• ETF: Flows were positive across most of the complex; geopolitical drivers provided tailwinds for gold
• CFTC: Managed-money flows trended towards their highest in two years
• ETF: Flows into commodities were mostly positive, except for base metals
• CFTC: Aggregate net spec rose for a fourth straight week; dry weather drove agricultural net spec higher...
• The US Corn Belt enjoyed largely favourable weather in July; this is critical for crop development
• USDA data shows a strong recovery in US crop prospects after a difficult start to the planting season
• We lower our grain price forecasts on ac...
• The USDA releases a bearish 2013 acreage report and a bullish old-crop stocks report
• We believe the risks to corn and soybean yields are to the downside which will support prices in Q4
• We maintain our bullish position versus the corn and soy...
Corn prices have declined on bearish market news
• Corn use will increase in the long term as feed demand grows
• Market needs to price in weather risk as US planting starts...
• ETF: Gold outflows continue to slow; we see this as an early sign that a trough is forming
• CFTC: Speculative positions rise 26% w/w, mostly due to the outlook for agricultural commodities...
• ETF: Oil ETFs saw a large outflow of USD 180mn; commodity ETF AUM edged higher to USD 185.5bn
• CFTC: Speculative positions were held in commodity futures, and options fell 14.5%...
• ETF: Flows into cyclical sectors helped the complex see positive inflows; gold inflows strengthened
• CFTC: Aggregate commodity net spec rose by 7.5% in the most recent Commitment of Traders report...
• ETF: Flows were positive across the complex, with the exception of base metals and agriculture
• CFTC: Net spec fell 11%, equal to USD 8bn of outflows; the most bearish changes in cotton and platinum...
• ETF: Strong flows into oil, gold and commodity index funds; silver outflows continue
• CFTC: Speculators turn more bullish on cotton, and more bearish on WTI and precious metals...
• ETF: Commodity fund flows were mostly bearish, particularly those tracking crude oil
• CFTC: Commodity complex net spec down 4.8%, largely due to precious metal and agricultural sectors...
• Coffee production in 2011/12 was flat y/y; lower Arabica production was offset by higher Robusta output
• Rising Arabica coffee prices and availability of cheaper Robusta substitute shifted consumer preferences
• We favour Arabica over Robusta, ...
• ETF: Investors go ‘risk on’ with strong inflows to oil and precious-metal funds
• CFTC: The most bullish speculative re-positioning was in energy and precious-metal contracts ...
• ETF: Gold and oil funds see strong inflows; commodity index flow continues uptrend
• CFTC: Copper and precious metals see big increase in bullish sentiment, agriculture a mild reduction...
• US stimulus gives the green light to position for a commodity rally
• Continue to hold COMEX silver and LME copper call-option positions
• Enter long positions on NYMEX WTI, ICE cotton, LME lead and NYMEX palladium
• ETF: Large inflow into agricultural index funds; inflows into precious metals continue
• CFTC: 2.8% increase in commodity complex net spec; speculators most bullish on cocoa...
• ETF: Gold sees inflows as QE3 expectations mount; commodity index total YTD flows turn positive
• CFTC: Speculative money inflows were USD 4.3bn in the latest week; precious metals led the way...
• ETF: Investors inject funds into precious metals; oil fund outflows trend higher despite strong prices
• CFTC: Speculators turned notably more bullish last week, particularly in gold, WTI, corn and soybeans...
This supersedes the version dated 02 August 2012. Amends key data/events today table.
• Top 3 data/events
• Grains – Market rallies on dry US weather
• Euro area – Draghi could announce bond buying for Spain, Italy
• United States – US ADP is...
This supersedes the version dated 24 July 2012. Replaces erroneous report title on page 1.
• Pace and magnitude of grain-price increases have taken the market by surprise
• The gain in grain prices has led to market anxiety; technically, we view ...
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This report provides an economic outlook for more than 60 economies worldwide and investment implications for commodities, credit, equities, FX and interest rates markets in 2014. We expect a better 2014, with world economic growth picking up and inflation staying benign. Global growth should increase to 3.5% in 2014 from 2.7% in 2013, helped by improvements in economic activity in the US and Europe. A pick-up in growth in the West is good news for the rest of the world, and we expect emerging economies’ growth to outpace G7 growth by almost 4 percentage points.
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