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  • 24-Apr – Moment of truth for the JPY trade - Updated Wed April 23, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Trade deficit likely narrowed in February • Singapore – IP likely remained robust in March • US – Still waiting for the corporate capex boom • Market focus • We expect Japan’s core CPI inflation to have rema...

  • 16-Apr – Food prices rise on weather and geopolitics - Updated Tue April 15, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – NODX growth likely to have accelerated in March • Canada – Bank of Canada likely to keep policy rate unchanged • US – Spring recovery in housing may be gradual • Market focus • Weather risks and geopolitical con...

  • Singapore – MAS sees rising domestic inflation - Updated Mon April 14, 2014

    MAS keeps SGD NEER policy band slope, width and centre unchanged; policy unchanged since Apr-12 • MAS maintains focus on upside pressure on core inflation, reduces headline inflation forecast • SGD NEER should weaken 0.5% in the coming three mont...

  • 11-Apr – Indonesian rally to pause on election - Updated Thu April 10, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – MAS likely to maintain the status quo • China – Disappointing trade performance in March • US – 10Y UST yields touch bottom of range, important technical level • Market focus • Indonesian markets have sold off ...

  • Offshore Renminbi – RGI unaffected by FX volatility - Updated Mon April 7, 2014

    • RGI rose 6.8% y/y in February; strong momentum likely carried over to March, despite volatile CNY • Appointment of clearing banks in Europe will boost Renminbi usage; deposits in Taiwan keep growing • Higher CNY volatility will be the post band-...

  • Singapore – MAS to maintain the status quo - Updated Wed April 2, 2014

    We expect the MAS to maintain its current monetary policy stance in April • Current inflation levels are benign, although upside risks to core inflation remain • SGD NEER to strengthen ahead of MPS; enter SGD IRS 1Y/3Y/10Y butterfly, SGD IRS 3Y/1...

  • 01-Apr – UST volatility and EM catch-up - Updated Mon March 31, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – We expect the PMI to remain above the 50 threshold • Europe – New offshore Renminbi centres set to get a boost • US – ISM data is likely to thaw gradually • Market focus • The sharp fall in UST implied volatili...

  • Receive SGD IRS 1Y/3Y/10Y butterfly - Updated Thu March 27, 2014

    SGD IRS has risen by 15-20bps over the past week on expectations of a steeper UST yield curve • We are Negative on SGS and SGD IRS given heavy long-duration SGS supply, a steeper UST curve • Our RV signals for swaps identify the 3Y SGD IRS as che...

  • 25-Mar – The trans-Tasman twist - Updated Mon March 24, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – IP growth was likely strong in February • Euro area – US seeking a united front with EU against Russia • US – Corporate investment is still not in the data • Market focus • The NZ economy has been solid in recen...

  • 21-Mar – Divergence in the dollar bloc - Updated Thu March 20, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Inflation likely remained modest in February • Taiwan – Industrial production to show recovery gaining momentum • Euro area – Geopolitical tensions may bruise PMIs • Market focus • NZD outperforms due to a str...

  • 14-Mar – Asian fixed income outperforms CEMEA’s - Updated Thu March 13, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – February exports likely benefited from a low base • Philippines – Remittance growth likely remained buoyant in January • China – Growth moderated, but official data complicates the reading • Market focus • Indon...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Big Apple, bigger Renminbi - Updated Fri March 7, 2014

    • We add New York to our RGI, reflecting rising Renminbi payment flows and CNH FX turnover • New York enjoys time-zone advantage, massive trade with China, and rising investor interest in the RMB • We summarise the latest Renminbi developments in...

  • 28-Feb – Manageable inflation in Asia - Updated Thu February 27, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – PMI likely maintained a positive but weak signal • South Korea – Trade expected to have increased in February • China – Manufacturing sector likely saw a mild expansion in February • Market focus • Asia will se...

  • 25-Feb – Singapore investor roundtable: Optimistic bears - Updated Mon February 24, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – January industrial production likely softer • Hong Kong – Scaling back one-off fiscal concessions • South Africa – Fiscal consolidation in an election year • Market focus • We held a Singapore investor roundtabl...

  • 21-Feb – China FX reform ahead of G20 - Updated Thu February 20, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Inflation probably remained benign in January • Taiwan – IP growth likely dipped in January due to the seasonal effect • Germany – IFO expectations to gauge corporate sentiment • Market focus • Chinese authoriti...

  • 14-Feb – USD strength to be delayed but not reversed - Updated Thu February 13, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Consumption and investment likely boosted Q4-2013 GDP • Singapore – Exports may remain positive despite potential distortion • Thailand – Political unrest likely took its toll on Q4-2013 GDP • Market focus • The US...

  • Extending RV tools to non-deliverable swaps - Updated Thu January 23, 2014

    NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION IN INDIA • We extend our RV tools for swaps to include non-deliverable (ND) swaps • New RV signals: USD 1YF 2Y/9Y steepener • New NDIRS RV signals: TWD 1Y/5Y steepener • Of the 13 signals closed since we launched our RV mod...

  • 23-Jan – Trip notes from Japan - Updated Wed January 22, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Upside to IP expected to be muted • Vietnam – Jan inflation likely edged higher, but still controllable • US – Existing home sales were likely up slightly in December • Market focus • Japanese clients are positi...

  • 22-Jan – Korea likely to show steady Q4 GDP growth - Updated Tue January 21, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Latest IP data may show a rebound in economic activity • Singapore – Lower transport inflation likely slowed December inflation • Canada – Bank of Canada likely to leave policy rate unchanged • Market focus • Q4 G...

  • 16-Jan – Upside risks to Thailand’s inflation - Updated Wed January 15, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – NODX likely improved further in December • Chile – Rates on hold, but an easing bias • United States – Inflation remains subdued; Fed rate hike still distant • Market focus • We see upside risks to Thailand’s in...



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Trade idea

16-Apr – Food prices rise on weather and...

Top 3 data/events • Singapore – NODX growth likely to have accelerated in March • Canada – Bank of Canada likely to keep policy rate unchanged • US – Spring recovery in housing may be gradual • Market focus • Weather risks and geopolitical concerns have lifted food prices • Inventories...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.