We are revising our price forecasts across the six LME base metals and the four main precious metals
• We expect divergent performance, with some metals rising on tightening balances and others staying flat
• Our preferred positive exposures are t...
• China – We revise up our forecast for copper demand growth for this year to 9%, after a strong summer
• Mine costs – We see a dramatic rise in operating costs for copper, with Chile losing competitiveness
• LME warehousing – We expect continued ...
• LME warehousing activity and ownership is under investigation and we expect queues to shorten slowly
• The LME could become the world’s second-largest supplier of metal if interest rates spike
• China’s demand has hit a soft patch in July; prod...
Aluminium is tracking copper for now, but downside is far more limited
• China is suffering from a strong currency and excess local production
• Market view: We see some upside for the short term on technical signals...
• Physical premia rise to record highs as demand improvement clashes with financial forces
• We expect better demand in China, but high production growth will limit the global impact
• Technical view: we see some upside for the short term as risk ...
• Aluminium – Prices have rallied too far and look vulnerable
• Copper – Weak demand growth skews short-term risks to downside
• Silver – Benefiting from renewed fear about inflation and has outperformed
• Gold – We maintain our bullish view and ...
• US stimulus gives the green light to position for a commodity rally
• Continue to hold COMEX silver and LME copper call-option positions
• Enter long positions on NYMEX WTI, ICE cotton, LME lead and NYMEX palladium
• Aluminium – Producers are cutting, but not that aggressively
• Copper – Supply growth in Chile picks up, but a key power project is delayed
• Silver – Leads the metal markets higher, as central banks step up policy action
• Gold – Price breaks ...
• Aluminium – Producers are under pressure to cut and physical premia remain at high levels
• Copper – Chile is showing modest supply growth, but Olympic Dam mine expansion is delayed
• Nickel – The price has underperformed, but should be close to...
• Producer cuts plus outages help tighten the market
• Physical premia jump as competition between consumers and investors intensifies
• Steep contango offers a yield, but we expect this to diminish going forward...
• Aluminium – Physical premia skyrocket as bottlenecks limit LME withdrawals
• Copper – China’s apparent consumption was strong in June, although this needs careful interpretation
• Gold – Bernanke disappointed on QE; focus is now on US GDP data a...
• We provide an update of our portfolio, including trades from our Roadmap publication
• New trades: Enter long BMD crude palm oil (CPO) Sep 12 futures...
• We expect aluminium prices to trend higher as the cost base rises and the market tightens
• China’s dramatic shift West will bring down power tariffs and increase competitiveness
• We see prices rallying above USD 3,000/t in a high-demand scenar...
• Gold – US speculators are still selling; World Gold Council highlights a demand drop in Q1
• Platinum group metals – Sentiment is bearish and investors are switching into palladium
• Base metals – Tightness in copper is easing; positive news flo...
• Gold/silver – Gold investors are selling, but downside for US speculators now looks limited
• Platinum group metals – Johnson Matthey flags up an improving fundamental picture
• Base metals – Copper is trending down, but LME stocks are still fal...
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The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility.
In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.
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