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  • Linking EM reallocations to Indonesian inflows - Updated Mon April 14, 2014

    We stay Neutral on Indonesian rates risk; we examine one of the positive external influences • New data shows a strong link between Russian, Turkish outflows and Indonesian inflows in Q1-2014 • The benefits for Indonesia, which we expect to conti...

  • SC FIRST – High-yielding EM bonds to outperform - Updated Thu April 10, 2014

    • Direction and spread signals are both positive for the second consecutive month • Stay Positive on South Africa, but stay Neutral on Indonesia, due to valuations and fundamentals • Colombia should receive hefty bond inflows in the months to co...

  • 07-Apr – One-year review of the BoJ’s QQE - Updated Sun April 6, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – We expect BI to keep rates unchanged in April • Korea and Taiwan – Rebound in equity inflows spurs FX rally • UK – Strong manufacturing activity supports industrial production • Market focus • We expect the BoJ...

  • Indonesia – Stay Neutral on IDR government bonds - Updated Thu March 27, 2014

    Real yields reflect expectations of easing CPI inflation; bonds seem rich vs. domestic funding costs • Weaker investor demand, a worsening C/A and a weaker IDR are negative for bonds in Q2 • Favourable supply dynamics and election optimism are ke...

  • 12-Mar – Fine-tuning our G10 FX forecasts - Updated Tue March 11, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Growth likely moderated due to seasonal effects • Indonesia – BI expected to keep rates unchanged in March • Malaysia – External tailwinds likely supported IP growth in January • Market focus • We are adjusting sele...

  • 12-Feb – US: Yellen sings from Bernanke’s songbook - Updated Tue February 11, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Unemployment rate likely rose to a 4.5-year high of 5.9% • Indonesia – We expect BI to keep rates unchanged in February • South Korea – The policy rate is likely to be kept on hold at 2.5% • Market focus • There...

  • 31-Jan – AXJ FX to weaken on China slowdown fears - Updated Thu January 30, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – Inflation likely to have accelerated m/m in January • Thailand – Upside risks to inflation • US – January’s Chicago PMI: A taste of things to come in Q1 • Market focus • We forecast China January PMI manufacturi...

  • 08-Jan – Thailand’s prolonged political vacuum [CORRECTION] - Updated Wed January 8, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Inflation likely remained benign in December • Indonesia – BI expected to keep rates unchanged • Europe – ECB and BoE likely to keep policy on hold • Market focus • Several event risks could disrupt the election, le...

  • BI keeps the BI rate unchanged - Updated Thu December 12, 2013

    • Event • Bank Indonesia (BI) kept the BI rate unchanged at 7.50% at its policy meeting in December. It also kept the BI overnight lending facility (repo) rate at 7.50% and the BI overnight deposit facility (FASBI) rate at 5.75%; the repo rate is ...

  • 11-Dec – Once bitten, twice shy - Updated Tue December 10, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – IIP to turn negative, CPI remains sticky • Indonesia – We expect BI to hike rates at the December meeting • South Korea – BoK is likely to keep its policy rate at 2.5% • Market focus • Cumulative upside data surpris...



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Trade idea

07-Apr – One-year review of the BoJ’s QQE

Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – We expect BI to keep rates unchanged in April • Korea and Taiwan – Rebound in equity inflows spurs FX rally • UK – Strong manufacturing activity supports industrial production • Market focus • We expect the BoJ to stay put at its April 7-8 meeting,...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.