• US weather risks continue to fuel bullish market sentiment
• Soybean market may play catch-up, particularly on the back of persistent dry weather
• We revise up prices for corn by 33% and wheat by 7% to reiterate our bullish view for Q3-2012...
• We provide an update of our portfolio, including trades from our Roadmap publication
• New trades: Enter long BMD crude palm oil (CPO) Sep 12 futures...
US weather risks fuel a turnaround in market sentiment
• Conflicting dynamics in grain markets set the scene for continuing price turbulence
• We expect agricultural commodity markets to regain some bullish momentum in Q3-2012...
• ETF: Investors become more selective as commodity indices see net outflows
• CFTC: Speculators turn more bullish on the soybean complex; energy outlook turns more bearish ...
• ETF: Net cumulative flows YTD in commodity index close to zero
• CFTC: Speculative net long positions fall 9.4%; corn net spec reduced by nearly half...
• ETF: Flows continue to seep out of oil funds; gold funds have another quiet week
• CFTC: Managed money becomes more bearish on the commodity complex, mostly sugar and corn ...
• ETF: Oil funds see largest relative outflows; minor outflows from commodity index funds
• CFTC: Net speculative length declines across the commodities complex, except for soybeans...
• We expect the rejection of the recent rally to allow for a probe of USc 626/bu rising line support
• This is expected to set up a probe of the medium-term range low at USc 570/bu further out
• Technically, clients should favour near- and medium-...
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This report provides an economic outlook for more than 60 economies worldwide and investment implications for commodities, credit, equities, FX and interest rates markets in 2014. We expect a better 2014, with world economic growth picking up and inflation staying benign. Global growth should increase to 3.5% in 2014 from 2.7% in 2013, helped by improvements in economic activity in the US and Europe. A pick-up in growth in the West is good news for the rest of the world, and we expect emerging economies’ growth to outpace G7 growth by almost 4 percentage points.
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