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  • 24-Apr – Moment of truth for the JPY trade - Updated Wed April 23, 2014

    • Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Trade deficit likely narrowed in February • Singapore – IP likely remained robust in March • US – Still waiting for the corporate capex boom • Market focus • We expect Japan’s core CPI inflation to have rema...

  • Linking EM reallocations to Indonesian inflows - Updated Mon April 14, 2014

    We stay Neutral on Indonesian rates risk; we examine one of the positive external influences • New data shows a strong link between Russian, Turkish outflows and Indonesian inflows in Q1-2014 • The benefits for Indonesia, which we expect to conti...

  • 08-Apr – New BoK governor may hold rates steady - Updated Mon April 7, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Exports likely grew 13.5% y/y in January-February • Japan – Machinery orders likely declined in February • US – FOMC minutes to shed more light on the timing of first rate hike • Market focus • We expect the ...

  • 03-Apr – Indonesia continues to outperform EMs - Updated Wed April 2, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Exports likely rose sharply on a y/y basis in February • Philippines – Inflation likely remained on an uptrend • Germany – February factory orders expected to have risen, but only just • Market focus • Indonesia ...

  • Philippines – BSP to gradually normalise policy - Updated Fri March 28, 2014

    • BSP raises reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 1ppt to 19%, starting its tightening cycle • We expect the RRR to be raised by another 1ppt at each of the two policy meetings in Q2-2014 • BSP is concerned about excess liquidity in the financial s...

  • 26-Mar – In the steady hands of the CBC - Updated Tue March 25, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Bad weather likely weighed on February data • Philippines – BSP is likely to keep policy unchanged in March • South Africa – MPC seen on hold at March meeting; risks are building • Market focus • Expect the CBC to k...

  • 14-Mar – Asian fixed income outperforms CEMEA’s - Updated Thu March 13, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – February exports likely benefited from a low base • Philippines – Remittance growth likely remained buoyant in January • China – Growth moderated, but official data complicates the reading • Market focus • Indon...

  • 10-Mar – USD beached on the ‘island of stability’ - Updated Sun March 9, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – BoJ is likely to stay put after its last surprise announcement • Philippines – Export growth likely started 2014 on a firm footing • United Kingdom – 2014 output rises to meet growing domestic and external demand • ...

  • 24-Feb – Brazil: The BCB’s juggling act - Updated Sun February 23, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Trade deficit likely widened on stronger import growth • Hong Kong – Export data was likely distorted by Lunar New Year • Vietnam – February data expected to be distorted by Lunar New Year • Market focus • We...

  • Philippines – What Philippine clients think . . . - Updated Thu February 20, 2014

    Optimism about the Philippine economy remains strong, while USD-PHP expectations are more divided • Most of our respondents expect inflation to rise but remain within the central bank’s target zone in 2014 • The economy saw positive developments –...

  • 10-Feb – India: Softer inflation amid growth pains - Updated Sun February 9, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – December export growth likely remained robust • Japan – December machinery orders likely slightly dropped m/m • US – Another lacklustre payroll print; but tapering is set to continue • Market focus • India Jan...

  • 05-Feb – AXJ FX PCA: Global weakness, local strength - Updated Tue February 4, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – BSP likely to keep policy rates unchanged • Thailand – Close THB 2/5Y IRS steepener for a loss of 9bps • UK – BoE policy on hold while market braces for the Inflation Report • Market focus • We update our P...

  • 04-Feb – EM-21: AUD, CAD oversold on reserve trend - Updated Mon February 3, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Inflation likely to remain within the BSP’s target this year • UK – Services PMI trends down but activity remains expansionary • US – Through ADP glasses, we expect a healthy January reading Market focus • EM-...

  • Philippines – GDP growth remained robust in Q4 - Updated Thu January 30, 2014

    GDP growth accelerated to 1.5% q/q seasonally adjusted (or 6.5% y/y) in Q4-2013 from 1.1% in Q3 • Investment and net exports contributed to Q4 growth; manufacturing and services were robust • We expect strong growth momentum in H1-2014, supported...

  • 29-Jan – Preparing for Japan’s sales-tax hike - Updated Tue January 28, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – GDP growth likely remained robust in Q4 • New Zealand – We expect RBNZ to leave rate unchanged at a low 2.50% • Argentina – We raise our USD-ARS forecasts • Market focus • December data is likely to show earl...

  • Philippines – Weak correlation between PHP and CPI - Updated Tue January 28, 2014

    We do not expect recent PHP weakness to exacerbate the current inflation uptrend • Brent crude and CRB food prices are more closely correlated with PHP; we see limited upside in 2014 • We maintain our inflation forecast of 3.9% in 2014; we expect ...

  • Philippines – Remittances get an external boost - Updated Mon January 13, 2014

    We expect further remittance growth on a recovery in global growth and post-typhoon reconstruction • Our models therefore estimate c.2.0-2.5% more support in 2014 than in 2013 • We expect remittance growth to remain positive for GDP growth, curren...

  • 09-Jan – Steady job gains, steady taper - Updated Wed January 8, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • India – November IIP likely to stay in negative territory • Philippines – Exports likely fell on a m/m basis in November • UK – Industrial production expected to maintain positive momentum • Market focus • Following robust...

  • 13-Dec – Top rates trades for 2014 - Updated Thu December 12, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – CNH drops to a discount to CNY onshore • Japan – Q4 Tankan survey to show large manufacturers are upbeat • Philippines – Remittance growth likely slowed on base effects • Market focus • Our total-returns analysis ...

  • 09-Dec – Steady labour data, but the Fed is patient - Updated Sun December 8, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Export growth likely accelerated in October • Japan – Machinery orders, CGPI likely to show the impact of Abenomics • UK – Downtick in October IP, but set for better data ahead • Market focus • US labour mark...



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08-Apr – New BoK governor may hold rates...

Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Exports likely grew 13.5% y/y in January-February • Japan – Machinery orders likely declined in February • US – FOMC minutes to shed more light on the timing of first rate hike • Market focus • We expect the BoK to maintain its 7-day repo rate at 2.50%...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.