• ETF: Large inflow into agricultural index funds; inflows into precious metals continue
• CFTC: 2.8% increase in commodity complex net spec; speculators most bullish on cocoa...
• Persistent adverse weather and a bullish ProFarmer report have kept agricultural prices elevated
• Price volatility has been most noticeable in the wheat and cocoa markets
• We maintain our preference for Arabica over Robusta coffee...
• Precious metals lead the way, with silver showing the best return potential
• We re-enter OTM call options on COMEX silver Dec 12 futures
• We remain long ICE raw sugar, soybean/corn spreads and options on copper and Arabica coffee
• ETF: Gold sees inflows as QE3 expectations mount; commodity index total YTD flows turn positive
• CFTC: Speculative money inflows were USD 4.3bn in the latest week; precious metals led the way...
We enter long call options on NYBOT coffee Dec 12 futures with a strike at USc 190/lb
• Take early profits on long NYMEX WTI Dec 12 call options position, and look to re-enter at lower prices
• We remain bullish on palm oil, raw sugar, silver, cop...
• ETF: Investors inject funds into precious metals; oil fund outflows trend higher despite strong prices
• CFTC: Speculators turned notably more bullish last week, particularly in gold, WTI, corn and soybeans...
• We enter long positions in palm oil, raw sugar futures, and silver Dec 12 options
• Go short OTM call options on CBOT corn, as upside appears limited from here
• Remain long Dec 12 WTI call options, long Dec 12 LME futures and long platinum/gol...
• Our recent trip to Africa reinforces our positive view on the region’s agricultural potential
• Agricultural productivity is being supported by initiatives including outgrower schemes
• Immediate challenges include poor infrastructure, restricti...
• The USDA’s August report confirms that demand rationing is in progress
• The soybean market rallies following a downward revision of US crop yields
• Elsewhere, the cocoa market strengthens in anticipation of a deficit season
• ETF: Gold and silver inflows seen last week; agricultural index inflows stall as grain prices plateau
• CFTC: Commodity net spec rises for eighth week in a row; bullish gold speculators return to the market...
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This report provides an economic outlook for more than 60 economies worldwide and investment implications for commodities, credit, equities, FX and interest rates markets in 2014. We expect a better 2014, with world economic growth picking up and inflation staying benign. Global growth should increase to 3.5% in 2014 from 2.7% in 2013, helped by improvements in economic activity in the US and Europe. A pick-up in growth in the West is good news for the rest of the world, and we expect emerging economies’ growth to outpace G7 growth by almost 4 percentage points.
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