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  • Crude palm oil – India’s consumption soars - Updated Thu February 13, 2014

    • Market sentiment on CPO is moderately bullish and has been lifted by surprisingly strong Indian demand • Production in East Malaysia will have a large bearing on prices this year relative to previous seasons • We expect tighter end-season inven...

  • Indonesia – A primer on the balance of payments - Updated Tue September 3, 2013

    • Although Indonesia’s economic fundamentals are still strong, its external exposures are rising • Balance-of-payments deterioration needs to be addressed with structural rather than ad-hoc measures • External debt has risen in recent years, but ...

  • Indian CPO refiners: Between a rock and a hard place - Updated Wed July 17, 2013

    Refined palm olein now accounts for half of India’s palm oil imports; a substantial shift from the norm • The spike in refined palm olein imports reflects deteriorating refining margins in India • Industry woes have been compounded by a weakening ...

  • Crude palm oil – Asia’s buying spree - Updated Mon June 10, 2013

    • Palm oil prices break above MYR 2,400/t to their highest level since March • Prices are supported by lower SE Asian inventories, a weaker MYR and robust Asian demand • We revise our CPO forecast lower but remain bullish for the remainder of the ...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon March 18, 2013

    • ETF: Gold outflows continue to slow; we see this as an early sign that a trough is forming • CFTC: Speculative positions rise 26% w/w, mostly due to the outlook for agricultural commodities...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon November 12, 2012

    • ETF: Flows were positive across the complex, with the exception of base metals and agriculture • CFTC: Net spec fell 11%, equal to USD 8bn of outflows; the most bearish changes in cotton and platinum...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon October 29, 2012

    • ETF: Strong flows into oil, gold and commodity index funds; silver outflows continue • CFTC: Speculators turn more bullish on cotton, and more bearish on WTI and precious metals...

  • Agriculture – A new crop year for coffee - Updated Wed October 17, 2012

    • Coffee production in 2011/12 was flat y/y; lower Arabica production was offset by higher Robusta output • Rising Arabica coffee prices and availability of cheaper Robusta substitute shifted consumer preferences • We favour Arabica over Robusta, ...

  • CPO – Buy the dip - Updated Fri October 5, 2012

    • The CPO market has dropped sharply in recent weeks amid mounting concerns over sluggish demand • We argue that the slide in prices is overdone and is amplified by lack of clarity on key industry events • We recommend that investors buy into th...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon September 24, 2012

    • ETF: Investors go ‘risk on’ with strong inflows to oil and precious-metal funds • CFTC: The most bullish speculative re-positioning was in energy and precious-metal contracts ...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon September 10, 2012

    • ETF: Large inflow into agricultural index funds; inflows into precious metals continue • CFTC: 2.8% increase in commodity complex net spec; speculators most bullish on cocoa...

  • Agriculture – Intense heat heats up market - Updated Tue July 10, 2012

    • US weather risks continue to fuel bullish market sentiment • Soybean market may play catch-up, particularly on the back of persistent dry weather • We revise up prices for corn by 33% and wheat by 7% to reiterate our bullish view for Q3-2012...

  • Commodity Vector Portfolio - Updated Wed July 4, 2012

    • We provide an update of our portfolio, including trades from our Roadmap publication • New trades: Enter long BMD crude palm oil (CPO) Sep 12 futures...

  • Agriculture – US weather sets a price floor - Updated Tue June 26, 2012

    US weather risks fuel a turnaround in market sentiment • Conflicting dynamics in grain markets set the scene for continuing price turbulence • We expect agricultural commodity markets to regain some bullish momentum in Q3-2012...



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