• ETF: Fund flows were positive across the entire complex, particularly for gold
• CFTC: Aggregate net spec increased again, but cumulative money flow appeared overextended...
• 3-month LME copper breaks lower on a lack of confidence about China amid talk about financing deals
• Market has overreacted to the possible outcome of unwinding, in our view; we do not see it happening
• We maintain our full-year price foreca...
Top 3 data/events
• Metals – Caught between China and Ukraine
• Turkey – CBRT expected to leave its policy rate on hold at 10%
• Germany – Investor confidence to moderate further in March
• Market focus
• Fed will likely taper QE by USD 10bn,...
• ETF: Flows were positive across most of the complex; geopolitical drivers provided tailwinds for gold
• CFTC: Managed-money flows trended towards their highest in two years
• ETF: Sentiment towards the broad index turns more bullish; gold sees outflows on price resistance
• CFTC: Large speculators turn more bullish towards commodities on high cash flow
• ETF: Flows into commodities were mostly positive, except for base metals
• CFTC: Aggregate net spec rose for a fourth straight week; dry weather drove agricultural net spec higher...
We are revising our price forecasts across the six LME base metals and the four main precious metals
• We expect divergent performance, with some metals rising on tightening balances and others staying flat
• Our preferred positive exposures are t...
• ETF: Overall flows were bearish due to outflows from energy and broad-index funds
• CFTC: Energy speculators turned more bearish; positions were overextended in copper, gold, and wheat...
• China – We revise up our forecast for copper demand growth for this year to 9%, after a strong summer
• Mine costs – We see a dramatic rise in operating costs for copper, with Chile losing competitiveness
• LME warehousing – We expect continued ...
Copper consumers in China maintain low-inventory strategy on bearish price outlook and tight credit
• Recent macro policy changes aimed at supporting growth have not boosted consumers’ confidence
• We maintain 5% growth forecast for China’s 2013 ...
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The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility.
In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.
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