Our sensitivity indicator of yield vs. positioning is falling; EM/DM yield spreads to widen near-term
• Within EM, low-yielding bonds to outperform high-yielding as the sensitivity of positioning to yields falls
• Investors should keep exposure to...
SC FIRST is based on novel, deep, on-the-ground insight into foreign investor activity in EM bonds
• Our dataset of foreign holdings of GBI-EMGD local debt is USD 484bn, 4x the size of EPFR data
• We quantify three different investor types and us...
Top 3 data/events
• Japan – No expected change in BoJ’s policy rate and asset purchases
• Philippines – April should show healthy growth in remittances
• United States – Headline weakness takes time to hit the core
• Market focus
• Investors s...
Top 3 data/events
• Japan – A contraction in machinery orders is likely
• UK – BoE’s Inflation Report to provide insight into the possibility of further QE
• US – Consumer spending continues to expand
• Asian bonds have underperfo...
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This report provides an economic outlook for more than 60 economies worldwide and investment implications for commodities, credit, equities, FX and interest rates markets in 2014. We expect a better 2014, with world economic growth picking up and inflation staying benign. Global growth should increase to 3.5% in 2014 from 2.7% in 2013, helped by improvements in economic activity in the US and Europe. A pick-up in growth in the West is good news for the rest of the world, and we expect emerging economies’ growth to outpace G7 growth by almost 4 percentage points.
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