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  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon January 26, 2015

    • Focus: Saudi Arabia’s exit strategy from disciplining non-OPEC producers is a pressing oil-policy issue • Investor short positioning in copper has increased, generating significant downward price pressure • Non-OPEC output is being hit hard, a...

  • Metals Standard – The return of volatility - Updated Tue January 20, 2015

    • Short-term demand pessimism remains the prevalent theme as China quietens ahead of the Lunar New Year • Mounting supply-rationing pressures and investor positioning extremes point to a price rebound by Q2-2015 • Copper prices are still far too l...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon January 19, 2015

    • Focus: Copper-price overshoot presents an opportunity for investors to position in Q1 for 2015 • Non-OPEC output potential is falling away sharply as oil-price undershoot continues • The SNB’s surprise removal of the CHF ceiling further supports...

  • Silk Road: China’s commodity trade - Updated Tue December 23, 2014

    • China’s economic slowdown continues; only oil and copper demand remains robust • Oil demand continues to grow; strategic stockpiling will likely lead to more crude oil imports in 2015 • Copper demand reached a record high in November, supporte...

  • Storm protection - Updated Thu November 27, 2014

    Uneven economic growth, uneven prospects for commodities – Concerns over the frailty of the global economic recovery have created a bearish tone across the commodity complex in H2-2014 that only a handful of commodities have withstood. In some cases...

  • Silk Road: China’s commodity trade - Updated Fri November 21, 2014

    China’s commodity trade data implies firmer market conditions than sentiment is currently pricing in • Demand growth has resumed for freight-related diesel after months of decline • Refined copper data continues to show a surprisingly positive de...

  • Metals Standard – Performance divergence - Updated Tue November 18, 2014

    China’s destocking cycle will likely continue into 2015; given sustained credit rationing to the metals sector, subsequent restocking cycle will likely be shallow and short-lived • Absent broader and more aggressive policy action, we still favour b...

  • Silk Road: China commodity trade - Updated Tue October 28, 2014

    China’s oil and copper demand was strong in September • Demand for other commodities was weak; the macroeconomic outlook is for a further slowdown in Q4 • We expect copper and oil demand to remain more robust than demand for most other commodities...

  • LME Week 2014 – Base metals stalemate - Updated Tue October 28, 2014

    Credit rationing is driving an aggressive destocking cycle in China, which could leave the supply chain under-prepared for any demand improvement in 2015 • The copper market is most advanced in this cycle, aided by SRB buying and an improvement in ...

  • Metals Standard – Price jitters - Updated Tue September 23, 2014

    • Metals prices have come under pressure in late Q3, driven by concerns over China’s economy • We see exposure to China’s property sector as a key performance differentiator going forward • Aluminium is the LME base metal best insulated from th...

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