• Despite tightening measures, pressure on the currency has persisted
• Planned Bank of Zambia Act to allow the central bank to monitor and better regulate current account transactions
• Exporters may be required to remit earnings back to Zambia
Top 3 data/events
• South Korea – Authorities signal their response to KRW gains
• Singapore – Industrial production may rebound
• Thailand – Base effects to boost export growth
• Market focus
• We recommend selling into rallies in copper, as ...
• With an order book of USD 11.9bn, Zambia’s maiden USD 750mn eurobond was a resounding success
• However, a narrow export base and continued copper dependence are rating negatives
• We analyse sensitivity to any sustained fall in copper earnings
• Most in China’s copper business are neutral on the price outlook for H2-2012
• The majority expects China’s H2 copper demand to be soft, at best
• 3M LME copper price has bottomed out, but recovery in H2 will be capped by real demand...
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Top 3 key events and data
• China – Treat PMI data with caution given slowing growth
• South Korea – Weak trade flows and stable inflation expected
• Thailand and Indonesia – Muted CPI inflation
• Copper stocks in China have reached about 1mn tonnes – the highest level ever
• Stocks are building along the supply chain, with demand improving only marginally
• Avoid being too bearish – we expect a stronger H2 despite near-term headwinds fro...
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This report provides an economic outlook for more than 60 economies worldwide and investment implications for commodities, credit, equities, FX and interest rates markets in 2014. We expect a better 2014, with world economic growth picking up and inflation staying benign. Global growth should increase to 3.5% in 2014 from 2.7% in 2013, helped by improvements in economic activity in the US and Europe. A pick-up in growth in the West is good news for the rest of the world, and we expect emerging economies’ growth to outpace G7 growth by almost 4 percentage points.
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