• China – We revise up our forecast for copper demand growth for this year to 9%, after a strong summer
• Mine costs – We see a dramatic rise in operating costs for copper, with Chile losing competitiveness
• LME warehousing – We expect continued ...
Copper consumers in China maintain low-inventory strategy on bearish price outlook and tight credit
• Recent macro policy changes aimed at supporting growth have not boosted consumers’ confidence
• We maintain 5% growth forecast for China’s 2013 ...
China has issued a regulation to tighten supervision on commodities used in financing
• The regulation is likely to reduce leverage and encourage the unwinding of financing deals
• 3M LME copper faces downside risks in the near term, but the impa...
Demand – Problems in Europe are offsetting a seasonal upturn in China
• Supply – Chilean strike hits copper shipments and miners are planning further action
• Market – LME stock rise needs careful interpretation; premia rally despite stock overhan...
• Our discussions with copper consumers in China show that demand is improving
• Manufacturers are restocking copper products in preparation for the peak consumption season in Q2
• Refined copper stocks remain at a record-high level, providing hea...
We were impressed by the scale and operations of Konkola and Muliashi mines in Zambia’s copper belt
• Zambia needs to add 300MW grid facility to grow production from the belt to 1.5mt from 1mt now
• We believe Zambia has an exciting future in copp...
• Most in China’s copper business are neutral on the price outlook for H2-2012
• The majority expects China’s H2 copper demand to be soft, at best
• 3M LME copper price has bottomed out, but recovery in H2 will be capped by real demand...
• Copper stocks in China have reached about 1mn tonnes – the highest level ever
• Stocks are building along the supply chain, with demand improving only marginally
• Avoid being too bearish – we expect a stronger H2 despite near-term headwinds fro...
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This report provides an economic outlook for more than 60 economies worldwide and investment implications for commodities, credit, equities, FX and interest rates markets in 2014. We expect a better 2014, with world economic growth picking up and inflation staying benign. Global growth should increase to 3.5% in 2014 from 2.7% in 2013, helped by improvements in economic activity in the US and Europe. A pick-up in growth in the West is good news for the rest of the world, and we expect emerging economies’ growth to outpace G7 growth by almost 4 percentage points.
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