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  • 04-Dec – We expect the BoK to cut rates in Q1-2015 - Updated Wed December 3, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Falling commodity prices likely affected export performance • Philippines – Inflation likely eased further in November • Taiwan – Inflationary risk likely eased on weak fuel prices • Market focus • Korea’s econo...

  • 01-Dec – RBI likely to acknowledge easing inflation - Updated Sun November 30, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – RBA likely to reiterate a ‘period of stability in interest rates’ • South Korea – CPI inflation likely continued to fall in November • Malaysia – We revise up USD-MYR forecasts after the OPEC meeting • Market fo...

  • SC FIRST – Lower oil prices, higher flows to EM debt - Updated Wed November 26, 2014

    Direction signal now neutral from negative as foreign flows to EM debt, especially oil importers, improve • Spread signal turns positive on flows to high-yielding oil importers (INR, ZAR, TRY, IDR) plus Brazil • October fund allocations reflect ...

  • 20-Nov – Latam FX: More USD pain - Updated Wed November 19, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – October inflation was likely driven by fuel-subsidy cuts • Vietnam – Inflation likely continued to trend lower in November • US – Falling oil prices add to low underlying inflation pressures • Market focus • This...

  • 13-Nov – Paving the way for Stock Connect - Updated Wed November 12, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – GDP growth likely rebounded after a weak Q2 • Malaysia – Manufacturing production likely supported overall IP • Euro area – Q3 GDP growth likely expanded 0.1% • Market focus • The relaxation of the daily convers...

  • 06-Nov – BoJ easing reinforces relative value in AXJ - Updated Wed November 5, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Exports may have remained lacklustre versus Q2 • Korea – Taking profit on the 3Y KTB and 3Y KRW IRS • Germany – IP and exports likely rebounded in September • Market focus • BoJ easing reinforces policy divergen...

  • 05-Nov – Aussie labour-market uncertainty persists - Updated Tue November 4, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – BoJ minutes in focus after its surprise easing • Malaysia – We expect BNM to keep rates unchanged • Taiwan – Tech exports likely rose on year-end holiday sales demand • Market focus • The Australian Bureau of Stat...

  • SC FIRST – Structural flows favour Asia - Updated Tue October 28, 2014

    Direction signal stays negative on weak demand for EM debt; EM FX weakness puts pressure on EM bonds • Structural investors continue to favour Asia bonds; hard data supports Korea and Indonesia • Flow rotation continues from Russia, Turkey and So...

  • 17-Oct – ‘Pain trades’ in G10 crosses - Updated Thu October 16, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Inflation likely remained stable in September • Singapore – Revising the stop-loss on the 5Y UST/SGS spread widener • Canada – Core inflation likely stayed high on seasonality • Market focus • We believe short-...

  • Malaysia – Meeting expectations - Updated Fri October 10, 2014

    Government delivers another budget underlining its fiscal consolidation goals • The budget is a mix of further fiscal consolidation aims, enhancing subsidy efficiency and development • We maintain our Neutral FX weighting on the MYR • Fiscal cons...

  • 03-Oct – NFPs: Another step towards a 2015 rate hike - Updated Thu October 2, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • India – The SIGMA signal is bullish for duration in October • Malaysia – 2015 Budget is likely to signal continued fiscal consolidation • Thailand – Additional fiscal measures to jump-start the economy • Market focus • Augu...

  • Searching for value in EM Asia fixed income markets - Updated Fri September 19, 2014

    We see the recent pull-back as an opportunity to selectively buy into EM; we expect Asia to outperform • Within high-yield Asia, we favour IDR over INR bond markets on improving fundamentals and asset rotation • Within low-yield Asia, we favour TH...

  • 17-Sep – Expectations for FOMC: Too far too fast? - Updated Tue September 16, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – We expect another 25bps hike • Euro area – We expect September TLTRO take-up of EUR 125-150bn • Ghana – BoG likely to pause tightening cycle at September MPC • Market focus • FOMC meeting: A moderately more hawki...

  • 16-Sep – UK faces an eventful week - Updated Mon September 15, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Inflation likely remained stable in August • Singapore – NODX growth was likely helped by favourable base effect • Thailand – BoT likely to keep policy rate on hold for the rest of the year • Market focus • The ...

  • 04-Sep – A hedge for ECB disappointment - Updated Wed September 3, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – July exports likely remained strong • Philippines – Inflationary pressures likely persisted in August • Taiwan – Local producers may pass on rising costs to consumers • Market focus • Expectations and short EUR p...

  • 14-Aug – China’s July stumble - Updated Wed August 13, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – GDP growth likely remained robust in Q2 • Taiwan – The government will likely raise its 2014 growth forecast • Hong Kong – Heeding the warning of a Q2 GDP disappointment • Market focus • IP growth moderated to 9....

  • 08-Aug – CNY strengthens amid improving growth - Updated Thu August 7, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Pension-fund reforms are likely to support USD-JPY • Singapore – We expect a slight upward revision to Q2 GDP growth • Malaysia – Industrial production likely consolidated in June • Market focus • China’s growth is ...

  • 15-Jul – What lurks beneath in China - Updated Mon July 14, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Inflation likely remained stable in June • India – The SIGMA signal turns bullish for duration in July • Chile – Time to cut • Market focus • With housing in recession and credit growth slowing, China’s recovery ...

  • 09-Jul – BoK: On hold, awaiting more data - Updated Tue July 8, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Trade surplus expected to have rebounded • BNM and BI – BNM likely to hike rates; BI likely to keep them on hold • India – A budget beyond numbers • Market focus • We expect the BoK to keep the base rate at 2.50% in...

  • Malaysia – 3M KLIBOR to continue rising - Updated Fri July 4, 2014

    KLIBOR rates are being driven by BNM rate-hike expectations and banks preparing for LCR implementation • We expect BNM to hike rate by 25bps in July and November, as BNM cites risk of financial imbalance • KLIBOR rates will likely continue rising...



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Trade idea

21-May – BoJ likely to remain on hold in May

Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – GST to boost full-year inflation • Germany – IFO index likely to maintain its upward momentum • Brazil – A bumpy road for fiscal adjustment, but in the right direction • Market focus • We expect the BoJ to remain on hold on 21-22 May • Q1-2015 GDP was...

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