• Margin pressures, capex cutbacks and asset disposal were dominant themes at Indaba 2015
• Copperbelt producers remain under intense margin pressure at current copper price levels
• Zambia’s new royalty-tax regime is likely to drive more cutbacks...
• 3-month LME copper breaks lower on a lack of confidence about China amid talk about financing deals
• Market has overreacted to the possible outcome of unwinding, in our view; we do not see it happening
• We maintain our full-year price foreca...
• China – We revise up our forecast for copper demand growth for this year to 9%, after a strong summer
• Mine costs – We see a dramatic rise in operating costs for copper, with Chile losing competitiveness
• LME warehousing – We expect continued ...
Copper consumers in China maintain low-inventory strategy on bearish price outlook and tight credit
• Recent macro policy changes aimed at supporting growth have not boosted consumers’ confidence
• We maintain 5% growth forecast for China’s 2013 ...
China has issued a regulation to tighten supervision on commodities used in financing
• The regulation is likely to reduce leverage and encourage the unwinding of financing deals
• 3M LME copper faces downside risks in the near term, but the impa...
Demand – Problems in Europe are offsetting a seasonal upturn in China
• Supply – Chilean strike hits copper shipments and miners are planning further action
• Market – LME stock rise needs careful interpretation; premia rally despite stock overhan...
• Our discussions with copper consumers in China show that demand is improving
• Manufacturers are restocking copper products in preparation for the peak consumption season in Q2
• Refined copper stocks remain at a record-high level, providing hea...
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