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  • Asia Focus – Clearing skies - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    We see growth improving across the region, despite recent financial-market distress. Fretting over the growth outlook because of portfolio outflows is missing the point, in our view. We think more optimism is in order, as simultaneous growth in majo...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2014 - Updated Mon October 7, 2013

    To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of EM bond markets have been greatly exaggerated. Increased global allocations to local EM bond markets have been not cyclical but primarily structural in nature, reflecting these markets’ rising ec...

  • 13-Jun – Signals to watch for a turnaround in EM - Updated Wed June 12, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • India – May WPI likely to be marginally lower • Indonesia – BI measures to provide short-term market relief • United States – A still-elevated gap between confidence and hard data • Market focus • EM markets have sold off ...

  • 13-May – EM-21 reserve monitor: Bearish EUR, GBP - Updated Sun May 12, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – BI likely to keep rates unchanged at the May meeting • India – More good news on inflation • Germany – ZEW survey expected to reflect modest pickup in investor sentiment • Market focus • EM-21 central-bank rese...

  • 11-Jan-13 – Subsidy reforms, inflation and the RBI - Updated Thu January 10, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – Short-term FX weighting lowered to Underweight • Ghana – Stunning 3Y bond auction results, 5Y offers better value • Euro area – ECB sees ‘positive contagion’ as markets do the job • Market focus • December WPI...

  • Local Markets Compendium 2013 - Updated Fri October 5, 2012

    Local-currency emerging bond markets have seen ever greater levels of foreign demand as global investors flee from the ongoing European sovereign crisis and continue to allocate to fixed income securities. From less than USD 150bn in March 2009, for...

  • 13-Aug-12 – Euro area enters ‘double-dip’ recession - Updated Sun August 12, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • India – High base effect likely masked price pressure • Indonesia – Widening current account deficit prompts FASBI rate hike • United States – July retail sales may have done better than expected • Market focus • Q2 GDP da...

  • 08-Aug-12 – Asian resilience on bond inflows - Updated Tue August 7, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • India – We expect a very weak IIP print for June • Indonesia – BI rate to remain unchanged at 5.75% • South Korea – BoK will likely hold the base rate at 3.0% • Market focus • We expect Asian exports to remain subdued nea...

  • 11-Jun-12 – Local factors drive Asian central banks - Updated Sun June 10, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – BI to keep policy rate unchanged in June • Japan – CGPI index likely dropped for a second month in April • India – April IIP was likely positive, but not out of the woods • Market focus • Indonesia, NZ, Thailand...

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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.