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  • A delicate balance - Updated Wed December 11, 2013

    • Our theme for 2014 centres on the balance between headwinds – such as a stronger US dollar (USD), higher US yields and larger supply surpluses – and tailwinds in the form of an improving global economic outlook and a continuing super-cycle. Broad ...

  • Q4 – A temporary delay - Updated Mon September 30, 2013

    Overview – The Fed’s surprise ‘no taper’ decision continues to dominate the market’s focus. While this should be supportive of risk appetite near-term, we see it as a temporary delay to the normalisation process and leave our UST forecasts unchanged...

  • Signs are pointing up - Updated Thu September 19, 2013

    Improving macroeconomic data has nudged commodity prices higher, and we expect this trend to continue. • Broad indicators like industrial production, purchasing managers’ indices and fund flows support our view that commodities will see bigger upsi...

  • Q3 – Managing volatility - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    Overview – We remain long-term bulls as the ‘governing dynamics’ of the FX market remain USD-positive. In this environment, we strongly recommend that corporates focus on managing translation risk. For central banks, we recommend staying defensive, ...

  • Q1 – Flows versus fundamentals - Updated Thu January 24, 2013

    Overview – The year ahead should see stronger growth, boosting higher-beta assets and currencies, but the path will not be linear. We expect volatility in H1 before a more self-sustaining recovery in H2. We recommend Asian exporters maintain neutral...

  • Q4 – Diversification - Updated Mon October 8, 2012

    Overview • Macro outlook • FX outlook • Rates outlook • Commodities outlook • Corporate strategy • Central bank strategy...

  • 02-Aug-12 – FOMC keeps options wide open [CORRECTION] - Updated Wed August 1, 2012

    This supersedes the version dated 02 August 2012. Amends key data/events today table. • Top 3 data/events • Grains – Market rallies on dry US weather • Euro area – Draghi could announce bond buying for Spain, Italy • United States – US ADP is...

  • Q3 – Catching the turn - Updated Wed July 11, 2012

    Overview • Macro outlook • FX outlook • Rates outlook • Commodities outlook • Corporate strategy • Central bank strategy...

  • 01 June – From politics to central banks - Updated Thu May 31, 2012

    • China data expected to show inflation and growth moderating in May • South Korea and Australia likely to leave interest rates on hold • We expect rate cuts in Uganda and Kenya • European Central Bank could leave a window open for future action...

  • 04 May – European voters have their say - Updated Thu May 3, 2012

    • Elections in France, Greece, Germany and Italy add to uncertainty • Rising European unemployment is raising the political temperature • UK needs more QE soon, but the BoE will likely wait another month • China’s economy still on track to troug...



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In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.