ETF: Commodities complex saw a USD 633mn increase in investment; oil outflows were -2.1% of AUM
• CFTC: Aggregate net spec declined 3.8% due to a bearish shift in gold and natural gas...
We see upside to commodity prices in 2013, with relatively higher gains coming through in H2-2013. Macroeconomic uncertainty will continue to weigh down markets next year, as it did this year.
• However, the story has evolved – expectations have mo...
• ETF: Flows into cyclical sectors helped the complex see positive inflows; gold inflows strengthened
• CFTC: Aggregate commodity net spec rose by 7.5% in the most recent Commitment of Traders report...
We expect a sharp drop in Russian wheat output in the 2012/13 season
• The decline in Black Sea output will significantly dent the global wheat stocks-to-use ratio
• We recommend entering into a long vega trade, in view of rising implied price vol...
ETF: Bullish flows into oil and gold funds; other commodity flows were negative
• CFTC: Speculative long positions bounce back after six weeks of net spec reduction...
Agricultural commodity markets are dragged lower by weak sentiment
• We view the current decline in soybean markets as both premature and overdone
• We believe prices are generally misaligned with fundamentals and will inch higher in the coming we...
• ETF: Flows were positive across the complex, with the exception of base metals and agriculture
• CFTC: Net spec fell 11%, equal to USD 8bn of outflows; the most bearish changes in cotton and platinum...
Refinery margins to stay supportive until 2017; we see possible downside triggers in 2015
• Fears of cheap natural gas influx are overdone, but this may affect light distillates in 2018
• Emerging economies with less refinery capacity and renewa...
ETF: Net inflows to commodity funds as oil ETFs record a second strong week of inflows
• CFTC: Significant decline in commodity net spec; most bearish changes in copper, cotton and platinum...
Rice prices have remained relatively firm, despite price volatility in the broad grains complex
• End-season inventories of major exporters are expected to rise by 3%, largely driven by Thailand
• We forecast that Thai rice prices will remain stab...
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In this special edition of the Global Focus, we invite Toh Hsien Min, Global Head of Quantitative Optimisation, to re-run his model for the World Cup results. It correctly predicted in 2010 that Spain would win. This time around, it predicts that Brazil will lift the trophy in front of their home crowd.
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