thailand – Take profit on receive THB 3Y IRS • USD-CAD – We are raising the stop-loss on our long position Market focus • China’s official manufacturing PMI ...

  • 26-Nov – Adjusting our USD-AXJ forecasts - Updated Mon November 25, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Leading index expected to show economic momentum • Thailand – BoT likely to keep policy rate on hold • US – Housing recovery likely slowed in last two months • Market focus • We are adjusting selected USD-AXJ ...

  • Close short SGD-THB - Updated Tue November 19, 2013

    • Bond-driven currencies like THB are likely to underperform near-term on fund outflows, bond selling • Better Singapore data and the safe-haven nature of the SGD make it inappropriate as a funding currency • We close this trade, focusing on curr...

  • 15-Nov – EM-21 central banks ‘self-insure’ - Updated Thu November 14, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Thailand – Economy likely recovered from a technical recession • Singapore – NODX to contract at a slower pace • India – New inflows but also new INR volatility • Market focus • EM-21 reserves increased in September, Octo...

  • 30-Oct – Fed tapering: See you again, but next year - Updated Tue October 29, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Thailand – Economic conditions likely improved in September • Japan – Markets will watch the BoJ’s semi-annual economic review • Mexico – We take profit on our 5Y TIIE receiver • Market focus • The Fed is expected to k...

  • What Thai clients think - Updated Tue October 22, 2013

    Local optimism about Thailand’s growth prospects has rebounded to early-2011 levels • Optimism about growth in the Mekong delta region is particularly strong • Europe dropped off the ‘areas of concern’ list, to be replaced by US and local concerns...

  • Asia Focus – Clearing skies - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in majo...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • 27-Sep – Euro-area policy, politics and economics - Updated Thu September 26, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Thailand – Modest current account deficit expected for August • Vietnam – Revision of USD-VND FX Forecasts • South Korea – Industrial production likely rebounded in August • Market focus • Unpredictable politics in Austria...

  • 24-Sep – Merkel triumphs; now for the tough part - Updated Mon September 23, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Top 3 Asian rates trades post-FOMC – Thailand, India and Singapore • Taiwan – Export orders to pick up ahead of year-end sales season • Vietnam – Q3 GDP likely rose moderately • Market focus • A victorious Angela Merkel...

  • Sell SGD-THB - Updated Wed September 18, 2013

    Thai/US rates spreads have risen since early July, which should support the THB • Postponement of Fed QE3 ‘tapering’ to support inflows into THB bonds; policy band to cap SGD gains • Our SCTF data indicates that clients have reduced short USD-TH...

  • Asian FX PCA – AXJ to rally in Q4 on growth - Updated Mon September 9, 2013

    We update our PCA for AXJ currencies; the rise in the global IP cycle should support AXJ FX in Q4 • We get positive PCA signals for TWD, PHP and IDR; neutral for other AXJ currencies • We raise our short-term FX weightings on SGD and THB to Neut...



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