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  • 27-May – Trip notes: Europe, US client roadshow - Updated Mon May 26, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – April retail sales likely contracted after the sales tax hike • Singapore – Take profit on receive SGD IRS 1Y/3Y/10Y • Thailand – The military considers measures to boost growth • Market focus • Investor mood and r...

  • 23-May – IGBs to outperform IDR bonds - Updated Thu May 22, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – IP growth likely remained positive in April • Japan – BoJ minutes may show how the board views the recovery • US – New home sales likely picked up modestly in April • Market focus • Politics, valuations and mar...

  • 22-May – Dollar, disinflation and divergence - Updated Wed May 21, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – IP data to show recovery gaining strength • Singapore – April inflation was likely distorted by government rebates • Germany – IFO business climate index likely lost momentum • Market focus • AXJ currencies hav...

  • Buy SGS versus DM government bonds - Updated Mon May 19, 2014

    We recommend buying SGS versus the WGBI SGD NEER, targeting 70bps from 39bps currently • We turn Positive duration on SGS given our Neutral UST outlook and historically low WGBI/SGS spread • SGD 5Y swaps are also co-integrated against the WGBI S...

  • 16-May – Euro area hopes for a spring awakening - Updated Thu May 15, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Thailand – We expect GDP to have contracted 1.4% q/q SA in Q1 • Singapore – Take profit on SGD IRS 3Y/10Y steepener • Japan – Machinery orders likely rebounded in March • Market focus • Surveys suggest a better outlook for...

  • 15-May – Politics is supportive of AXJ bonds - Updated Wed May 14, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – NODX to improve in April • Malaysia – We expect stronger Q1 GDP growth • US – Core CPI to may remain in check; Fed still in no rush to hike rates • Market focus • IDR bonds should remain supported and we maintai...

  • Offshore RMB – Survey suggests steady RGI growth - Updated Wed May 7, 2014

    RGI rose 9.4% m/m in March, the fastest since Sep-11, despite slowing China growth and FX uncertainty • Survey suggests CNH growth will remain solid; respondents want more cross-border Renminbi channels • Offshore companies prefer to settle trade...

  • 24-Apr – Moment of truth for the JPY trade - Updated Wed April 23, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Trade deficit likely narrowed in February • Singapore – IP likely remained robust in March • US – Still waiting for the corporate capex boom • Market focus • We expect Japan’s core CPI inflation to have rema...

  • 16-Apr – Food prices rise on weather and geopolitics - Updated Tue April 15, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – NODX growth likely to have accelerated in March • Canada – Bank of Canada likely to keep policy rate unchanged • US – Spring recovery in housing may be gradual • Market focus • Weather risks and geopolitical con...

  • Singapore – MAS sees rising domestic inflation - Updated Mon April 14, 2014

    MAS keeps SGD NEER policy band slope, width and centre unchanged; policy unchanged since Apr-12 • MAS maintains focus on upside pressure on core inflation, reduces headline inflation forecast • SGD NEER should weaken 0.5% in the coming three mont...



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Trade idea

22-May – Selectively receive EM Asia rates

Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Prices may have continued to fall in April • Taiwan – We forecast slower IP growth in April on weak export sales • Japan – Trade balance likely turned negative again in April • Market focus • EM/DM yield spread was range-bound as foreign investors became...

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Technology: Reshaping the global economy

Digital technology is transforming the economy and society. Adoption, not invention, has the most economic impact. Technology can lift developed countries if they embrace change. New technologies offer more opportunities than challenges for emerging markets.