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  • 22-May – Selectively receive EM Asia rates - Updated Thu May 21, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Prices may have continued to fall in April • Taiwan – We forecast slower IP growth in April on weak export sales • Japan – Trade balance likely turned negative again in April • Market focus • EM/DM yield spread w...

  • Receive SGD versus pay USD 1Y, 2Y forwards - Updated Wed May 20, 2015

    We recommend receiving SGD 1Y, 2Y forward swaps versus paying them in USD • Front ends of SGD and USD rates are correlated and provide an attractive relative-value opportunity • We see downside risk to our Q2 USD-SGD forecasts, which should be sup...

  • Singapore clients more concerned about Indonesia than Thailand - Updated Tue May 19, 2015

    Our Singapore client visits reveal a divergence in outlook for the Indonesian and Thai economies • Clients are worried about Indonesia’s slowing economy, policy inconsistencies, and a weakening IDR • Most of our clients are concerned that the BoT ...

  • Sell SGD-PHP via 3M NDFs - Updated Tue May 12, 2015

    We expect the SGD-PHP cross to resume its weakening trend given strong macro divergence • We recommend selling SGD-PHP 3M NDFs; spot target: 32.00, spot stop-loss: 34.20 • We raise our short-term FX weighting on the PHP to Overweight; we remain Un...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Silver linings - Updated Thu May 7, 2015

    RGI fell in March, the first time since Oct-2012, on a weak CNY, lower deposits and less Dim Sum issuance • Since March, however, CNY has stabilised, southbound flows have risen and CNH liquidity has improved • Renminbi trade settlement remains s...

  • UK election: Initial thoughts - Updated Wed May 6, 2015

    You are cordially invited to join us for an exclusive conference call presentation on Friday 8 May 2015 with 2 sessions: (1) Asia – 16:00 SG/HK (08:00 GMT) and (2) New York – 10:00AM (14:00 GMT) with: • Sarah Hewin, Chief Economist, Europe (Host, s...

  • Asia data previews – 2-8 May 2015 - Updated Thu April 30, 2015

    Inflation likely rose slightly in China, Indonesia, and Taiwan, but fell slightly in the Philippines • We expect the RBA to cut the policy rate by 25bps, and BNM to maintain it • Trade data for China, Malaysia, and Taiwan likely improved...

  • 01-May – A reality check for EUR rates - Updated Thu April 30, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – We expect inflation to have picked up slightly in April • Singapore – PMI likely contracted for a fifth consecutive month • Euro area – The next two weeks are key for Greece • Market focus • Sudden steepening i...

  • Korea – IRS curve to steepen on MBS hedging - Updated Fri April 24, 2015

    We expect the IRS 2Y/5Y and 2Y/10Y curves to steepen on MBS hedging flows 5Y-10Y KTB yields are likely to rise on increasing duration risk Discussions on a supplementary budget are likely to start in late Q2; we think the BoK will remain dovish...

  • Take profit on short SGD-THB trade - Updated Wed April 22, 2015

    We recommend taking profit on the short SGD-THB via 6M forward outright trade • We expect USD-SGD to remain under slight pressure in the near-term • We maintain short-term Neutral FX weighting on the THB and Underweight on the SGD...



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22-May – Selectively receive EM Asia rates

Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Prices may have continued to fall in April • Taiwan – We forecast slower IP growth in April on weak export sales • Japan – Trade balance likely turned negative again in April • Market focus • EM/DM yield spread was range-bound as foreign investors became...

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