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  • Metals Standard – Performance divergence - Updated Tue November 18, 2014

    China’s destocking cycle will likely continue into 2015; given sustained credit rationing to the metals sector, subsequent restocking cycle will likely be shallow and short-lived • Absent broader and more aggressive policy action, we still favour b...

  • Silk Road: China commodity trade - Updated Tue October 28, 2014

    China’s oil and copper demand was strong in September • Demand for other commodities was weak; the macroeconomic outlook is for a further slowdown in Q4 • We expect copper and oil demand to remain more robust than demand for most other commodities...

  • LME Week 2014 – Base metals stalemate - Updated Tue October 28, 2014

    Credit rationing is driving an aggressive destocking cycle in China, which could leave the supply chain under-prepared for any demand improvement in 2015 • The copper market is most advanced in this cycle, aided by SRB buying and an improvement in ...

  • Metals Standard – Price jitters - Updated Tue September 23, 2014

    • Metals prices have come under pressure in late Q3, driven by concerns over China’s economy • We see exposure to China’s property sector as a key performance differentiator going forward • Aluminium is the LME base metal best insulated from th...

  • Silk Road: China’s commodity trade - Updated Mon September 22, 2014

    Commodity import data for China implies a divergent set of demand circumstances across sectors • Implied oil demand has rebounded to 3.4% growth, from a y/y decline seen in the previous release • Robust copper and zinc demand despite the economy; ...

  • Metals Standard – Deficit dynamics - Updated Wed August 27, 2014

    We launch our new regular metals publication, which contains detailed supply-demand analysis • Deficit dynamics and higher prices are likely to be the key base metal trend over the next 2-3 years • Off-warrant inventory levels and sluggish China d...

  • Silk Road – China commodity trade - Updated Thu August 21, 2014

    • July commodity data shows areas of economic strength but also a setback in the economic recovery • Weaker metal imports, offset by output and stock draws, result in strongest demand levels so far in 2014 • Crude oil imports are depressed by slug...

  • 07-Jul – Commodities: Rise of the fundamentals - Updated Sun July 6, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Inflation pressure remains muted • Japan – Current account surplus likely shrank in May • United Kingdom – Industrial production likely to have improved further in May Market focus • Positioning for uneven and slug...

  • Silent running - Updated Thu July 3, 2014

    • A time to position for (uneven) growth – The global recovery remains very uneven, and in the post-2008 world, the growth trajectory remains flatter (and longer) than in a conventional economic cycle. We expect the next phase of the global cycle to...

  • 17-Mar – FOMC: Jettisoning the thresholds - Updated Sun March 16, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Metals – Caught between China and Ukraine • Turkey – CBRT expected to leave its policy rate on hold at 10% • Germany – Investor confidence to moderate further in March • Market focus • Fed will likely taper QE by USD 10bn,...



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