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  • Silk Road: China’s commodity trade - Updated Mon March 2, 2015

    We expect China’s monetary and fiscal policy to become more expansive as growth moderates • Latest trade data indicate a slight moderation in China’s metal demand growth rates • Coal imports fall sharply as new regulations on quality come into fo...

  • Silk Road: China’s commodity trade - Updated Fri January 23, 2015

    Copper, oil and aluminium imports ended the year strongly; the effect of GDP slowing proved uneven • Crude oil imports surged in December, buoyed by bargain hunting and strategic stockpiling • China’s apparent demand for refined copper and alumin...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon December 8, 2014

    • Focus: A fall in drilling application approvals suggests that US oil drilling is likely to decline sharply • Copper prices have firmed over the past week, and China’s preliminary trade data is supportive • Our money-manager positioning indica...

  • Silk Road: China commodity trade - Updated Tue October 28, 2014

    China’s oil and copper demand was strong in September • Demand for other commodities was weak; the macroeconomic outlook is for a further slowdown in Q4 • We expect copper and oil demand to remain more robust than demand for most other commodities...

  • Threat from Ebola heaps pressure on cocoa markets - Updated Thu October 16, 2014

    • Risk premium on cocoa is elevated on growing concern over the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) • We agree that the risk of EVD spreading to Cote d’Ivoire and Ghana is relative not absolute • We expect NYBOT cocoa prices to stay above USD 3,000/tonne in...

  • Q4 – Divergence - Updated Tue September 23, 2014

    Overview • Macro outlook • FX outlook • Rates outlook • Commodity outlook • Corporate strategy • Central bank strategy...

  • Silk Road: China’s commodity trade - Updated Mon September 22, 2014

    Commodity import data for China implies a divergent set of demand circumstances across sectors • Implied oil demand has rebounded to 3.4% growth, from a y/y decline seen in the previous release • Robust copper and zinc demand despite the economy; ...

  • Wheat – A challenging season for producers - Updated Wed September 17, 2014

    Wheat markets have been pressured lower by an abundant harvest in 2014/15 • Shortage of high-protein wheat in Europe has dented pipeline demand • We lower our 2014-16 price forecasts and remain bearish relative to the curve...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon September 15, 2014

    ETF: Gold investors return, but overall momentum remains bearish; oil investors see a break in support • CFTC: Speculative flows showing signs of bottoming, but metals still susceptible to further corrections...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon September 8, 2014

    ETF: Gold outflows dominate commodity ETF space as ECB and BoJ attempt to boost their economies • CFTC: Energy and metal speculative outflows continue with few signs of letting up ...

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