US Department of Agriculture releases its Prospective Plantings and quarterly Grain Stocks reports
• Sub-optimal weather and geopolitical risks could keep grain prices elevated, despite lower use
• Longer-dated soybean futures are undervalued on a...
• ETF: Fund flows were relatively slow; natural gas funds saw bearish flows
• CFTC: Speculative money flows peaked, indicating future downside pressure on energy and metals
• ETF: Fund flows were positive across the entire complex, particularly for gold
• CFTC: Aggregate net spec increased again, but cumulative money flow appeared overextended...
• ETF: Flows were positive across most of the complex; geopolitical drivers provided tailwinds for gold
• CFTC: Managed-money flows trended towards their highest in two years
• ETF: Flows into commodities were mostly positive, except for base metals
• CFTC: Aggregate net spec rose for a fourth straight week; dry weather drove agricultural net spec higher...
• The US Corn Belt enjoyed largely favourable weather in July; this is critical for crop development
• USDA data shows a strong recovery in US crop prospects after a difficult start to the planting season
• We lower our grain price forecasts on ac...
• The USDA releases a bearish 2013 acreage report and a bullish old-crop stocks report
• We believe the risks to corn and soybean yields are to the downside which will support prices in Q4
• We maintain our bullish position versus the corn and soy...
Corn prices have declined on bearish market news
• Corn use will increase in the long term as feed demand grows
• Market needs to price in weather risk as US planting starts...
• ETF: Gold outflows continue to slow; we see this as an early sign that a trough is forming
• CFTC: Speculative positions rise 26% w/w, mostly due to the outlook for agricultural commodities...
• ETF: Oil ETFs saw a large outflow of USD 180mn; commodity ETF AUM edged higher to USD 185.5bn
• CFTC: Speculative positions were held in commodity futures, and options fell 14.5%...
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The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility.
In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.
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