US Department of Agriculture releases its Prospective Plantings and quarterly Grain Stocks reports
• Sub-optimal weather and geopolitical risks could keep grain prices elevated, despite lower use
• Longer-dated soybean futures are undervalued on a...
• ETF: Fund flows were relatively slow; natural gas funds saw bearish flows
• CFTC: Speculative money flows peaked, indicating future downside pressure on energy and metals
• ETF: Fund flows were positive across the entire complex, particularly for gold
• CFTC: Aggregate net spec increased again, but cumulative money flow appeared overextended...
• ETF: Flows were positive across most of the complex; geopolitical drivers provided tailwinds for gold
• CFTC: Managed-money flows trended towards their highest in two years
• ETF: Sentiment towards the broad index turns more bullish; gold sees outflows on price resistance
• CFTC: Large speculators turn more bullish towards commodities on high cash flow
• ETF: Flows into commodities were mostly positive, except for base metals
• CFTC: Aggregate net spec rose for a fourth straight week; dry weather drove agricultural net spec higher...
• Agricultural commodity markets have been pressured lower by ample supply and a stronger USD
• We lower our price forecasts for wheat to reflect current market conditions and sluggish feed demand
• Despite a weak start to the year, we expect fund...
• ETF: Overall flows were bearish due to outflows from energy and broad-index funds
• CFTC: Energy speculators turned more bearish; positions were overextended in copper, gold, and wheat...
• The market has downgraded its estimates of the US soybean crop in the 2013/14 season
• We expect greater attention to global crop use as hog production increases in China and the US
• We are bullish on longer-dated soybean futures as global inve...
• The US Corn Belt enjoyed largely favourable weather in July; this is critical for crop development
• USDA data shows a strong recovery in US crop prospects after a difficult start to the planting season
• We lower our grain price forecasts on ac...
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The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility.
In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.
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