• Market sentiment on CPO is moderately bullish and has been lifted by surprisingly strong Indian demand
• Production in East Malaysia will have a large bearing on prices this year relative to previous seasons
• We expect tighter end-season inven...
• Although Indonesia’s economic fundamentals are still strong, its external exposures are rising
• Balance-of-payments deterioration needs to be addressed with structural rather than ad-hoc measures
• External debt has risen in recent years, but ...
Refined palm olein now accounts for half of India’s palm oil imports; a substantial shift from the norm
• The spike in refined palm olein imports reflects deteriorating refining margins in India
• Industry woes have been compounded by a weakening ...
• Palm oil prices break above MYR 2,400/t to their highest level since March
• Prices are supported by lower SE Asian inventories, a weaker MYR and robust Asian demand
• We revise our CPO forecast lower but remain bullish for the remainder of the ...
• ETF: Gold outflows continue to slow; we see this as an early sign that a trough is forming
• CFTC: Speculative positions rise 26% w/w, mostly due to the outlook for agricultural commodities...
• ETF: Flows were positive across the complex, with the exception of base metals and agriculture
• CFTC: Net spec fell 11%, equal to USD 8bn of outflows; the most bearish changes in cotton and platinum...
• ETF: Strong flows into oil, gold and commodity index funds; silver outflows continue
• CFTC: Speculators turn more bullish on cotton, and more bearish on WTI and precious metals...
• Coffee production in 2011/12 was flat y/y; lower Arabica production was offset by higher Robusta output
• Rising Arabica coffee prices and availability of cheaper Robusta substitute shifted consumer preferences
• We favour Arabica over Robusta, ...
• The CPO market has dropped sharply in recent weeks amid mounting concerns over sluggish demand
• We argue that the slide in prices is overdone and is amplified by lack of clarity on key industry events
• We recommend that investors buy into th...
• ETF: Investors go ‘risk on’ with strong inflows to oil and precious-metal funds
• CFTC: The most bullish speculative re-positioning was in energy and precious-metal contracts ...
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This report provides an economic outlook for more than 60 economies worldwide and investment implications for commodities, credit, equities, FX and interest rates markets in 2014. We expect a better 2014, with world economic growth picking up and inflation staying benign. Global growth should increase to 3.5% in 2014 from 2.7% in 2013, helped by improvements in economic activity in the US and Europe. A pick-up in growth in the West is good news for the rest of the world, and we expect emerging economies’ growth to outpace G7 growth by almost 4 percentage points.
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