• ETF: Fund flows were relatively slow; natural gas funds saw bearish flows
• CFTC: Speculative money flows peaked, indicating future downside pressure on energy and metals
• ETF: Fund flows were positive across the entire complex, particularly for gold
• CFTC: Aggregate net spec increased again, but cumulative money flow appeared overextended...
Top 3 data/events
• Metals – Caught between China and Ukraine
• Turkey – CBRT expected to leave its policy rate on hold at 10%
• Germany – Investor confidence to moderate further in March
• Market focus
• Fed will likely taper QE by USD 10bn,...
• ETF: Flows were positive across most of the complex; geopolitical drivers provided tailwinds for gold
• CFTC: Managed-money flows trended towards their highest in two years
• ETF: Sentiment towards the broad index turns more bullish; gold sees outflows on price resistance
• CFTC: Large speculators turn more bullish towards commodities on high cash flow
• ETF: Flows into commodities were mostly positive, except for base metals
• CFTC: Aggregate net spec rose for a fourth straight week; dry weather drove agricultural net spec higher...
We are revising our price forecasts across the six LME base metals and the four main precious metals
• We expect divergent performance, with some metals rising on tightening balances and others staying flat
• Our preferred positive exposures are t...
• ETF: Overall flows were bearish due to outflows from energy and broad-index funds
• CFTC: Energy speculators turned more bearish; positions were overextended in copper, gold, and wheat...
• South Africa – No easy solutions to margin squeeze, and upcoming wage negotiations will be tough
• Demand – Platinum Week conversations highlight continued weakness in the industrial sector
• Investors – Appetite for newly launched physical ETF ...
• Gold – Prices break key support and then tumble; bargain-hunting sees Asian buying surge
• Silver – Leads the way lower as investors liquidate, but ETFs are stable for now
• Platinum/palladium – Prices hit by precious metal sell-off and now repr...
• ETF: Gold outflows continue to slow; we see this as an early sign that a trough is forming
• CFTC: Speculative positions rise 26% w/w, mostly due to the outlook for agricultural commodities...
• Gold – Investors continue to cut US managed-money positions and these are at a multi-year low
• Platinum – Tensions continue to simmer and Amplats suspends production temporarily
• Palladium – Boosted by South African problems and an upturn in t...
• ETF: Oil ETFs saw a large outflow of USD 180mn; commodity ETF AUM edged higher to USD 185.5bn
• CFTC: Speculative positions were held in commodity futures, and options fell 14.5%...
• ETF: Flows were positive across the complex, with the exception of base metals and agriculture
• CFTC: Net spec fell 11%, equal to USD 8bn of outflows; the most bearish changes in cotton and platinum...
• ETF: Strong flows into oil, gold and commodity index funds; silver outflows continue
• CFTC: Speculators turn more bullish on cotton, and more bearish on WTI and precious metals...
• ETF: Commodity fund flows were mostly bearish, particularly those tracking crude oil
• CFTC: Commodity complex net spec down 4.8%, largely due to precious metal and agricultural sectors...
• ETF: Investors go ‘risk on’ with strong inflows to oil and precious-metal funds
• CFTC: The most bullish speculative re-positioning was in energy and precious-metal contracts ...
• Aluminium – Prices have rallied too far and look vulnerable
• Copper – Weak demand growth skews short-term risks to downside
• Silver – Benefiting from renewed fear about inflation and has outperformed
• Gold – We maintain our bullish view and ...
• ETF: Large inflow into agricultural index funds; inflows into precious metals continue
• CFTC: 2.8% increase in commodity complex net spec; speculators most bullish on cocoa...
• Aluminium – Producers are cutting, but not that aggressively
• Copper – Supply growth in Chile picks up, but a key power project is delayed
• Silver – Leads the metal markets higher, as central banks step up policy action
• Gold – Price breaks ...
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The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility.
In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.
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