• ETF: Flows were positive across most of the complex; geopolitical drivers provided tailwinds for gold
• CFTC: Managed-money flows trended towards their highest in two years
• ETF: Sentiment towards the broad index turns more bullish; gold sees outflows on price resistance
• CFTC: Large speculators turn more bullish towards commodities on high cash flow
• ETF: Flows into commodities were mostly positive, except for base metals
• CFTC: Aggregate net spec rose for a fourth straight week; dry weather drove agricultural net spec higher...
• Agricultural commodity markets have been pressured lower by ample supply and a stronger USD
• We lower our price forecasts for wheat to reflect current market conditions and sluggish feed demand
• Despite a weak start to the year, we expect fund...
• ETF: Overall flows were bearish due to outflows from energy and broad-index funds
• CFTC: Energy speculators turned more bearish; positions were overextended in copper, gold, and wheat...
• The market has downgraded its estimates of the US soybean crop in the 2013/14 season
• We expect greater attention to global crop use as hog production increases in China and the US
• We are bullish on longer-dated soybean futures as global inve...
• The US Corn Belt enjoyed largely favourable weather in July; this is critical for crop development
• USDA data shows a strong recovery in US crop prospects after a difficult start to the planting season
• We lower our grain price forecasts on ac...
• The USDA releases a bearish 2013 acreage report and a bullish old-crop stocks report
• We believe the risks to corn and soybean yields are to the downside which will support prices in Q4
• We maintain our bullish position versus the corn and soy...
• ETF: Gold outflows continue to slow; we see this as an early sign that a trough is forming
• CFTC: Speculative positions rise 26% w/w, mostly due to the outlook for agricultural commodities...
• The new set of locks should be completed by 2015, and is a USD 5.25bn infrastructure project
• The third set of locks will accommodate post-Panamax tankers, ships that can hold up to 13,000 TEU
• Shipping companies, ports in North and South Amer...
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This report provides an economic outlook for more than 60 economies worldwide and investment implications for commodities, credit, equities, FX and interest rates markets in 2014. We expect a better 2014, with world economic growth picking up and inflation staying benign. Global growth should increase to 3.5% in 2014 from 2.7% in 2013, helped by improvements in economic activity in the US and Europe. A pick-up in growth in the West is good news for the rest of the world, and we expect emerging economies’ growth to outpace G7 growth by almost 4 percentage points.
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