Top 3 data/events
• Metals – Caught between China and Ukraine
• Turkey – CBRT expected to leave its policy rate on hold at 10%
• Germany – Investor confidence to moderate further in March
• Market focus
• Fed will likely taper QE by USD 10bn,...
We are revising our price forecasts across the six LME base metals and the four main precious metals
• We expect divergent performance, with some metals rising on tightening balances and others staying flat
• Our preferred positive exposures are t...
• China – We revise up our forecast for copper demand growth for this year to 9%, after a strong summer
• Mine costs – We see a dramatic rise in operating costs for copper, with Chile losing competitiveness
• LME warehousing – We expect continued ...
• Aluminium – Prices have rallied too far and look vulnerable
• Copper – Weak demand growth skews short-term risks to downside
• Silver – Benefiting from renewed fear about inflation and has outperformed
• Gold – We maintain our bullish view and ...
• Aluminium – Producers are cutting, but not that aggressively
• Copper – Supply growth in Chile picks up, but a key power project is delayed
• Silver – Leads the metal markets higher, as central banks step up policy action
• Gold – Price breaks ...
• Aluminium – Producers are under pressure to cut and physical premia remain at high levels
• Copper – Chile is showing modest supply growth, but Olympic Dam mine expansion is delayed
• Nickel – The price has underperformed, but should be close to...
• Aluminium – Physical premia skyrocket as bottlenecks limit LME withdrawals
• Copper – China’s apparent consumption was strong in June, although this needs careful interpretation
• Gold – Bernanke disappointed on QE; focus is now on US GDP data a...
• Gold – US speculators are still selling; World Gold Council highlights a demand drop in Q1
• Platinum group metals – Sentiment is bearish and investors are switching into palladium
• Base metals – Tightness in copper is easing; positive news flo...
• Gold/silver – Gold investors are selling, but downside for US speculators now looks limited
• Platinum group metals – Johnson Matthey flags up an improving fundamental picture
• Base metals – Copper is trending down, but LME stocks are still fal...
• Gold/silver – Investors are cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting
• Platinum group metals – Significant cut in ETF holdings
• Base metals – Our meetings in China suggest weak sentiment and stock builds along the supply chain...
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The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility.
In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.
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