• ETF: Flows were positive across most of the complex; geopolitical drivers provided tailwinds for gold
• CFTC: Managed-money flows trended towards their highest in two years
• ETF: Sentiment towards the broad index turns more bullish; gold sees outflows on price resistance
• CFTC: Large speculators turn more bullish towards commodities on high cash flow
• ETF: Flows into commodities were mostly positive, except for base metals
• CFTC: Aggregate net spec rose for a fourth straight week; dry weather drove agricultural net spec higher...
We are revising our price forecasts across the six LME base metals and the four main precious metals
• We expect divergent performance, with some metals rising on tightening balances and others staying flat
• Our preferred positive exposures are t...
• ETF: Overall flows were bearish due to outflows from energy and broad-index funds
• CFTC: Energy speculators turned more bearish; positions were overextended in copper, gold, and wheat...
• China – We revise up our forecast for copper demand growth for this year to 9%, after a strong summer
• Mine costs – We see a dramatic rise in operating costs for copper, with Chile losing competitiveness
• LME warehousing – We expect continued ...
Copper consumers in China maintain low-inventory strategy on bearish price outlook and tight credit
• Recent macro policy changes aimed at supporting growth have not boosted consumers’ confidence
• We maintain 5% growth forecast for China’s 2013 ...
This supersedes the version dated 16 July 2013. Page 5, Figure 5 is previous forecasts table.
• Gold – Price tumbles and then rebounds as markets react to hopes and fears about US QE
• Gold – Short-term risks are to the downside, but spike in leas...
China has issued a regulation to tighten supervision on commodities used in financing
• The regulation is likely to reduce leverage and encourage the unwinding of financing deals
• 3M LME copper faces downside risks in the near term, but the impa...
Demand – Problems in Europe are offsetting a seasonal upturn in China
• Supply – Chilean strike hits copper shipments and miners are planning further action
• Market – LME stock rise needs careful interpretation; premia rally despite stock overhan...
• Despite tightening measures, pressure on the currency has persisted
• Planned Bank of Zambia Act to allow the central bank to monitor and better regulate current account transactions
• Exporters may be required to remit earnings back to Zambia
• ETF: Gold outflows continue to slow; we see this as an early sign that a trough is forming
• CFTC: Speculative positions rise 26% w/w, mostly due to the outlook for agricultural commodities...
• Our discussions with copper consumers in China show that demand is improving
• Manufacturers are restocking copper products in preparation for the peak consumption season in Q2
• Refined copper stocks remain at a record-high level, providing hea...
• Gold – Investors continue to cut US managed-money positions and these are at a multi-year low
• Platinum – Tensions continue to simmer and Amplats suspends production temporarily
• Palladium – Boosted by South African problems and an upturn in t...
We were impressed by the scale and operations of Konkola and Muliashi mines in Zambia’s copper belt
• Zambia needs to add 300MW grid facility to grow production from the belt to 1.5mt from 1mt now
• We believe Zambia has an exciting future in copp...
• Bull case: Upside risks from improving demand backdrop and potential upside for investor positioning
• Bear case: Downside risks from supply growth, which is gaining momentum, and ample project pipeline
• Technical view: We expect sideways tradi...
• ETF: Oil ETFs saw a large outflow of USD 180mn; commodity ETF AUM edged higher to USD 185.5bn
• CFTC: Speculative positions were held in commodity futures, and options fell 14.5%...
• ETF: Flows into cyclical sectors helped the complex see positive inflows; gold inflows strengthened
• CFTC: Aggregate commodity net spec rose by 7.5% in the most recent Commitment of Traders report...
Top 3 data/events
• South Korea – Authorities signal their response to KRW gains
• Singapore – Industrial production may rebound
• Thailand – Base effects to boost export growth
• Market focus
• We recommend selling into rallies in copper, as ...
• ETF: Flows were positive across the complex, with the exception of base metals and agriculture
• CFTC: Net spec fell 11%, equal to USD 8bn of outflows; the most bearish changes in cotton and platinum...
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This report provides an economic outlook for more than 60 economies worldwide and investment implications for commodities, credit, equities, FX and interest rates markets in 2014. We expect a better 2014, with world economic growth picking up and inflation staying benign. Global growth should increase to 3.5% in 2014 from 2.7% in 2013, helped by improvements in economic activity in the US and Europe. A pick-up in growth in the West is good news for the rest of the world, and we expect emerging economies’ growth to outpace G7 growth by almost 4 percentage points.
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