Focus: The long-term story of zinc mine closures offers little fundamental support to prices in 2015
• Further signs that US shale oil output is falling; we expect the decline to accelerate in May
• Robust strength of China’s apparent copper deman...
Focus: The recession in the US oil and gas industry is set to be the second largest in the past 65 years
• China’s aluminium semis exports fell in March, constrained by lower ex-China physical premiums
• US crude oil inventories continue to rise;...
• OPEC’s share of China’s crude oil imports has seen a limited recovery so far in 2015
• The collapse in scrap imports supported China’s primary copper cathode demand in February
• Crude oil imports have maintained their strong y/y rise; oil produ...
• Focus: Power demand in Saudi Arabia is likely to reduce oil exports over the next two quarters
• Rebound in China’s SME confidence points to improving metal supply-chain activity in March
• Oil prices spiked higher briefly following Saudi-led ai...
Focus: A rise in uncompleted wells implies that US oil output is falling faster than the consensus view
• China’s nickel deficit is expected to grow in H1
• Global oil surplus is heavily concentrated in the US and is entirely in crude oil rather t...
• Overview – In a challenging market environment, macroeconomic and policy divergence – the ‘new normal’ – remains the critical foundation of our updated views and forecasts, with the US economy, USD and US rates leading the way higher. This will ev...
Focus: Our 2016 supply and demand forecasts are now available in Standard Chartered Scenarios
• Latest China metals production data points to a mixed picture for demand conditions in early 2015
• Oil prices have fallen sharply, primarily due to a ...
Sluggish China demand has outweighed mounting supply constraints in driving price action so far in 2015
• The turn lower in aluminium physical premia should generate medium-term support for LME prices
• The copper concentrate market deficit has st...
Focus: Softness in the zinc physical market points to continued near-term relative underperformance
• China’s preliminary trade data shows falls in copper imports and aluminium product exports
• Key monthly oil reports are due in the next week; we...
• Focus: Drilling in the Bakken shale has fallen by 42% in three months; output is likely to fall in April
• China’s metal demand growth moderated but did not collapse in January
• Oil prices have continued their rebound, but are still low enough ...
• Focus: Nickel was in surplus in 2014; however, we expect the market to move into deficit in 2015
• Further rig-count falls reinforce our view that US shale oil output growth will disappear in April
• ICSG data shows copper concentrate market de...
• Margin pressures, capex cutbacks and asset disposal were dominant themes at Indaba 2015
• Copperbelt producers remain under intense margin pressure at current copper price levels
• Zambia’s new royalty-tax regime is likely to drive more cutbacks...
• Focus: The fundamental outlook for OPEC has improved rapidly, particularly for H2
• Further signs of slowdown in China’s metal demand keep sentiment muted
• Brent prices have rallied above USD 60/bbl on expectations of a rapid weakening in non-O...
• Focus: Volatility in commodities has increased markedly in 2015 to date compared with last year
• A fall in China's copper concentrate imports in January points to cutbacks in refined output
• US oil drilling has fallen sharply again; market v...
• Focus: US shale oil output is set to fall m/m in April; it will fall for the rest of 2015 if prices stay low
• Base metal prices remain torn between demand pessimism and supply-side pressures
• Oil prices have rallied as the scale and speed of...
• Focus: Saudi Arabia’s exit strategy from disciplining non-OPEC producers is a pressing oil-policy issue
• Investor short positioning in copper has increased, generating significant downward price pressure
• Non-OPEC output is being hit hard, a...
• Short-term demand pessimism remains the prevalent theme as China quietens ahead of the Lunar New Year
• Mounting supply-rationing pressures and investor positioning extremes point to a price rebound by Q2-2015
• Copper prices are still far too l...
• Focus: Copper-price overshoot presents an opportunity for investors to position in Q1 for 2015
• Non-OPEC output potential is falling away sharply as oil-price undershoot continues
• The SNB’s surprise removal of the CHF ceiling further supports...
Top 3 data/events
• Singapore – Petrochemicals exports likely weighed on NODX in December
• Chile – The BCCh will likely stay on hold
• Commodities – Demand uncertainties weigh heavily on copper
• Market focus
• Asian local-currency bond marke...
• Standard Chartered Global Research conference call
• You are cordially invited to join us for an update call at 09:00 GMT on Thursday 15 January (and Q&A) with:
• Chris Leeds, Director, Energy Sales, London
• Nicholas Snowdon, Director, Met...
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