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  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Tue April 22, 2014

    • ETF: Focus is on precious metals, notably palladium funds; gold flows are bearish on positive US data • CFTC: The uptick in managed-money flows was led by energy sector; Arabica net spec is overextended...

  • US prospective plantings – More than meets the eye - Updated Fri April 4, 2014

    US Department of Agriculture releases its Prospective Plantings and quarterly Grain Stocks reports • Sub-optimal weather and geopolitical risks could keep grain prices elevated, despite lower use • Longer-dated soybean futures are undervalued on a...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon March 31, 2014

    • ETF: Fund flows were relatively slow; natural gas funds saw bearish flows • CFTC: Speculative money flows peaked, indicating future downside pressure on energy and metals ...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon March 17, 2014

    • ETF: Fund flows were positive across the entire complex, particularly for gold • CFTC: Aggregate net spec increased again, but cumulative money flow appeared overextended...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon March 3, 2014

    • ETF: Flows were positive across most of the complex; geopolitical drivers provided tailwinds for gold • CFTC: Managed-money flows trended towards their highest in two years ...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon February 24, 2014

    • ETF: Sentiment towards the broad index turns more bullish; gold sees outflows on price resistance • CFTC: Large speculators turn more bullish towards commodities on high cash flow ...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon February 10, 2014

    • ETF: Flows into commodities were mostly positive, except for base metals • CFTC: Aggregate net spec rose for a fourth straight week; dry weather drove agricultural net spec higher...

  • Agriculture – Wheat market stumbles into 2014 - Updated Tue January 21, 2014

    • Agricultural commodity markets have been pressured lower by ample supply and a stronger USD • We lower our price forecasts for wheat to reflect current market conditions and sluggish feed demand • Despite a weak start to the year, we expect fund...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Tue January 21, 2014

    • ETF: Overall flows were bearish due to outflows from energy and broad-index funds • CFTC: Energy speculators turned more bearish; positions were overextended in copper, gold, and wheat...

  • Soybeans – Bullish signals from China’s hog demand - Updated Tue September 17, 2013

    • The market has downgraded its estimates of the US soybean crop in the 2013/14 season • We expect greater attention to global crop use as hog production increases in China and the US • We are bullish on longer-dated soybean futures as global inve...

  • Receding weather risks stifle grain prices - Updated Mon August 5, 2013

    • The US Corn Belt enjoyed largely favourable weather in July; this is critical for crop development • USDA data shows a strong recovery in US crop prospects after a difficult start to the planting season • We lower our grain price forecasts on ac...

  • Agriculture – The USDA’s double-edged sword - Updated Mon July 1, 2013

    • The USDA releases a bearish 2013 acreage report and a bullish old-crop stocks report • We believe the risks to corn and soybean yields are to the downside which will support prices in Q4 • We maintain our bullish position versus the corn and soy...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon March 18, 2013

    • ETF: Gold outflows continue to slow; we see this as an early sign that a trough is forming • CFTC: Speculative positions rise 26% w/w, mostly due to the outlook for agricultural commodities...

  • Panama – The Canal unleashes its new locks - Updated Fri March 1, 2013

    • The new set of locks should be completed by 2015, and is a USD 5.25bn infrastructure project • The third set of locks will accommodate post-Panamax tankers, ships that can hold up to 13,000 TEU • Shipping companies, ports in North and South Amer...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon December 31, 2012

    • ETF: Oil ETFs saw a large outflow of USD 180mn; commodity ETF AUM edged higher to USD 185.5bn • CFTC: Speculative positions were held in commodity futures, and options fell 14.5%...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Tue December 4, 2012

    • ETF: Flows into cyclical sectors helped the complex see positive inflows; gold inflows strengthened • CFTC: Aggregate commodity net spec rose by 7.5% in the most recent Commitment of Traders report...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon November 12, 2012

    • ETF: Flows were positive across the complex, with the exception of base metals and agriculture • CFTC: Net spec fell 11%, equal to USD 8bn of outflows; the most bearish changes in cotton and platinum...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon October 29, 2012

    • ETF: Strong flows into oil, gold and commodity index funds; silver outflows continue • CFTC: Speculators turn more bullish on cotton, and more bearish on WTI and precious metals...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon October 22, 2012

    • ETF: Commodity fund flows were mostly bearish, particularly those tracking crude oil • CFTC: Commodity complex net spec down 4.8%, largely due to precious metal and agricultural sectors...

  • Agriculture – A new crop year for coffee - Updated Wed October 17, 2012

    • Coffee production in 2011/12 was flat y/y; lower Arabica production was offset by higher Robusta output • Rising Arabica coffee prices and availability of cheaper Robusta substitute shifted consumer preferences • We favour Arabica over Robusta, ...



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