• Market sentiment on CPO is moderately bullish and has been lifted by surprisingly strong Indian demand
• Production in East Malaysia will have a large bearing on prices this year relative to previous seasons
• We expect tighter end-season inven...
• Although Indonesia’s economic fundamentals are still strong, its external exposures are rising
• Balance-of-payments deterioration needs to be addressed with structural rather than ad-hoc measures
• External debt has risen in recent years, but ...
Refined palm olein now accounts for half of India’s palm oil imports; a substantial shift from the norm
• The spike in refined palm olein imports reflects deteriorating refining margins in India
• Industry woes have been compounded by a weakening ...
• Palm oil prices break above MYR 2,400/t to their highest level since March
• Prices are supported by lower SE Asian inventories, a weaker MYR and robust Asian demand
• We revise our CPO forecast lower but remain bullish for the remainder of the ...
• ETF: Gold outflows continue to slow; we see this as an early sign that a trough is forming
• CFTC: Speculative positions rise 26% w/w, mostly due to the outlook for agricultural commodities...
• ETF: Flows were positive across the complex, with the exception of base metals and agriculture
• CFTC: Net spec fell 11%, equal to USD 8bn of outflows; the most bearish changes in cotton and platinum...
• ETF: Strong flows into oil, gold and commodity index funds; silver outflows continue
• CFTC: Speculators turn more bullish on cotton, and more bearish on WTI and precious metals...
• Coffee production in 2011/12 was flat y/y; lower Arabica production was offset by higher Robusta output
• Rising Arabica coffee prices and availability of cheaper Robusta substitute shifted consumer preferences
• We favour Arabica over Robusta, ...
• The CPO market has dropped sharply in recent weeks amid mounting concerns over sluggish demand
• We argue that the slide in prices is overdone and is amplified by lack of clarity on key industry events
• We recommend that investors buy into th...
• ETF: Investors go ‘risk on’ with strong inflows to oil and precious-metal funds
• CFTC: The most bullish speculative re-positioning was in energy and precious-metal contracts ...
• ETF: Large inflow into agricultural index funds; inflows into precious metals continue
• CFTC: 2.8% increase in commodity complex net spec; speculators most bullish on cocoa...
• US weather risks continue to fuel bullish market sentiment
• Soybean market may play catch-up, particularly on the back of persistent dry weather
• We revise up prices for corn by 33% and wheat by 7% to reiterate our bullish view for Q3-2012...
• We provide an update of our portfolio, including trades from our Roadmap publication
• New trades: Enter long BMD crude palm oil (CPO) Sep 12 futures...
US weather risks fuel a turnaround in market sentiment
• Conflicting dynamics in grain markets set the scene for continuing price turbulence
• We expect agricultural commodity markets to regain some bullish momentum in Q3-2012...
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The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility.
In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.
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