We update Standard Chartered Transaction Flows, including data up to end-March 2012
• SCTF Position Index indicates the market remains short USD vs. all AXJ currencies except IDR, THB
• Short USD positioning remains substantial versus SGD, KRW, ...
• Seasonal analysis shows that AXJ FX returns are typically poor in Q2/Q3, much better in Q1/Q4
• This is in line with the seasonality of risk appetite, as reflected in the SCRAM
• Seasonal factors are particularly negative for the PHP and THB in ...
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This report provides an economic outlook for more than 60 economies worldwide and investment implications for commodities, credit, equities, FX and interest rates markets in 2014. We expect a better 2014, with world economic growth picking up and inflation staying benign. Global growth should increase to 3.5% in 2014 from 2.7% in 2013, helped by improvements in economic activity in the US and Europe. A pick-up in growth in the West is good news for the rest of the world, and we expect emerging economies’ growth to outpace G7 growth by almost 4 percentage points.
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