China’s destocking cycle will likely continue into 2015; given sustained credit rationing to the metals sector, subsequent restocking cycle will likely be shallow and short-lived
• Absent broader and more aggressive policy action, we still favour b...
China’s oil and copper demand was strong in September
• Demand for other commodities was weak; the macroeconomic outlook is for a further slowdown in Q4
• We expect copper and oil demand to remain more robust than demand for most other commodities...
Credit rationing is driving an aggressive destocking cycle in China, which could leave the supply chain under-prepared for any demand improvement in 2015
• The copper market is most advanced in this cycle, aided by SRB buying and an improvement in ...
• Metals prices have come under pressure in late Q3, driven by concerns over China’s economy
• We see exposure to China’s property sector as a key performance differentiator going forward
• Aluminium is the LME base metal best insulated from th...
Commodity import data for China implies a divergent set of demand circumstances across sectors
• Implied oil demand has rebounded to 3.4% growth, from a y/y decline seen in the previous release
• Robust copper and zinc demand despite the economy; ...
We launch our new regular metals publication, which contains detailed supply-demand analysis
• Deficit dynamics and higher prices are likely to be the key base metal trend over the next 2-3 years
• Off-warrant inventory levels and sluggish China d...
• July commodity data shows areas of economic strength but also a setback in the economic recovery
• Weaker metal imports, offset by output and stock draws, result in strongest demand levels so far in 2014
• Crude oil imports are depressed by slug...
Top 3 data/events
• China – Inflation pressure remains muted
• Japan – Current account surplus likely shrank in May
• United Kingdom – Industrial production likely to have improved further in May
• Positioning for uneven and slug...
• A time to position for (uneven) growth – The global recovery remains very uneven, and in the post-2008 world, the growth trajectory remains flatter (and longer) than in a conventional economic cycle. We expect the next phase of the global cycle to...
Top 3 data/events
• Metals – Caught between China and Ukraine
• Turkey – CBRT expected to leave its policy rate on hold at 10%
• Germany – Investor confidence to moderate further in March
• Market focus
• Fed will likely taper QE by USD 10bn,...
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