ETF: Gold flows turn bearish again; we also see positive signs for broader commodities
• CFTC: Bullish sentiment increases for energy, declines for agriculture and gold...
ETF: Gold outflows were the strongest in a month; PGM inflows as mining strikes continued
• CFTC: Speculative commodity outflows continued after investment peaked on 11 March
US Department of Agriculture releases its Prospective Plantings and quarterly Grain Stocks reports
• Sub-optimal weather and geopolitical risks could keep grain prices elevated, despite lower use
• Longer-dated soybean futures are undervalued on a...
• ETF: Fund flows were relatively slow; natural gas funds saw bearish flows
• CFTC: Speculative money flows peaked, indicating future downside pressure on energy and metals
A strong start masks large divergences
• The basis for our forecasts
• Our preferred exposures ...
• Hot weather in Brazil is undermining potential cane and sugar output in 2014/15
• An El Niño weather event in the southern hemisphere will be bullish for prices in H2-2014
• We lower our H1-2014 price forecasts but maintain our bullish stance fo...
• ETF: Fund flows were positive across the entire complex, particularly for gold
• CFTC: Aggregate net spec increased again, but cumulative money flow appeared overextended...
Overview – Four key themes continue to inform our thinking on global markets this year: geopolitical risk in EMs, ‘The Great Rotation’, absolute and relative growth, and liquidity and regulation. In our view, geopolitical risk is the ‘new normal’ an...
• ETF: Flows were positive across most of the complex; geopolitical drivers provided tailwinds for gold
• CFTC: Managed-money flows trended towards their highest in two years
• Cotton prices have rallied from their Q4-2013 lows in line with firmer global demand
• Policy reform in China, coupled with a potentially larger 2014 US crop, will undermine new-crop prices
• We lower our H2-2014 and 2015 cotton price forecast...
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The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility.
In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.
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