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  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Tue April 22, 2014

    • ETF: Focus is on precious metals, notably palladium funds; gold flows are bearish on positive US data • CFTC: The uptick in managed-money flows was led by energy sector; Arabica net spec is overextended...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon March 17, 2014

    • ETF: Fund flows were positive across the entire complex, particularly for gold • CFTC: Aggregate net spec increased again, but cumulative money flow appeared overextended...

  • Copper – An oversold market offers a chance to buy - Updated Mon March 17, 2014

    • 3-month LME copper breaks lower on a lack of confidence about China amid talk about financing deals • Market has overreacted to the possible outcome of unwinding, in our view; we do not see it happening • We maintain our full-year price foreca...

  • 17-Mar – FOMC: Jettisoning the thresholds - Updated Sun March 16, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Metals – Caught between China and Ukraine • Turkey – CBRT expected to leave its policy rate on hold at 10% • Germany – Investor confidence to moderate further in March • Market focus • Fed will likely taper QE by USD 10bn,...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon March 3, 2014

    • ETF: Flows were positive across most of the complex; geopolitical drivers provided tailwinds for gold • CFTC: Managed-money flows trended towards their highest in two years ...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon February 24, 2014

    • ETF: Sentiment towards the broad index turns more bullish; gold sees outflows on price resistance • CFTC: Large speculators turn more bullish towards commodities on high cash flow ...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon February 10, 2014

    • ETF: Flows into commodities were mostly positive, except for base metals • CFTC: Aggregate net spec rose for a fourth straight week; dry weather drove agricultural net spec higher...

  • Metals – Darkness on the edge of town - Updated Wed February 5, 2014

    We are revising our price forecasts across the six LME base metals and the four main precious metals • We expect divergent performance, with some metals rising on tightening balances and others staying flat • Our preferred positive exposures are t...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Tue January 21, 2014

    • ETF: Overall flows were bearish due to outflows from energy and broad-index funds • CFTC: Energy speculators turned more bearish; positions were overextended in copper, gold, and wheat...

  • LME Week 2013 - Updated Fri October 4, 2013

    • China – We revise up our forecast for copper demand growth for this year to 9%, after a strong summer • Mine costs – We see a dramatic rise in operating costs for copper, with Chile losing competitiveness • LME warehousing – We expect continued ...

  • Copper – Getting used to a slower China - Updated Fri August 2, 2013

    Copper consumers in China maintain low-inventory strategy on bearish price outlook and tight credit • Recent macro policy changes aimed at supporting growth have not boosted consumers’ confidence • We maintain 5% growth forecast for China’s 2013 ...

  • Metals – Precious metal markets lead the way down [CORRECTION] - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    This supersedes the version dated 16 July 2013. Page 5, Figure 5 is previous forecasts table. • Gold – Price tumbles and then rebounds as markets react to hopes and fears about US QE • Gold – Short-term risks are to the downside, but spike in leas...

  • Copper – Financing deals face regulatory challenge - Updated Mon May 27, 2013

    China has issued a regulation to tighten supervision on commodities used in financing • The regulation is likely to reduce leverage and encourage the unwinding of financing deals • 3M LME copper faces downside risks in the near term, but the impa...

  • Copper – Under pressure, despite China’s strength - Updated Fri April 5, 2013

    Demand – Problems in Europe are offsetting a seasonal upturn in China • Supply – Chilean strike hits copper shipments and miners are planning further action • Market – LME stock rise needs careful interpretation; premia rally despite stock overhan...

  • Zambia – More regulatory change - Updated Tue March 26, 2013

    • Despite tightening measures, pressure on the currency has persisted • Planned Bank of Zambia Act to allow the central bank to monitor and better regulate current account transactions • Exporters may be required to remit earnings back to Zambia ...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon March 18, 2013

    • ETF: Gold outflows continue to slow; we see this as an early sign that a trough is forming • CFTC: Speculative positions rise 26% w/w, mostly due to the outlook for agricultural commodities...

  • Copper – Through the darkness - Updated Tue March 5, 2013

    • Our discussions with copper consumers in China show that demand is improving • Manufacturers are restocking copper products in preparation for the peak consumption season in Q2 • Refined copper stocks remain at a record-high level, providing hea...

  • Metals – Gold and silver fall out of favour - Updated Wed February 20, 2013

    • Gold – Investors continue to cut US managed-money positions and these are at a multi-year low • Platinum – Tensions continue to simmer and Amplats suspends production temporarily • Palladium – Boosted by South African problems and an upturn in t...

  • Copper – Belt up for takeoff in Zambia - Updated Fri February 8, 2013

    We were impressed by the scale and operations of Konkola and Muliashi mines in Zambia’s copper belt • Zambia needs to add 300MW grid facility to grow production from the belt to 1.5mt from 1mt now • We believe Zambia has an exciting future in copp...

  • Copper – We see limited upside for prices - Updated Mon January 7, 2013

    • Bull case: Upside risks from improving demand backdrop and potential upside for investor positioning • Bear case: Downside risks from supply growth, which is gaining momentum, and ample project pipeline • Technical view: We expect sideways tradi...



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