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  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Tue April 22, 2014

    • ETF: Focus is on precious metals, notably palladium funds; gold flows are bearish on positive US data • CFTC: The uptick in managed-money flows was led by energy sector; Arabica net spec is overextended...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon April 14, 2014

    ETF: Gold flows turn bearish again; we also see positive signs for broader commodities • CFTC: Bullish sentiment increases for energy, declines for agriculture and gold...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon April 7, 2014

    ETF: Gold outflows were the strongest in a month; PGM inflows as mining strikes continued • CFTC: Speculative commodity outflows continued after investment peaked on 11 March ...

  • US prospective plantings – More than meets the eye - Updated Fri April 4, 2014

    US Department of Agriculture releases its Prospective Plantings and quarterly Grain Stocks reports • Sub-optimal weather and geopolitical risks could keep grain prices elevated, despite lower use • Longer-dated soybean futures are undervalued on a...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon March 31, 2014

    • ETF: Fund flows were relatively slow; natural gas funds saw bearish flows • CFTC: Speculative money flows peaked, indicating future downside pressure on energy and metals ...

  • Sugar – Hot weather compels a rethink of supply - Updated Tue March 18, 2014

    • Hot weather in Brazil is undermining potential cane and sugar output in 2014/15 • An El Niño weather event in the southern hemisphere will be bullish for prices in H2-2014 • We lower our H1-2014 price forecasts but maintain our bullish stance fo...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon March 17, 2014

    • ETF: Fund flows were positive across the entire complex, particularly for gold • CFTC: Aggregate net spec increased again, but cumulative money flow appeared overextended...

  • Q2 – Rotation, relative value and risk - Updated Thu March 13, 2014

    Overview – Four key themes continue to inform our thinking on global markets this year: geopolitical risk in EMs, ‘The Great Rotation’, absolute and relative growth, and liquidity and regulation. In our view, geopolitical risk is the ‘new normal’ an...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon March 3, 2014

    • ETF: Flows were positive across most of the complex; geopolitical drivers provided tailwinds for gold • CFTC: Managed-money flows trended towards their highest in two years ...

  • Cotton - Running out of puff as China changes tactic - Updated Tue February 25, 2014

    • Cotton prices have rallied from their Q4-2013 lows in line with firmer global demand • Policy reform in China, coupled with a potentially larger 2014 US crop, will undermine new-crop prices • We lower our H2-2014 and 2015 cotton price forecast...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon February 24, 2014

    • ETF: Sentiment towards the broad index turns more bullish; gold sees outflows on price resistance • CFTC: Large speculators turn more bullish towards commodities on high cash flow ...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon February 17, 2014

    ETF: Energy flows were bearish on profit taking; gold inflows gained as prices breached the 200-day MA • CFTC: Speculative flows accelerated, with energy and agriculture leading the way...

  • Crude palm oil – India’s consumption soars - Updated Thu February 13, 2014

    • Market sentiment on CPO is moderately bullish and has been lifted by surprisingly strong Indian demand • Production in East Malaysia will have a large bearing on prices this year relative to previous seasons • We expect tighter end-season inven...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon February 10, 2014

    • ETF: Flows into commodities were mostly positive, except for base metals • CFTC: Aggregate net spec rose for a fourth straight week; dry weather drove agricultural net spec higher...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon January 27, 2014

    ETF: Investors turn more bearish on commodities; no safe-haven flows into gold • CFTC: Aggregate net spec rises 5.9%, mostly due to natural gas; divergence persists across the complex...

  • Agriculture – Wheat market stumbles into 2014 - Updated Tue January 21, 2014

    • Agricultural commodity markets have been pressured lower by ample supply and a stronger USD • We lower our price forecasts for wheat to reflect current market conditions and sluggish feed demand • Despite a weak start to the year, we expect fund...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Tue January 21, 2014

    • ETF: Overall flows were bearish due to outflows from energy and broad-index funds • CFTC: Energy speculators turned more bearish; positions were overextended in copper, gold, and wheat...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Tue January 14, 2014

    ETF: Commodity (ex gold) flows are bullish, but gold outflows continue • CFTC: Recent bullish trend in sentiment (spec flow) comes to a halt on the back of energy outflows...

  • A delicate balance - Updated Wed December 11, 2013

    • Our theme for 2014 centres on the balance between headwinds – such as a stronger US dollar (USD), higher US yields and larger supply surpluses – and tailwinds in the form of an improving global economic outlook and a continuing super-cycle. Broad ...



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