• ETF: Flows were positive across most of the complex; geopolitical drivers provided tailwinds for gold
• CFTC: Managed-money flows trended towards their highest in two years
• Cotton prices have rallied from their Q4-2013 lows in line with firmer global demand
• Policy reform in China, coupled with a potentially larger 2014 US crop, will undermine new-crop prices
• We lower our H2-2014 and 2015 cotton price forecast...
• ETF: Sentiment towards the broad index turns more bullish; gold sees outflows on price resistance
• CFTC: Large speculators turn more bullish towards commodities on high cash flow
ETF: Energy flows were bearish on profit taking; gold inflows gained as prices breached the 200-day MA
• CFTC: Speculative flows accelerated, with energy and agriculture leading the way...
• Market sentiment on CPO is moderately bullish and has been lifted by surprisingly strong Indian demand
• Production in East Malaysia will have a large bearing on prices this year relative to previous seasons
• We expect tighter end-season inven...
• ETF: Flows into commodities were mostly positive, except for base metals
• CFTC: Aggregate net spec rose for a fourth straight week; dry weather drove agricultural net spec higher...
ETF: Investors turn more bearish on commodities; no safe-haven flows into gold
• CFTC: Aggregate net spec rises 5.9%, mostly due to natural gas; divergence persists across the complex...
• Agricultural commodity markets have been pressured lower by ample supply and a stronger USD
• We lower our price forecasts for wheat to reflect current market conditions and sluggish feed demand
• Despite a weak start to the year, we expect fund...
• ETF: Overall flows were bearish due to outflows from energy and broad-index funds
• CFTC: Energy speculators turned more bearish; positions were overextended in copper, gold, and wheat...
ETF: Commodity (ex gold) flows are bullish, but gold outflows continue
• CFTC: Recent bullish trend in sentiment (spec flow) comes to a halt on the back of energy outflows...
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This report provides an economic outlook for more than 60 economies worldwide and investment implications for commodities, credit, equities, FX and interest rates markets in 2014. We expect a better 2014, with world economic growth picking up and inflation staying benign. Global growth should increase to 3.5% in 2014 from 2.7% in 2013, helped by improvements in economic activity in the US and Europe. A pick-up in growth in the West is good news for the rest of the world, and we expect emerging economies’ growth to outpace G7 growth by almost 4 percentage points.
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