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  • Singapore clients more concerned about Indonesia than Thailand - Updated Tue May 19, 2015

    Our Singapore client visits reveal a divergence in outlook for the Indonesian and Thai economies • Clients are worried about Indonesia’s slowing economy, policy inconsistencies, and a weakening IDR • Most of our clients are concerned that the BoT ...

  • 15-May – Bank Indonesia likely to lower BI rate - Updated Thu May 14, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Machinery orders likely improved slightly in March • Thailand – Faltering exports may have dragged down Q1 growth • Ghana – BoG policy rate may remain elevated for longer than expected • Market focus • We expect BI ...

  • Indonesia – Reality check - Updated Mon May 11, 2015

    We lower our real GDP growth forecasts to 4.9% for 2015 and 5.3% for 2016 • We expect BI to cut the BI rate by 25bps in Q2-2015, before hiking by 25bps each in Q3 and Q4 • We maintain our USD-IDR forecast at 13,700 by mid-2015 and 13,500 by end-20...

  • Asia data previews – 8-15 May 2015 - Updated Fri May 8, 2015

    China growth likely softened further in April, while inflation remained subdued • We expect the central banks of the Philippines and South Korea to keep policy rates on hold • IP growth in Malaysia probably eased in March; private consumption like...

  • 04-May – Not too early or late, just right for RBA - Updated Sun May 3, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – Real GDP growth likely remained weak in Q1-2015 • Philippines – Inflation may moderate further on lower food inflation • US – Services to do most of heavy lifting in Q2 • Market focus • RBA will likely ease agai...

  • Asia data previews – 2-8 May 2015 - Updated Thu April 30, 2015

    Inflation likely rose slightly in China, Indonesia, and Taiwan, but fell slightly in the Philippines • We expect the RBA to cut the policy rate by 25bps, and BNM to maintain it • Trade data for China, Malaysia, and Taiwan likely improved...

  • 01-May – A reality check for EUR rates - Updated Thu April 30, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – We expect inflation to have picked up slightly in April • Singapore – PMI likely contracted for a fifth consecutive month • Euro area – The next two weeks are key for Greece • Market focus • Sudden steepening i...

  • US shocks – Quantifying the global impact - Updated Fri April 17, 2015

    • We model and assess the impact of US monetary policy shocks and US dollar strength on economies in Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America. • The main shock absorbers are currencies rather than real economies, except in fixed-exchange-rat...

  • 13-Apr – We expect no BI policy surprises - Updated Sun April 12, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • China - We expect credit growth to have declined again in March • UK – CPI likely became negative in March • Euro area – Industrial production likely registered modest growth • Market focus • We expect Bank Indonesia (BI) t...

  • Asia data previews – 10-17 April 2015 - Updated Fri April 10, 2015

    China’s Q1 GDP growth may have slowed to 6.9% y/y on lower manufacturing, housing investment • Singapore’s MAS is likely to re-centre the SGD NEER in April; BI will likely keep rates on hold • The unemployment rate likely declined in South Korea ...



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15-May – Bank Indonesia likely to lower...

Top 3 data/events • Japan – Machinery orders likely improved slightly in March • Thailand – Faltering exports may have dragged down Q1 growth • Ghana – BoG policy rate may remain elevated for longer than expected • Market focus • We expect BI to lower the BI rate by 25bps, but keep the...

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