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  • China – Q1 was weak; Q2 will likely be weaker - Updated Wed April 16, 2014

    • China’s official Q1 GDP grew 7.4%, slightly outperforming market expectations • Growth in credit and housing sales, the key leading indicators, is decelerating • We adjust down our CPI inflation forecast for 2014 to 2.3% from 3.3% • Stimulus me...

  • JPY – A gathering storm - Updated Wed April 16, 2014

    • We highlight increasing downside risks to USD-JPY in the near term; expect a pick-up in JPY volatility • The Bank of Japan appears comfortably sidelined for now even as domestic data hits a soft patch • We revise our short-term USD-JPY forecas...

  • Iron ore – Living with cash-tight consumers - Updated Wed April 16, 2014

    • Most iron ore buyers from China are cash-tight as banks withdraw financial support • We think more steel mills are likely to go bankrupt this year • We maintain a bearish view on iron ore prices in H2-2014 ...

  • IGB valuations are attractive; buy 5Y IGBs - Updated Wed April 16, 2014

    We believe recent pessimism on the IGB market is overdone • Improving INR outlook, near-term supply and stable policy rates are key positives for IGBs • We shift our IGB outlook to Positive from Neutral; buy 5Y IGBs at 8.95%; target: 8.65%, stop-l...

  • 16-Apr – Food prices rise on weather and geopolitics - Updated Tue April 15, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – NODX growth likely to have accelerated in March • Canada – Bank of Canada likely to keep policy rate unchanged • US – Spring recovery in housing may be gradual • Market focus • Weather risks and geopolitical con...

  • India – Be cautious not worried about inflation - Updated Tue April 15, 2014

    March WPI surprises on the upside, CPI prints in line with expectations • CPI and WPI trajectory still looks comfortable for most of 2014, barring any weather-related shocks • We cautiously maintain our FY15 CPI forecast at 8% with a downward bia...

  • 15-Apr – Draghi puts EUR strength in the crosshairs - Updated Mon April 14, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Growth momentum likely softened in Q1 • Euro area – CPI final print likely to match the preliminary data • US – Yellen to clarify view on long-run inflation, growth and FFTR • Market focus • Draghi’s IMF comments c...

  • Linking EM reallocations to Indonesian inflows - Updated Mon April 14, 2014

    We stay Neutral on Indonesian rates risk; we examine one of the positive external influences • New data shows a strong link between Russian, Turkish outflows and Indonesian inflows in Q1-2014 • The benefits for Indonesia, which we expect to conti...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon April 14, 2014

    ETF: Gold flows turn bearish again; we also see positive signs for broader commodities • CFTC: Bullish sentiment increases for energy, declines for agriculture and gold...

  • Singapore – MAS sees rising domestic inflation - Updated Mon April 14, 2014

    MAS keeps SGD NEER policy band slope, width and centre unchanged; policy unchanged since Apr-12 • MAS maintains focus on upside pressure on core inflation, reduces headline inflation forecast • SGD NEER should weaken 0.5% in the coming three mont...



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16-Apr – Food prices rise on weather and...

Top 3 data/events • Singapore – NODX growth likely to have accelerated in March • Canada – Bank of Canada likely to keep policy rate unchanged • US – Spring recovery in housing may be gradual • Market focus • Weather risks and geopolitical concerns have lifted food prices • Inventories...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.