• Focus: Nickel was in surplus in 2014; however, we expect the market to move into deficit in 2015
• Further rig-count falls reinforce our view that US shale oil output growth will disappear in April
• ICSG data shows copper concentrate market de...
• Margin pressures, capex cutbacks and asset disposal were dominant themes at Indaba 2015
• Copperbelt producers remain under intense margin pressure at current copper price levels
• Zambia’s new royalty-tax regime is likely to drive more cutbacks...
Most of the commodity companies we surveyed have a neutral view on commodity prices in 2015
• Companies’ focus will be on cash-flow management, to offset the challenges they foresee
• We expect Chinese investor activity in financial markets to be ...
• Focus: The fundamental outlook for OPEC has improved rapidly, particularly for H2
• Further signs of slowdown in China’s metal demand keep sentiment muted
• Brent prices have rallied above USD 60/bbl on expectations of a rapid weakening in non-O...
• Focus: Volatility in commodities has increased markedly in 2015 to date compared with last year
• A fall in China's copper concentrate imports in January points to cutbacks in refined output
• US oil drilling has fallen sharply again; market v...
• Focus: US shale oil output is set to fall m/m in April; it will fall for the rest of 2015 if prices stay low
• Base metal prices remain torn between demand pessimism and supply-side pressures
• Oil prices have rallied as the scale and speed of...
• Focus: Saudi Arabia’s exit strategy from disciplining non-OPEC producers is a pressing oil-policy issue
• Investor short positioning in copper has increased, generating significant downward price pressure
• Non-OPEC output is being hit hard, a...
Copper, oil and aluminium imports ended the year strongly; the effect of GDP slowing proved uneven
• Crude oil imports surged in December, buoyed by bargain hunting and strategic stockpiling
• China’s apparent demand for refined copper and alumin...
You are cordially invited to join us for an update call at 09:00 GMT on Thursday 22 January (and Q&A) with:
• Jeremy East, Head, Metals Trading & Commodities, NEA & GC
• Tom Coghill, Head, Precious Metal Sales
• Nicholas Snowdon, Comm...
• Short-term demand pessimism remains the prevalent theme as China quietens ahead of the Lunar New Year
• Mounting supply-rationing pressures and investor positioning extremes point to a price rebound by Q2-2015
• Copper prices are still far too l...
• Focus: Copper-price overshoot presents an opportunity for investors to position in Q1 for 2015
• Non-OPEC output potential is falling away sharply as oil-price undershoot continues
• The SNB’s surprise removal of the CHF ceiling further supports...
• We present our latest precious metal price forecasts and views ahead of the 2015 LBMA annual poll
• We expect gold prices to gain traction over the year, supporting the complex
• We revise up our 2015 palladium forecast
Focus: US oil production is likely to decline m/m before the end of Q2-2015
• Demand signals, potential output cuts and investor positioning are key for base metals
• Too early to call a bottom in oil prices yet, even as damage to the supply side ...
• China’s economic slowdown continues; only oil and copper demand remains robust
• Oil demand continues to grow; strategic stockpiling will likely lead to more crude oil imports in 2015
• Copper demand reached a record high in November, supporte...
• Focus: A fall in drilling application approvals suggests that US oil drilling is likely to decline sharply
• Copper prices have firmed over the past week, and China’s preliminary trade data is supportive
• Our money-manager positioning indica...
Uneven economic growth, uneven prospects for commodities – Concerns over the frailty of the global economic recovery have created a bearish tone across the commodity complex in H2-2014 that only a handful of commodities have withstood. In some cases...
China’s commodity trade data implies firmer market conditions than sentiment is currently pricing in
• Demand growth has resumed for freight-related diesel after months of decline
• Refined copper data continues to show a surprisingly positive de...
China’s destocking cycle will likely continue into 2015; given sustained credit rationing to the metals sector, subsequent restocking cycle will likely be shallow and short-lived
• Absent broader and more aggressive policy action, we still favour b...
China’s oil and copper demand was strong in September
• Demand for other commodities was weak; the macroeconomic outlook is for a further slowdown in Q4
• We expect copper and oil demand to remain more robust than demand for most other commodities...
Credit rationing is driving an aggressive destocking cycle in China, which could leave the supply chain under-prepared for any demand improvement in 2015
• The copper market is most advanced in this cycle, aided by SRB buying and an improvement in ...
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