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  • US shocks – Quantifying the global impact - Updated Fri April 17, 2015

    • We model and assess the impact of US monetary policy shocks and US dollar strength on economies in Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America. • The main shock absorbers are currencies rather than real economies, except in fixed-exchange-rat...

  • 13-Apr – We expect no BI policy surprises - Updated Sun April 12, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • China - We expect credit growth to have declined again in March • UK – CPI likely became negative in March • Euro area – Industrial production likely registered modest growth • Market focus • We expect Bank Indonesia (BI) t...

  • Asia data previews – 10-17 April 2015 - Updated Fri April 10, 2015

    China’s Q1 GDP growth may have slowed to 6.9% y/y on lower manufacturing, housing investment • Singapore’s MAS is likely to re-centre the SGD NEER in April; BI will likely keep rates on hold • The unemployment rate likely declined in South Korea ...

  • Asia data previews – 3-10 April 2015 - Updated Fri April 3, 2015

    BoJ, RBA and RBI are likely to keep policy rates unchanged but ease further in Q2 • We also expect BoK to keep policy rates on hold for now and act on future data movements • China’s inflation and credit growth could ease, allowing room for furthe...

  • 13-Mar – BI likely to cut and signal a long pause - Updated Thu March 12, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – Trade surplus likely increased in February • India – WPI likely moved lower in February • Philippines – Remittance growth likely slowed in January • Market focus • We expect BI to cut the BI rate and the FASBI r...

  • Asia data previews – 27 Feb – 6 Mar 2015 - Updated Fri February 27, 2015

    • We expect the RBA and BNM to keep policy rates on hold; RBA may be a close call • Indonesia, Thailand, South Korea and the Philippines to release inflation data, with differing expectations • We see still-weak export growth in South Korea and Ma...

  • Indonesia – Revising our forecasts - Updated Wed February 18, 2015

    • We lower our end-2015 inflation forecast to 3.7% from 4.5% to reflect lower oil prices • We now expect BI to cut the BI rate to 7.25% in Q1-2015, before hiking in H2 to 7.75% • We revise our 2015 current account deficit forecast to 2.8% of nomin...

  • Bank Indonesia cuts BI rate - Updated Tue February 17, 2015

    • Event - Bank Indonesia (BI) surprised the market today by cutting the BI rate by 25bps to 7.50% and the BI overnight deposit facility (FASBI) rate by 25bps to 5.50%. This move was against the market consensus view of no change. BI kept the BI over...

  • 16-Feb – Singapore budget to address needs ahead - Updated Sun February 15, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – BoK likely to keep the policy rate on hold • Indonesia – We expect BI to keep rates unchanged • UK – CPI likely to continue its downward trend • Market focus • We expect Singapore’s 2015 budget to tackle econo...



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13-Apr – We expect no BI policy surprises

Top 3 data/events • China - We expect credit growth to have declined again in March • UK – CPI likely became negative in March • Euro area – Industrial production likely registered modest growth • Market focus • We expect Bank Indonesia (BI) to keep the BI rate at 7.50% in April • We...

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Technology: Reshaping the global economy

Digital technology is transforming the economy and society. Adoption, not invention, has the most economic impact. Technology can lift developed countries if they embrace change. New technologies offer more opportunities than challenges for emerging markets.