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  • 25-May – Greece begs to differ - Updated Sun May 24, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore - Manufacturing sector likely remained lacklustre in April • Philippines – Trade deficit likely narrowed on stronger export growth • US – April a temporary hiatus in an otherwise weak durables trend • Market focus ...

  • 22-May – Selectively receive EM Asia rates - Updated Thu May 21, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Prices may have continued to fall in April • Taiwan – We forecast slower IP growth in April on weak export sales • Japan – Trade balance likely turned negative again in April • Market focus • EM/DM yield spread w...

  • Receive SGD versus pay USD 1Y, 2Y forwards - Updated Wed May 20, 2015

    We recommend receiving SGD 1Y, 2Y forward swaps versus paying them in USD • Front ends of SGD and USD rates are correlated and provide an attractive relative-value opportunity • We see downside risk to our Q2 USD-SGD forecasts, which should be sup...

  • Singapore clients more concerned about Indonesia than Thailand - Updated Tue May 19, 2015

    Our Singapore client visits reveal a divergence in outlook for the Indonesian and Thai economies • Clients are worried about Indonesia’s slowing economy, policy inconsistencies, and a weakening IDR • Most of our clients are concerned that the BoT ...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Silver linings - Updated Thu May 7, 2015

    RGI fell in March, the first time since Oct-2012, on a weak CNY, lower deposits and less Dim Sum issuance • Since March, however, CNY has stabilised, southbound flows have risen and CNH liquidity has improved • Renminbi trade settlement remains s...

  • 01-May – A reality check for EUR rates - Updated Thu April 30, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – We expect inflation to have picked up slightly in April • Singapore – PMI likely contracted for a fifth consecutive month • Euro area – The next two weeks are key for Greece • Market focus • Sudden steepening i...

  • Korea – IRS curve to steepen on MBS hedging - Updated Fri April 24, 2015

    We expect the IRS 2Y/5Y and 2Y/10Y curves to steepen on MBS hedging flows 5Y-10Y KTB yields are likely to rise on increasing duration risk Discussions on a supplementary budget are likely to start in late Q2; we think the BoK will remain dovish...

  • 22-Apr – Clouds gather over the INR - Updated Tue April 21, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – IP likely contracted again in March • Taiwan – IP data likely to have slowed due to base effects • South Korea – Q1 GDP likely to have been subdued • Market focus • India’s equity-market outperformance has stalle...

  • 21-Apr – CBRT – Monetary policy consternation - Updated Mon April 20, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Q1 inflation was likely lower at 1.3% y/y • Singapore – Inflation likely decreased further in March • UK – BoE minutes likely to show unanimous rate decision in April • Market focus • We think the CBRT will leav...

  • 16-Apr – Greece on a tightrope - Updated Wed April 15, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – NODX growth likely remained muted in March • Euro area – CPI likely to match flash at -0.1% y/y • UK – Labour-market slack likely diminished further • Market focus • Greek government and the ‘institutions’ are ...

  • Singapore – MAS in wait-and-see mode - Updated Tue April 14, 2015

    • MAS keeps SGD NEER policy band’s slope, width and centre unchanged, after easing in January • GDP growth surprised positively in Q1, and is likely to improve as the year progresses • We expect a gradual move higher in USD-SGD (Q2: 1.39), driven ...

  • Receive SGD 2Y IRS on MAS’ unchanged policy - Updated Tue April 14, 2015

    We recommend receiving SGD 2Y IRS on MAS’ unchanged FX policy • The SGS and SGD IRS curve should steepen on the outperformance of the front end • The UST/SGS spread should normalise, and is likely to move to positive spread territory in the near t...

  • Singapore – MAS maintains monetary policy stance - Updated Tue April 14, 2015

    Event – The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) kept its monetary policy stance unchanged on 14 April. Consensus was divided on whether it would ease or make no change to its Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (SGD NEER) policy. For ...

  • 10-Apr – Our call on a MAS move is a close one - Updated Thu April 9, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • India – March CPI likely edged up owing to unseasonal rain • China – Weak demand may have weighed on trade growth • Japan – Feb MoR likely shrank, Mar PPI inflation likely slowed • Market focus • We expect the MAS to recent...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Pausing before a likely leap - Updated Wed April 8, 2015

    Our RGI rose 0.14% m/m in February on lower deposits in Hong Kong and slower cross-border flows • Likely inclusion of the Renminbi in the IMF’s SDR basket could lead to faster internationalisation • The launch of China’s deposit insurance scheme i...

  • 01-Apr – US – The payroll/GDP debate - Updated Tue March 31, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – We expect the PMI to have remained weak • Turkey – Headline CPI likely eased in March • FX – Our forecasts for 2015 and 2016 • Market focus • We look for a moderation in payroll growth: our forecast is 230,000 ...

  • 25-Mar – Reading SARB signals - Updated Tue March 24, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – February export data likely distorted by Lunar New Year • Singapore – We expect IP to have contracted in January-February • Euro area – Pick-up in credit cycle likely continued in February • Market focus • We ...

  • 20-Mar – Yellen’s stance and the SGD - Updated Thu March 19, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – IP growth likely slowed, jobless rate edged higher in February • Thailand – We expect February trade data to show a surplus • Singapore – Inflation likely fell for a fourth consecutive month • Market focus • Yellen...

  • 16-Mar – BoJ will likely move in April not March - Updated Sun March 15, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore - We expect modest NODX growth in January-February • Turkey – CBRT will likely keep rates unchanged • South Africa – C/A deficit to highlight ongoing vulnerability • Market focus • We expect no BoJ easing at the 16...

  • 12-Mar – TRY: The party’s over - Updated Wed March 11, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Switzerland – FX irony • Singapore – Retail sales likely remained sluggish in January • United States – Oil boost still not in the spending data • Market focus • Political interference in monetary policy has been in focus ...



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Trade idea

25-May – Greece begs to differ

Top 3 data/events • Singapore - Manufacturing sector likely remained lacklustre in April • Philippines – Trade deficit likely narrowed on stronger export growth • US – April a temporary hiatus in an otherwise weak durables trend • Market focus • This week will be key if Greece is to...

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