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  • Asia Focus - Macro resilience - Updated Tue July 2, 2013

    • Worries over the impact of eventual US tightening and policy actions in China may have affected markets, but Asia’s underlying macro resilience remains intact. Domestic demand indicators have been holding up. We have downgraded our 2013 growth for...

  • Nigeria – Policy choices - Updated Tue March 26, 2013

    • Despite a modest planned increase in 2013 spending, budget oil-revenue assumptions are still optimistic • Augmentation of revenue from Nigeria’s Excess Crude Account is still possible • Calls for greater monetary easing, given near-term growth c...

  • Africa Regional overview – Fiscal policy in focus - Updated Tue March 26, 2013

    • Fiscal policy is likely to be constrained in 2013 in a number of Sub-Saharan African sovereigns • In some countries, debt levels have increased to worrying levels • Reducing energy subsidies can alleviate the pressure on public finances ...

  • Africa Focus - Sound growth, fiscal challenges - Updated Tue March 19, 2013

    • Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth momentum continues to be robust. New resource discoveries, firm trends in credit growth underscoring domestic consumption, and increased infrastructure investment are all important drivers of the region’s growth trend. ...

  • United States – Fed to wait for expected pick-up - Updated Mon July 30, 2012

    QE3 is unlikely in July and better data by September should keep the Fed on hold • A ‘fiscal cliff’ could trigger QE in 2013, but a ‘fiscal slope’ will not • Currency – An unexpected dose of QE3 would be USD-negative, but other factors are at play...

  • 01 June – From politics to central banks - Updated Thu May 31, 2012

    • China data expected to show inflation and growth moderating in May • South Korea and Australia likely to leave interest rates on hold • We expect rate cuts in Uganda and Kenya • European Central Bank could leave a window open for future action...

  • 04 May – European voters have their say - Updated Thu May 3, 2012

    • Elections in France, Greece, Germany and Italy add to uncertainty • Rising European unemployment is raising the political temperature • UK needs more QE soon, but the BoE will likely wait another month • China’s economy still on track to troug...



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In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.