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  • Commodity Investor Flows - Updated Mon February 23, 2015

    • Focus: Nickel was in surplus in 2014; however, we expect the market to move into deficit in 2015 • Further rig-count falls reinforce our view that US shale oil output growth will disappear in April • ICSG data shows copper concentrate market de...

  • Mining Indaba 2015 – Margin pressure - Updated Tue February 17, 2015

    • Margin pressures, capex cutbacks and asset disposal were dominant themes at Indaba 2015 • Copperbelt producers remain under intense margin pressure at current copper price levels • Zambia’s new royalty-tax regime is likely to drive more cutbacks...

  • Commodity trip notes – Caution over China - Updated Tue February 17, 2015

    Most of the commodity companies we surveyed have a neutral view on commodity prices in 2015 • Companies’ focus will be on cash-flow management, to offset the challenges they foresee • We expect Chinese investor activity in financial markets to be ...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon February 16, 2015

    • Focus: The fundamental outlook for OPEC has improved rapidly, particularly for H2 • Further signs of slowdown in China’s metal demand keep sentiment muted • Brent prices have rallied above USD 60/bbl on expectations of a rapid weakening in non-O...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon February 9, 2015

    • Focus: Volatility in commodities has increased markedly in 2015 to date compared with last year • A fall in China's copper concentrate imports in January points to cutbacks in refined output • US oil drilling has fallen sharply again; market v...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Tue February 3, 2015

    • Focus: US shale oil output is set to fall m/m in April; it will fall for the rest of 2015 if prices stay low • Base metal prices remain torn between demand pessimism and supply-side pressures • Oil prices have rallied as the scale and speed of...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon January 26, 2015

    • Focus: Saudi Arabia’s exit strategy from disciplining non-OPEC producers is a pressing oil-policy issue • Investor short positioning in copper has increased, generating significant downward price pressure • Non-OPEC output is being hit hard, a...

  • Silk Road: China’s commodity trade - Updated Fri January 23, 2015

    Copper, oil and aluminium imports ended the year strongly; the effect of GDP slowing proved uneven • Crude oil imports surged in December, buoyed by bargain hunting and strategic stockpiling • China’s apparent demand for refined copper and alumin...

  • Metals Standard – The return of volatility - Updated Tue January 20, 2015

    • Short-term demand pessimism remains the prevalent theme as China quietens ahead of the Lunar New Year • Mounting supply-rationing pressures and investor positioning extremes point to a price rebound by Q2-2015 • Copper prices are still far too l...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon January 19, 2015

    • Focus: Copper-price overshoot presents an opportunity for investors to position in Q1 for 2015 • Non-OPEC output potential is falling away sharply as oil-price undershoot continues • The SNB’s surprise removal of the CHF ceiling further supports...

  • Precious metals – LBMA 2015 Survey submission - Updated Fri January 16, 2015

    • We present our latest precious metal price forecasts and views ahead of the 2015 LBMA annual poll • We expect gold prices to gain traction over the year, supporting the complex • We revise up our 2015 palladium forecast ...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon January 12, 2015

    Focus: US oil production is likely to decline m/m before the end of Q2-2015 • Demand signals, potential output cuts and investor positioning are key for base metals • Too early to call a bottom in oil prices yet, even as damage to the supply side ...

  • Silk Road: China’s commodity trade - Updated Tue December 23, 2014

    • China’s economic slowdown continues; only oil and copper demand remains robust • Oil demand continues to grow; strategic stockpiling will likely lead to more crude oil imports in 2015 • Copper demand reached a record high in November, supporte...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon December 8, 2014

    • Focus: A fall in drilling application approvals suggests that US oil drilling is likely to decline sharply • Copper prices have firmed over the past week, and China’s preliminary trade data is supportive • Our money-manager positioning indica...

  • Storm protection - Updated Thu November 27, 2014

    Uneven economic growth, uneven prospects for commodities – Concerns over the frailty of the global economic recovery have created a bearish tone across the commodity complex in H2-2014 that only a handful of commodities have withstood. In some cases...

  • Silk Road: China’s commodity trade - Updated Fri November 21, 2014

    China’s commodity trade data implies firmer market conditions than sentiment is currently pricing in • Demand growth has resumed for freight-related diesel after months of decline • Refined copper data continues to show a surprisingly positive de...

  • Metals Standard – Performance divergence - Updated Tue November 18, 2014

    China’s destocking cycle will likely continue into 2015; given sustained credit rationing to the metals sector, subsequent restocking cycle will likely be shallow and short-lived • Absent broader and more aggressive policy action, we still favour b...

  • Silk Road: China commodity trade - Updated Tue October 28, 2014

    China’s oil and copper demand was strong in September • Demand for other commodities was weak; the macroeconomic outlook is for a further slowdown in Q4 • We expect copper and oil demand to remain more robust than demand for most other commodities...

  • LME Week 2014 – Base metals stalemate - Updated Tue October 28, 2014

    Credit rationing is driving an aggressive destocking cycle in China, which could leave the supply chain under-prepared for any demand improvement in 2015 • The copper market is most advanced in this cycle, aided by SRB buying and an improvement in ...



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