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  • 06-Aug – China: Slower growth, targeted boost - Updated Mon August 5, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Industrial production likely picked up in June • UK – BoE to release forward guidance details • US – Trade deficit likely narrowed marginally in June • Market focus • China’s July data is likely to show continue...

  • 02-Aug – US vs. China – Who matters more in Asia? - Updated Thu August 1, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Trade likely rebounded in June • Taiwan – A temporary downtrend in headline inflation • US – Job gains likely maintained their recent solid trend • Market focus • We examine Asia’s external linkages to the US...

  • 16-Jul – China is still slowing - Updated Mon July 15, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – June minutes to shed more light on the board’s policy stance • Malaysia – Inflation to rise but remain at modest levels • UK – BoE minutes will throw more light on ‘forward guidance’ • Market focus • We revise down...

  • SC FIRST – Still bearish; sell IDR, PHP, THB bonds - Updated Thu July 11, 2013

    •Direction signal stays negative, in line with our overall views: EM bond yields to go higher • Spread signal turns from negative to neutral: in high yielders, sell IDR bonds, buy NGN bonds • Relative value signals are bearish Asian bonds: sell...

  • 10-Jul – Adjusting our USD-AXJ FX forecasts - Updated Tue July 9, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – We expect a BI rate hike in July • Malaysia – BNM to maintain the status quo • South Korea – BoK likely to keep rates on hold • Market focus • We are revising higher our USD-AXJ FX forecasts on Fed QE tapering, ...

  • 04-Jul – Macro resilience - Updated Wed July 3, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Ongoing weakness in external demand • Philippines – CPI inflation likely accelerated in June • Taiwan – Inflation slows due to delay in electricity-charge hikes • Market focus • Growth in Asia will likely remain...

  • Assessing vulnerability to a USD liquidity squeeze - Updated Fri June 28, 2013

    • NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION IN INDIA • We outline key parameters and local factors in assessing vulnerability to a USD liquidity squeeze • FX forward markets play a role in determining market behaviour and how USD funding stress is reflected • The mo...

  • 18-Jun – EM cash levels may buffer redemptions - Updated Mon June 17, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Trade deficit is likely to have widened again in May • Malaysia – We expect inflation to have remained at 1.7% y/y in May • UK – Different voting pattern unlikely at May’s MPC meeting • Market focus • Price fall...

  • 10-Jun – Trouble with the (JGB) curve - Updated Sun June 9, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Export growth likely saw a modest improvement in April • Malaysia – Domestic demand expected to sustain industrial activity • UK – Signs of recovery in the industrial sector • Market focus • The BoJ is likely ...

  • 06-Jun – Friday’s payrolls may pacify the Fed - Updated Wed June 5, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Export growth is likely to show a modest improvement • Taiwan – Steady demand for tech continues to benefit local exporters • Germany – Export growth is not yet sufficient to lift industrial production • Marke...

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Trade idea

09-Apr – China – More stimulus needed

Top 3 data/events • Australia – Unemployment rate was likely 6.0% in March • Malaysia – External demand likely supported IP in February • UK – BoE may stay on hold while MPC digests flurry of positive data • Market focus • Policy is shifting towards pro-growth stance on weak data, with...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.