• ETF: Gold sees inflows as QE3 expectations mount; commodity index total YTD flows turn positive
• CFTC: Speculative money inflows were USD 4.3bn in the latest week; precious metals led the way...
• ETF: Investors inject funds into precious metals; oil fund outflows trend higher despite strong prices
• CFTC: Speculators turned notably more bullish last week, particularly in gold, WTI, corn and soybeans...
This supersedes the version dated 02 August 2012. Amends key data/events today table.
• Top 3 data/events
• Grains – Market rallies on dry US weather
• Euro area – Draghi could announce bond buying for Spain, Italy
• United States – US ADP is...
This supersedes the version dated 24 July 2012. Replaces erroneous report title on page 1.
• Pace and magnitude of grain-price increases have taken the market by surprise
• The gain in grain prices has led to market anxiety; technically, we view ...
• US weather risks continue to fuel bullish market sentiment
• Soybean market may play catch-up, particularly on the back of persistent dry weather
• We revise up prices for corn by 33% and wheat by 7% to reiterate our bullish view for Q3-2012...
• We provide an update of our portfolio, including trades from our Roadmap publication
• New trades: Enter long BMD crude palm oil (CPO) Sep 12 futures...
US weather risks fuel a turnaround in market sentiment
• Conflicting dynamics in grain markets set the scene for continuing price turbulence
• We expect agricultural commodity markets to regain some bullish momentum in Q3-2012...
• ETF: Investors become more selective as commodity indices see net outflows
• CFTC: Speculators turn more bullish on the soybean complex; energy outlook turns more bearish ...
• ETF: Net cumulative flows YTD in commodity index close to zero
• CFTC: Speculative net long positions fall 9.4%; corn net spec reduced by nearly half...
• ETF: Flows continue to seep out of oil funds; gold funds have another quiet week
• CFTC: Managed money becomes more bearish on the commodity complex, mostly sugar and corn ...
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The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility.
In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.
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