• ETF: Focus is on precious metals, notably palladium funds; gold flows are bearish on positive US data
• CFTC: The uptick in managed-money flows was led by energy sector; Arabica net spec is overextended...
US Department of Agriculture releases its Prospective Plantings and quarterly Grain Stocks reports
• Sub-optimal weather and geopolitical risks could keep grain prices elevated, despite lower use
• Longer-dated soybean futures are undervalued on a...
• ETF: Fund flows were relatively slow; natural gas funds saw bearish flows
• CFTC: Speculative money flows peaked, indicating future downside pressure on energy and metals
• ETF: Fund flows were positive across the entire complex, particularly for gold
• CFTC: Aggregate net spec increased again, but cumulative money flow appeared overextended...
• ETF: Flows were positive across most of the complex; geopolitical drivers provided tailwinds for gold
• CFTC: Managed-money flows trended towards their highest in two years
• ETF: Flows into commodities were mostly positive, except for base metals
• CFTC: Aggregate net spec rose for a fourth straight week; dry weather drove agricultural net spec higher...
• The US Corn Belt enjoyed largely favourable weather in July; this is critical for crop development
• USDA data shows a strong recovery in US crop prospects after a difficult start to the planting season
• We lower our grain price forecasts on ac...
• The USDA releases a bearish 2013 acreage report and a bullish old-crop stocks report
• We believe the risks to corn and soybean yields are to the downside which will support prices in Q4
• We maintain our bullish position versus the corn and soy...
Corn prices have declined on bearish market news
• Corn use will increase in the long term as feed demand grows
• Market needs to price in weather risk as US planting starts...
• ETF: Gold outflows continue to slow; we see this as an early sign that a trough is forming
• CFTC: Speculative positions rise 26% w/w, mostly due to the outlook for agricultural commodities...
• ETF: Oil ETFs saw a large outflow of USD 180mn; commodity ETF AUM edged higher to USD 185.5bn
• CFTC: Speculative positions were held in commodity futures, and options fell 14.5%...
• ETF: Flows into cyclical sectors helped the complex see positive inflows; gold inflows strengthened
• CFTC: Aggregate commodity net spec rose by 7.5% in the most recent Commitment of Traders report...
• ETF: Flows were positive across the complex, with the exception of base metals and agriculture
• CFTC: Net spec fell 11%, equal to USD 8bn of outflows; the most bearish changes in cotton and platinum...
• ETF: Strong flows into oil, gold and commodity index funds; silver outflows continue
• CFTC: Speculators turn more bullish on cotton, and more bearish on WTI and precious metals...
• ETF: Commodity fund flows were mostly bearish, particularly those tracking crude oil
• CFTC: Commodity complex net spec down 4.8%, largely due to precious metal and agricultural sectors...
• Coffee production in 2011/12 was flat y/y; lower Arabica production was offset by higher Robusta output
• Rising Arabica coffee prices and availability of cheaper Robusta substitute shifted consumer preferences
• We favour Arabica over Robusta, ...
• ETF: Investors go ‘risk on’ with strong inflows to oil and precious-metal funds
• CFTC: The most bullish speculative re-positioning was in energy and precious-metal contracts ...
• ETF: Gold and oil funds see strong inflows; commodity index flow continues uptrend
• CFTC: Copper and precious metals see big increase in bullish sentiment, agriculture a mild reduction...
• US stimulus gives the green light to position for a commodity rally
• Continue to hold COMEX silver and LME copper call-option positions
• Enter long positions on NYMEX WTI, ICE cotton, LME lead and NYMEX palladium
• ETF: Large inflow into agricultural index funds; inflows into precious metals continue
• CFTC: 2.8% increase in commodity complex net spec; speculators most bullish on cocoa...
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The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility.
In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.
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