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  • 01-Feb-13 – The euro and the currency wars - Updated Thu January 31, 2013

    • Singapore – PMI likely remained in contractionary territory • Oil – Rising crude prices are likely to be reined in • US – Lacklustre public-sector job data probably weighed on payrolls ...

  • Positive Asian bond demand vs. supply in 2013 - Updated Tue January 22, 2013

    Demand and supply dynamics are favourable in South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines and Taiwan • Foreign demand to remain strong in 2013, particularly as RMFs shift focus back to Asia from CEMEA • Buy 10Y (LB236A) THB bonds, as curve is steep and...

  • 22-Jan-13 – Asian inflation remains tolerable - Updated Mon January 21, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore/Thailand – Target on short SGD-THB extended • Taiwan – Strong IP likely boosted Q4-2012 GDP • UK – PM Cameron to seek ‘fresh consent’ on EU relationship • Market focus • Asian inflation remains tolerable for now ...

  • 16-Jan-13 – CNY forecast revised higher on surplus - Updated Tue January 15, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – We expect unemployment to have remain steady at 5.2% • Singapore – NODX likely contracted again in December 2012 • South Korea – MoSF announces the new 2013 KTB supply calendar • Market focus • China’s bank FX h...

  • 14-Jan-13 – BOJ under pressure - Updated Sun January 13, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Marginal improvement likely in November retail sales • Philippines – Consolidation in remittance growth in November • UK – Inflation is still sticky, but is likely to decelerate in 2013 • Market focus • Japan’...

  • 03-Jan-13 – Cliff-hanger, the sequel - Updated Wed January 2, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Domestic investors likely stepped up foreign bond purchases • Philippines – CPI inflation momentum probably accelerated • Singapore – PMI likely to reflect subdued sentiment • Market focus • The US avoided the fisca...

  • 14-Dec-12 – Top FX trades for 2013 - Updated Thu December 13, 2012

    Key events and data • India – RBI likely to wait for inflation to decline • Japan – The LDP looks set to return to power • Singapore – Marginal improvements expected for November NODX • Market focus • We expect a stronger and volatile H1-2013...

  • 13-Dec-12 – The nail that gets hammered down - Updated Wed December 12, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • India – Uptick expected in November WPI inflation • Singapore – Retail sales picking up slowly • EU – Survey data likely to indicate ongoing downturn • Market focus • Japan’s economy needs radical action, which an LDP vict...

  • 03-Dec-12 – GolSecs to rally on RBI OMOs - Updated Sun December 2, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – We expect the RBA to keep the policy rate on hold • Singapore – PMI likely stayed negative • US – ISM to improve but progress remains slow • Market focus • India’s Q2-FY13 GDP in line with consensus at 5.3%; gr...

  • 23-Nov-12 – Copper struggles as China builds stock - Updated Thu November 22, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – Authorities signal their response to KRW gains • Singapore – Industrial production may rebound • Thailand – Base effects to boost export growth • Market focus • We recommend selling into rallies in copper, as ...

  • 22-Nov-12 – From ‘RoRo’ to relative value - Updated Wed November 21, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – Inflation continues to test cyclical bottom • Singapore – Limited respite likely on the inflation front • Taiwan – Production data likely to show improving economic activity • Market focus • The focus on risk-on/...

  • 15-Nov-12– AXJ FX rally supports bond inflows - Updated Wed November 14, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Export outlook is likely to remain murky • Malaysia – GDP growth was likely supported by the services sector • US – Energy-price drop probably tempered inflation in October • Market focus • Foreign inflows to A...

  • 05-Nov-12 – The lucky currency - Updated Sun November 4, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – CPI inflation momentum was likely flat • Singapore – PMI likely improved but stayed in contractionary territory • United States – Strong sales imply better ISM non-manufacturing • Market focus • We expect the ...

  • 01-Nov-12 – The search for carry trades in EM - Updated Wed October 31, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Unemployment remains low • Uganda – Monetary policy easing to continue, with a 100bps rate cut expected • US – ISM set to improve, but progress remains slow • Market focus • QE3 continues to encourage foreign in...

  • 24-Oct-2012 – Defending South Africa’s rating - Updated Tue October 23, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Industrial production is likely to have been lacklustre • Philippines – We expect BSP to cut rates by 25bps on 25 October • US – After September’s FOMC fireworks, we see little spark in October • Market focus • ...

  • 22-Oct-12 – Peering over the fiscal cliff - Updated Sun October 21, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Sticky inflation • Taiwan – Industrial production to rebound on exports • Philippines – We are bullish on PHP bonds ahead of the BSP meeting • Market focus • US data is much improved, but the fiscal cliff will be...

  • 16-Oct-2012 – Bank of Thailand to hold this week - Updated Mon October 15, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Export outlook remains murky • Malaysia – Inflation in September was likely stable at 1.5% • UK – BoE minutes to indicate whether more QE is likely • Market focus • We expect the Bank of Thailand to keep rates o...

  • Singapore – MAS surprisingly maintains tight policy - Updated Fri October 12, 2012

    Event: The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) surprised the market and decided to keep its monetary policy stance unchanged on 12 October. We estimate that the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (SGD NEER) policy band slope remains ...

  • 12-Oct-12 – The daily tug-of-war in CNY - Updated Thu October 11, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Remittance growth is steady but slowing • Singapore – Poor retail sales growth owing to a weak growth outlook • India – September inflation is expected at 7.6% • Market focus • China’s September and Q3 data li...

  • Singapore – Pay SGD 2Y IRS - Updated Tue October 9, 2012

    We expect the MAS to lower the slope of its policy band to 2% per annum from 3.25% on 12 October • USD-SGD 6M SOR is likely to rise on MAS’ changed FX stance; flows may also support a move higher • We recommend paying SGD 2Y IRS; current: 56.5bp...



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16-Apr – Food prices rise on weather and...

Top 3 data/events • Singapore – NODX growth likely to have accelerated in March • Canada – Bank of Canada likely to keep policy rate unchanged • US – Spring recovery in housing may be gradual • Market focus • Weather risks and geopolitical concerns have lifted food prices • Inventories...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.