We expect China’s monetary and fiscal policy to become more expansive as growth moderates
• Latest trade data indicate a slight moderation in China’s metal demand growth rates
• Coal imports fall sharply as new regulations on quality come into fo...
Copper, oil and aluminium imports ended the year strongly; the effect of GDP slowing proved uneven
• Crude oil imports surged in December, buoyed by bargain hunting and strategic stockpiling
• China’s apparent demand for refined copper and alumin...
• Focus: A fall in drilling application approvals suggests that US oil drilling is likely to decline sharply
• Copper prices have firmed over the past week, and China’s preliminary trade data is supportive
• Our money-manager positioning indica...
China’s oil and copper demand was strong in September
• Demand for other commodities was weak; the macroeconomic outlook is for a further slowdown in Q4
• We expect copper and oil demand to remain more robust than demand for most other commodities...
• Risk premium on cocoa is elevated on growing concern over the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD)
• We agree that the risk of EVD spreading to Cote d’Ivoire and Ghana is relative not absolute
• We expect NYBOT cocoa prices to stay above USD 3,000/tonne in...
• Macro outlook
• FX outlook
• Rates outlook
• Commodity outlook
• Corporate strategy
• Central bank strategy...
Commodity import data for China implies a divergent set of demand circumstances across sectors
• Implied oil demand has rebounded to 3.4% growth, from a y/y decline seen in the previous release
• Robust copper and zinc demand despite the economy; ...
Wheat markets have been pressured lower by an abundant harvest in 2014/15
• Shortage of high-protein wheat in Europe has dented pipeline demand
• We lower our 2014-16 price forecasts and remain bearish relative to the curve...
ETF: Gold investors return, but overall momentum remains bearish; oil investors see a break in support
• CFTC: Speculative flows showing signs of bottoming, but metals still susceptible to further corrections...
ETF: Gold outflows dominate commodity ETF space as ECB and BoJ attempt to boost their economies
• CFTC: Energy and metal speculative outflows continue with few signs of letting up
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