Overview – We remain long-term bulls as the ‘governing dynamics’ of the FX market remain USD-positive. In this environment, we strongly recommend that corporates focus on managing translation risk. For central banks, we recommend staying defensive, ...
• Worries over the impact of eventual US tightening and policy actions in China may have affected markets, but Asia’s underlying macro resilience remains intact. Domestic demand indicators have been holding up. We have downgraded our 2013 growth for...
• Despite a modest planned increase in 2013 spending, budget oil-revenue assumptions are still optimistic
• Augmentation of revenue from Nigeria’s Excess Crude Account is still possible
• Calls for greater monetary easing, given near-term growth c...
• Fiscal policy is likely to be constrained in 2013 in a number of Sub-Saharan African sovereigns
• In some countries, debt levels have increased to worrying levels
• Reducing energy subsidies can alleviate the pressure on public finances
• Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth momentum continues to be robust. New resource discoveries, firm trends in credit growth underscoring domestic consumption, and increased infrastructure investment are all important drivers of the region’s growth trend.
China’s protein boom has invigorated China-Brazil trade, with soy imports to exceed USD 32bn in 2012
• We travelled to Parana in Brazil and Rosario in Argentina to see the soy farms and processing plants
• Argentina is especially vulnerable to a s...
• China data expected to show inflation and growth moderating in May
• South Korea and Australia likely to leave interest rates on hold
• We expect rate cuts in Uganda and Kenya
• European Central Bank could leave a window open for future action...
• Elections in France, Greece, Germany and Italy add to uncertainty
• Rising European unemployment is raising the political temperature
• UK needs more QE soon, but the BoE will likely wait another month
• China’s economy still on track to troug...
• G20 will discuss boosting IMF funds as euro-area stresses return
• FOMC, Bernanke press conference, Q1-2012 GDP in focus in the US
• BoJ set to expand its asset-purchase programme
• The French presidential election kicks off a series of euro-a...
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The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility.
In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.
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