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  • 13-Apr – We expect no BI policy surprises - Updated Sun April 12, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • China - We expect credit growth to have declined again in March • UK – CPI likely became negative in March • Euro area – Industrial production likely registered modest growth • Market focus • We expect Bank Indonesia (BI) t...

  • Q2 – The new, new normal - Updated Fri March 20, 2015

    • Overview – In a challenging market environment, macroeconomic and policy divergence – the ‘new normal’ – remains the critical foundation of our updated views and forecasts, with the US economy, USD and US rates leading the way higher. This will ev...

  • 13-Mar – BI likely to cut and signal a long pause - Updated Thu March 12, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – Trade surplus likely increased in February • India – WPI likely moved lower in February • Philippines – Remittance growth likely slowed in January • Market focus • We expect BI to cut the BI rate and the FASBI r...

  • Indonesia – Revising our forecasts - Updated Wed February 18, 2015

    • We lower our end-2015 inflation forecast to 3.7% from 4.5% to reflect lower oil prices • We now expect BI to cut the BI rate to 7.25% in Q1-2015, before hiking in H2 to 7.75% • We revise our 2015 current account deficit forecast to 2.8% of nomin...

  • 16-Feb – Singapore budget to address needs ahead - Updated Sun February 15, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – BoK likely to keep the policy rate on hold • Indonesia – We expect BI to keep rates unchanged • UK – CPI likely to continue its downward trend • Market focus • We expect Singapore’s 2015 budget to tackle econo...

  • 04-Feb – More to come from the Tasman twins - Updated Tue February 3, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – A new base year for GDP • Philippines – Inflation likely eased further in January • UK – Bank of England will likely leave the Bank Rate unchanged • Market focus • RBA turns dovish from neutral, pointing to like...

  • 30-Jan – Beware Greeks bearing tail-risks - Updated Thu January 29, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – We expect inflation to have fallen in January • South Korea – January exports boosted by more working days • Thailand – Inflation was likely subdued in January on falling oil prices • Market focus • Signs of inv...

  • IDR and THB bonds benefit from index re-weighting - Updated Thu January 22, 2015

    In December, the GBI-EM-GD index weights of IDR and THB bonds increased by 0.55ppt and 0.72ppt, respectively • This implies marginal demand of c.USD 1.2bn for IDR bonds and c.USD 1.6bn for THB bonds from GBI-EM-GD benchmarked investors, ceteris par...

  • 14-Jan – Korea: All eyes on BoK policy direction - Updated Tue January 13, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – We expect the BI rate to be unchanged in January • Japan – Machinery orders likely rebounded; PPI likely slowed further • Australia – Job creation was likely muted in December • Market focus • We expect the BoK ...

  • Asian rates 2015 – Cherry-picking Asian markets - Updated Tue January 13, 2015

    • Asian local-currency bond markets to benefit from low inflation and lower-for-longer DM bond yields • We expect local central banks to stay dovish in H1 before showing some divergence in H2 • Demand/supply dynamics are neutral to positive, exc...



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Trade idea

13-Apr – We expect no BI policy surprises

Top 3 data/events • China - We expect credit growth to have declined again in March • UK – CPI likely became negative in March • Euro area – Industrial production likely registered modest growth • Market focus • We expect Bank Indonesia (BI) to keep the BI rate at 7.50% in April • We...

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