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  • 07-Apr – One-year review of the BoJ’s QQE - Updated Sun April 6, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – We expect BI to keep rates unchanged in April • Korea and Taiwan – Rebound in equity inflows spurs FX rally • UK – Strong manufacturing activity supports industrial production • Market focus • We expect the BoJ...

  • 12-Mar – Fine-tuning our G10 FX forecasts - Updated Tue March 11, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Growth likely moderated due to seasonal effects • Indonesia – BI expected to keep rates unchanged in March • Malaysia – External tailwinds likely supported IP growth in January • Market focus • We are adjusting sele...

  • Indonesia – A market ahead of itself? - Updated Tue March 11, 2014

    News of Indonesia’s recovering economic fundamentals has spurred a local market rally • We cautiously maintain our bullish view of the Indonesian economy this year • We highlight three possible risks to Indonesia’s financial market; all with short...

  • Indonesia – It may not be as bad as it seems - Updated Wed February 19, 2014

    • Indonesia’s economic fundamentals are not as weak as they seem • We still project the BI rate at 8.00% by end-2014, but adjust the timing of the next rate hikes to Q2 and Q3 • A further rally in IDR bonds will be tactical and limited; we maintai...

  • 12-Feb – US: Yellen sings from Bernanke’s songbook - Updated Tue February 11, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Unemployment rate likely rose to a 4.5-year high of 5.9% • Indonesia – We expect BI to keep rates unchanged in February • South Korea – The policy rate is likely to be kept on hold at 2.5% • Market focus • There...

  • Indonesia - Better-than-expected 2013 GDP growth - Updated Thu February 6, 2014

    • Real GDP grew by 5.8% in 2013, better than the market consensus, but slower than 6.3% in 2012 • Household consumption remains the main engine of growth • Indonesia's economy is still driven by capital-intensive sectors • We maintain our GDP ...

  • Indonesia - What Indonesian clients think . . . - Updated Mon February 3, 2014

    • Our Indonesian clients are slightly more optimistic this year on business prospects • Our survey results suggest that sustaining revenue growth remains the key challenge • Indonesian clients are bearish on their local currency vs. USD in 2014,...

  • 31-Jan – AXJ FX to weaken on China slowdown fears - Updated Thu January 30, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – Inflation likely to have accelerated m/m in January • Thailand – Upside risks to inflation • US – January’s Chicago PMI: A taste of things to come in Q1 • Market focus • We forecast China January PMI manufacturi...

  • Indonesia – Recovering economic fundamentals - Updated Mon January 13, 2014

    • We expect Indonesia’s economic fundamentals to improve in 2014 • We lower our end-2014 BI rate forecast to 8.00% from 8.25% • Trade balance is set to improve, driven more by import slowdown than by exports recovery ...

  • 08-Jan – Thailand’s prolonged political vacuum [CORRECTION] - Updated Wed January 8, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Inflation likely remained benign in December • Indonesia – BI expected to keep rates unchanged • Europe – ECB and BoE likely to keep policy on hold • Market focus • Several event risks could disrupt the election, le...

  • BI keeps the BI rate unchanged - Updated Thu December 12, 2013

    • Event • Bank Indonesia (BI) kept the BI rate unchanged at 7.50% at its policy meeting in December. It also kept the BI overnight lending facility (repo) rate at 7.50% and the BI overnight deposit facility (FASBI) rate at 5.75%; the repo rate is ...

  • 11-Dec – Once bitten, twice shy - Updated Tue December 10, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – IIP to turn negative, CPI remains sticky • Indonesia – We expect BI to hike rates at the December meeting • South Korea – BoK is likely to keep its policy rate at 2.5% • Market focus • Cumulative upside data surpris...

  • Indonesia – BI unexpectedly hikes rates - Updated Tue November 12, 2013

    Event – Bank Indonesia (BI) unexpectedly hiked the BI rate by 25bps to 7.50% at its November policy meeting. It also hiked the overnight deposit facility (FASBI) rate by 25bps to 5.75% and the repo rate by 25bps to 7.50%. The FASBI rate is the lower...

  • 05-Nov – UST market: Steady as she goes - Updated Mon November 4, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – Real GDP y/y growth likely slowed in Q3 • Singapore – PMI likely edged up in October • Euro area – Muted services expansion according to flash indicator • Market focus • Last week’s Fed statement and strong manu...

  • 31-Oct – AXJ currencies to strengthen further - Updated Wed October 30, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • China – Manufacturing PMI likely saw a marginal improvement • Indonesia – Headline inflation likely remained low m/m in October • US – A neutral FOMC awaits better data before pulling the trigger • Market focus • AXJ curren...

  • Indonesia – A non-expansionary budget for 2014 - Updated Mon October 28, 2013

    Parliament passed a non-expansionary budget for 2014, with a deficit target of 1.7% of nominal GDP • We maintain our forecast of a deficit of 1.5% of nominal GDP • Net supply target is IDR 205tn, or 12% lower than in 2013; stay Overweight duration...

  • Indonesia – Towards a new optimum real GDP growth rate - Updated Mon October 21, 2013

    • BI to focus more on stability, less on growth, even in election year 2014 • BI is likely to continue to tighten monetary policy, despite slowing inflation • We estimate the new optimum real GDP growth rate at 5.5-6.0% in 2013 and 2014...

  • Asia Focus – Clearing skies - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in majo...

  • Indonesia – A new, less rosy, equilibrium - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    The Fed‟s decision to delay QE tapering, possibly until Q1-2014, has given Indonesian policy makers much needed breathing room. Indonesia‟s economic fundamentals are worse than they were 12 months ago. Without a sharp rebound in prices of commoditie...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...



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07-Apr – One-year review of the BoJ’s QQE

Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – We expect BI to keep rates unchanged in April • Korea and Taiwan – Rebound in equity inflows spurs FX rally • UK – Strong manufacturing activity supports industrial production • Market focus • We expect the BoJ to stay put at its April 7-8 meeting,...

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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.