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  • 04-Feb – EM-21: AUD, CAD oversold on reserve trend - Updated Mon February 3, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Inflation likely to remain within the BSP’s target this year • UK – Services PMI trends down but activity remains expansionary • US – Through ADP glasses, we expect a healthy January reading Market focus • EM-...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • 03-Oct – Reiterating a bullish Asian FX call for Q4 - Updated Wed October 2, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Short-term inflationary pressures in September • Japan – BoJ likely to upgrade its assessment of the economy • Malaysia – Gradual improvement in export performance expected • Market focus • Higher-beta EM...

  • 05-Aug – The RBA: 225 not out - Updated Sun August 4, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Higher food, energy prices to support inflation print • India – SIGMA provides a bearish signal for duration in August • US – Focus turns to ISM services, which probably stayed healthy • Market focus • RBA is...

  • 24-Jul – Positioning versus fundamentals - Updated Tue July 23, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – BSP likely to keep policy and SDA rates on hold • South Korea – Q2 GDP growth likely picked up in y/y terms • US – We expand our yield forecasts to the 5Y sector • Market focus • Positioning, seasonals and...

  • 12-Jun – Carried out on rising volatility - Updated Tue June 11, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – BoK will likely keep its policy rate on hold • Philippines – Unchanged policy rate expected; SDA rate cut likely • United States – May’s retail sales data likely remained soft • Market focus • Rising G3 rate ...

  • 10-Jun – Trouble with the (JGB) curve - Updated Sun June 9, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Export growth likely saw a modest improvement in April • Malaysia – Domestic demand expected to sustain industrial activity • UK – Signs of recovery in the industrial sector • Market focus • The BoJ is likely ...

  • Close long PHP vs. G3 - Updated Mon April 29, 2013

    Recent weakness in Philippine data and potential further SDA adjustments to weigh on PHP near-term • Rich valuations in the PHP and local asset markets to weigh on PHP in Q2 • We look to re-buy PHP in H2 when PHP appreciation should resume on stro...

  • Buy PHP vs. G3 - Updated Tue March 19, 2013

    • We are bullish on the PHP on strong growth, solid C/A balance and rating upgrade expectations • Our Standard Chartered Transaction Flows indicate clients were net long USD-PHP as of end-February • Onshore, our Philippine clients are very bullis...

  • 14-Mar – Yen ‘Kuro-sion’ will be gradual - Updated Wed March 13, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Modest pick-up likely in January retail sales • Philippines – Remittance growth likely remained steady in January • Asia – Strong foreign demand for KRW and THB bonds in February • Market focus • Kuroda is wide...

  • 11-Mar – AXJ capital inflows, but no FX rally - Updated Sun March 10, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Domestic prices are expected to remain low for longer • Philippines – High base effect likely suppressed January export growth • India – February trade deficit might provide cues for monetary policy • Market focus •...

  • 04-Mar – Divided opinions - Updated Sun March 3, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Inflation likely edged higher in February • Australia – RBA is likely to maintain its policy rate at 3.0% in March • Taiwan – Risk to domestic inflation remains on the upside • Market focus • Market particip...

  • Take profit on long PHP vs. G3 - Updated Fri March 1, 2013

    The Philippines may introduce further capital-flow measures to cap the PHP’s rise near-term • These measures are unlikely to reverse PHP trend appreciation, but they are likely to slow its speed • Fundamentally, we remain bullish on PHP medium-ter...

  • 14-Feb-13 – Mixed messages ahead of G20 meeting - Updated Wed February 13, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Remittance growth was likely steady in December 2012 • Singapore – Retail sales likely contracted in December 2012 • UK – Retail sales are expected to have improved • Market focus • JPY has come under scrutin...

  • Buy PHP vs. G3 - Updated Fri February 8, 2013

    We are bullish on the PHP on strong growth, solid C/A balance and investment-upgrade expectations • Our Standard Chartered Transaction Flows indicate clients were net long USD-PHP in early January • Onshore, our Philippine clients are very bullis...

  • 23-Jan-13 – Revised AXJ FX forecasts, weightings - Updated Tue January 22, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – We expect no changes to the policy rate • South Korea – We envisage a mild recovery in Q4 GDP growth • South Africa – SARB MPC seen on hold, CPI to be closely watched • Market focus • We lower modestly our US...

  • 03-Jan-13 – Cliff-hanger, the sequel - Updated Wed January 2, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Domestic investors likely stepped up foreign bond purchases • Philippines – CPI inflation momentum probably accelerated • Singapore – PMI likely to reflect subdued sentiment • Market focus • The US avoided the fisca...

  • 12-Dec-12 – Central bank reserve monitor - Updated Tue December 11, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Overnight borrowing rate to stay on hold • EU – Summit to discuss banking union, approve Greek tranche • United States – November retail sales boosted by autos • Market focus • Reserve accumulation of our EM...

  • Take profit on long PHP vs. USD and EUR - Updated Tue December 4, 2012

    The collapse in USD-PHP forward points raises the risks of an imminent short squeeze in USD-PHP • We believe it is prudent to take profit now on PHP exposure given negative carry, policy and technicals • Fundamentally, we are bullish on the PHP; ...

  • 26-Nov-12 – Central bank inflows support AXJ gains - Updated Sun November 25, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Leading index to suggest a moderate growth rebound in Q4 • Philippines – Narrower trade deficit likely boosted C/A, reserves • Hong Kong – Exports likely to have normalised • Market focus • AXJ currencies have outp...



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In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.