A strong surge in China’s crude oil imports has helped to tighten global balances
• Metals trade data points to modest improvement in China demand growth rates in April versus Q1
• China’s y/y oil demand growth has stayed above 8% for a second mon...
Focus: The main contribution to oil-market rebalancing has come from demand
• ILZSG data shows the refined zinc market quarterly surplus in Q1-2015 was the largest since 2011
• The decline in US shale oil output looks set to accelerate in June and...
Focus: We expect conventional non-OPEC oil supply to fall sharply in H2
• China’s copper imports strength in April points to improving demand conditions
• US oil supply looks set to fall for the rest of 2015, despite a gradual recovery in rig coun...
Focus: Low gas prices are reducing coal’s share of the US power mix; regulation is adding to that move
Base metal prices have risen strongly, although supply and demand fundamentals remain sluggish
Oil prices have firmed on the first sign of possi...
Metals prices remain caught between sluggish fundamentals and positive macro developments in Q2
• Short -covering driven price rallies should be faded until more tangible evidence of better demand levels emerges
• We now anticipate limited upside...
• Focus: No V-shaped recovery is likely for US oil output
• Turn in macro trends triggers short-covering rally across base metals but fundamentals remain soft
• Brent crude oil prices have pushed above USD 65/bbl for the first time in 2015 as sent...
China’s commodity demand has been mixed, with bulks weak and oil demand particularly robust
• Demand growth deceleration rather than y/y contraction was evident for most metals in Q1
• China’s crude processing volumes reached a new high, resultin...
Focus: The long-term story of zinc mine closures offers little fundamental support to prices in 2015
• Further signs that US shale oil output is falling; we expect the decline to accelerate in May
• Robust strength of China’s apparent copper deman...
Focus: The recession in the US oil and gas industry is set to be the second largest in the past 65 years
• China’s aluminium semis exports fell in March, constrained by lower ex-China physical premiums
• US crude oil inventories continue to rise;...
• OPEC’s share of China’s crude oil imports has seen a limited recovery so far in 2015
• The collapse in scrap imports supported China’s primary copper cathode demand in February
• Crude oil imports have maintained their strong y/y rise; oil produ...
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