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  • Signs of improvement in China’s demand - Updated Fri May 22, 2015

    A strong surge in China’s crude oil imports has helped to tighten global balances • Metals trade data points to modest improvement in China demand growth rates in April versus Q1 • China’s y/y oil demand growth has stayed above 8% for a second mon...

  • Commodity Roadmap - Strong demand the key to oil market strength - Updated Mon May 18, 2015

    Focus: The main contribution to oil-market rebalancing has come from demand • ILZSG data shows the refined zinc market quarterly surplus in Q1-2015 was the largest since 2011 • The decline in US shale oil output looks set to accelerate in June and...

  • Commodity Roadmap - How robust will non-OPEC supply be? - Updated Mon May 11, 2015

    Focus: We expect conventional non-OPEC oil supply to fall sharply in H2 • China’s copper imports strength in April points to improving demand conditions • US oil supply looks set to fall for the rest of 2015, despite a gradual recovery in rig coun...

  • Commodity Roadmap - The US fuel mix is moving further away from coal - Updated Mon May 4, 2015

    Focus: Low gas prices are reducing coal’s share of the US power mix; regulation is adding to that move Base metal prices have risen strongly, although supply and demand fundamentals remain sluggish Oil prices have firmed on the first sign of possi...

  • No man’s land - Updated Tue April 28, 2015

    Metals prices remain caught between sluggish fundamentals and positive macro developments in Q2 • Short -covering driven price rallies should be faded until more tangible evidence of better demand levels emerges • We now anticipate limited upside...

  • Commodity Roadmap – A long road to recovery for the US oil industry - Updated Mon April 27, 2015

    • Focus: No V-shaped recovery is likely for US oil output • Turn in macro trends triggers short-covering rally across base metals but fundamentals remain soft • Brent crude oil prices have pushed above USD 65/bbl for the first time in 2015 as sent...

  • Silk Road: Uneven commodity demand trends - Updated Thu April 23, 2015

    China’s commodity demand has been mixed, with bulks weak and oil demand particularly robust • Demand growth deceleration rather than y/y contraction was evident for most metals in Q1 • China’s crude processing volumes reached a new high, resultin...

  • Commodity Roadmap: Dismantling the bullish zinc thesis for 2015 - Updated Mon April 20, 2015

    Focus: The long-term story of zinc mine closures offers little fundamental support to prices in 2015 • Further signs that US shale oil output is falling; we expect the decline to accelerate in May • Robust strength of China’s apparent copper deman...

  • Commodity Roadmap – US oil industry recession deepens - Updated Mon April 13, 2015

    Focus: The recession in the US oil and gas industry is set to be the second largest in the past 65 years • China’s aluminium semis exports fell in March, constrained by lower ex-China physical premiums • US crude oil inventories continue to rise;...

  • Silk Road: China commodity trade - Updated Tue March 31, 2015

    • OPEC’s share of China’s crude oil imports has seen a limited recovery so far in 2015 • The collapse in scrap imports supported China’s primary copper cathode demand in February • Crude oil imports have maintained their strong y/y rise; oil produ...



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