Commodity import data for China implies a divergent set of demand circumstances across sectors
• Implied oil demand has rebounded to 3.4% growth, from a y/y decline seen in the previous release
• Robust copper and zinc demand despite the economy; ...
• ETF: Precious metal outflows dominate the ETF investor space following Jackson Hole
• CFTC: Speculators’ bearishness on energy and precious metals continues to grow
• July commodity data shows areas of economic strength but also a setback in the economic recovery
• Weaker metal imports, offset by output and stock draws, result in strongest demand levels so far in 2014
• Crude oil imports are depressed by slug...
• ETF: All commodity sectors, except silver, saw positive ETF flows
• CFTC: Cumulative net spec money outflows continue – this time from energy and metals
• ETF: Positive flows into broad index funds; gold outflows as US jobless claims fall to an eight-year low
• CFTC: A fourth consecutive weekly decline in aggregate net spec driven by oil products and grains
• ETF: Fund flows were positive across the complex with the exception of agriculturals
• CFTC: Speculators have diverted positioning from energy and agriculturals into metals
• ETF: Gold inflows were strong earlier in the week in the run-up to US economic data releases
• CFTC: Bullish sentiment towards precious metals offsets bearish sentiment towards energy, agriculture
• A time to position for (uneven) growth – The global recovery remains very uneven, and in the post-2008 world, the growth trajectory remains flatter (and longer) than in a conventional economic cycle. We expect the next phase of the global cycle to...
• ETF: A strong USD drives flows out of broad-index and gold funds
• CFTC: Aggregate net spec flow is bearish as short positioning grows across agriculturals and gold/silver
• ETF: Gold outflows were strong after Memorial Day; other flows were relatively muted
• CFTC: Aggregate net spec continued to decline; gold shorts ramped up as gold prices fell 2.3%
• Risks of an El Niño event have risen, with potentially damaging consequences for some crop yields
• Our studies show global CPO stocks to be the most vulnerable to an El Niño event in the 2014/15 season
• Such an event could elevate inflation ...
• ETF: Investors exit agricultural funds as the USDA expects larger y/y global wheat ending stocks
• CFTC: Energy and agricultural net spec declines the most; copper net spec recedes to neutral
• ETF: Gold and palladium flows were positive; commodity ETF AUM are up 6.7% YTD
• CFTC: Speculative flows were flat overall as positive energy flows were largely offset by agricultural flows ...
• ETF: Focus is on precious metals, notably palladium funds; gold flows are bearish on positive US data
• CFTC: The uptick in managed-money flows was led by energy sector; Arabica net spec is overextended...
• ETF: Fund flows were relatively slow; natural gas funds saw bearish flows
• CFTC: Speculative money flows peaked, indicating future downside pressure on energy and metals
• ETF: Fund flows were positive across the entire complex, particularly for gold
• CFTC: Aggregate net spec increased again, but cumulative money flow appeared overextended...
• ETF: Flows were positive across most of the complex; geopolitical drivers provided tailwinds for gold
• CFTC: Managed-money flows trended towards their highest in two years
• ETF: Flows into commodities were mostly positive, except for base metals
• CFTC: Aggregate net spec rose for a fourth straight week; dry weather drove agricultural net spec higher...
• ETF: Gold outflows continue to slow; we see this as an early sign that a trough is forming
• CFTC: Speculative positions rise 26% w/w, mostly due to the outlook for agricultural commodities...
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