• ETF: Focus is on precious metals, notably palladium funds; gold flows are bearish on positive US data
• CFTC: The uptick in managed-money flows was led by energy sector; Arabica net spec is overextended...
ETF: Gold flows turn bearish again; we also see positive signs for broader commodities
• CFTC: Bullish sentiment increases for energy, declines for agriculture and gold...
ETF: Gold outflows were the strongest in a month; PGM inflows as mining strikes continued
• CFTC: Speculative commodity outflows continued after investment peaked on 11 March
US Department of Agriculture releases its Prospective Plantings and quarterly Grain Stocks reports
• Sub-optimal weather and geopolitical risks could keep grain prices elevated, despite lower use
• Longer-dated soybean futures are undervalued on a...
• ETF: Fund flows were relatively slow; natural gas funds saw bearish flows
• CFTC: Speculative money flows peaked, indicating future downside pressure on energy and metals
A strong start masks large divergences
• The basis for our forecasts
• Our preferred exposures ...
• Hot weather in Brazil is undermining potential cane and sugar output in 2014/15
• An El Niño weather event in the southern hemisphere will be bullish for prices in H2-2014
• We lower our H1-2014 price forecasts but maintain our bullish stance fo...
• ETF: Fund flows were positive across the entire complex, particularly for gold
• CFTC: Aggregate net spec increased again, but cumulative money flow appeared overextended...
Overview – Four key themes continue to inform our thinking on global markets this year: geopolitical risk in EMs, ‘The Great Rotation’, absolute and relative growth, and liquidity and regulation. In our view, geopolitical risk is the ‘new normal’ an...
• ETF: Flows were positive across most of the complex; geopolitical drivers provided tailwinds for gold
• CFTC: Managed-money flows trended towards their highest in two years
• Cotton prices have rallied from their Q4-2013 lows in line with firmer global demand
• Policy reform in China, coupled with a potentially larger 2014 US crop, will undermine new-crop prices
• We lower our H2-2014 and 2015 cotton price forecast...
• ETF: Sentiment towards the broad index turns more bullish; gold sees outflows on price resistance
• CFTC: Large speculators turn more bullish towards commodities on high cash flow
ETF: Energy flows were bearish on profit taking; gold inflows gained as prices breached the 200-day MA
• CFTC: Speculative flows accelerated, with energy and agriculture leading the way...
• Market sentiment on CPO is moderately bullish and has been lifted by surprisingly strong Indian demand
• Production in East Malaysia will have a large bearing on prices this year relative to previous seasons
• We expect tighter end-season inven...
• ETF: Flows into commodities were mostly positive, except for base metals
• CFTC: Aggregate net spec rose for a fourth straight week; dry weather drove agricultural net spec higher...
ETF: Investors turn more bearish on commodities; no safe-haven flows into gold
• CFTC: Aggregate net spec rises 5.9%, mostly due to natural gas; divergence persists across the complex...
• Agricultural commodity markets have been pressured lower by ample supply and a stronger USD
• We lower our price forecasts for wheat to reflect current market conditions and sluggish feed demand
• Despite a weak start to the year, we expect fund...
• ETF: Overall flows were bearish due to outflows from energy and broad-index funds
• CFTC: Energy speculators turned more bearish; positions were overextended in copper, gold, and wheat...
ETF: Commodity (ex gold) flows are bullish, but gold outflows continue
• CFTC: Recent bullish trend in sentiment (spec flow) comes to a halt on the back of energy outflows...
• Our theme for 2014 centres on the balance between headwinds – such as a stronger US dollar (USD), higher US yields and larger supply surpluses – and tailwinds in the form of an improving global economic outlook and a continuing super-cycle. Broad ...
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The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility.
In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.
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