Focus: Low gas prices are reducing coal’s share of the US power mix; regulation is adding to that move
Base metal prices have risen strongly, although supply and demand fundamentals remain sluggish
Oil prices have firmed on the first sign of possi...
Metals prices remain caught between sluggish fundamentals and positive macro developments in Q2
• Short -covering driven price rallies should be faded until more tangible evidence of better demand levels emerges
• We now anticipate limited upside...
China’s commodity demand has been mixed, with bulks weak and oil demand particularly robust
• Demand growth deceleration rather than y/y contraction was evident for most metals in Q1
• China’s crude processing volumes reached a new high, resultin...
China’s aluminium production will likely remain strong in 2015 on aggressive capacity expansions
• Improving smelting profitability owing to substantially lower power costs...
Focus: The long-term story of zinc mine closures offers little fundamental support to prices in 2015
• Further signs that US shale oil output is falling; we expect the decline to accelerate in May
• Robust strength of China’s apparent copper deman...
Focus: The recession in the US oil and gas industry is set to be the second largest in the past 65 years
• China’s aluminium semis exports fell in March, constrained by lower ex-China physical premiums
• US crude oil inventories continue to rise;...
• OPEC’s share of China’s crude oil imports has seen a limited recovery so far in 2015
• The collapse in scrap imports supported China’s primary copper cathode demand in February
• Crude oil imports have maintained their strong y/y rise; oil produ...
• Focus: Power demand in Saudi Arabia is likely to reduce oil exports over the next two quarters
• Rebound in China’s SME confidence points to improving metal supply-chain activity in March
• Oil prices spiked higher briefly following Saudi-led ai...
Focus: A rise in uncompleted wells implies that US oil output is falling faster than the consensus view
• China’s nickel deficit is expected to grow in H1
• Global oil surplus is heavily concentrated in the US and is entirely in crude oil rather t...
• Overview – In a challenging market environment, macroeconomic and policy divergence – the ‘new normal’ – remains the critical foundation of our updated views and forecasts, with the US economy, USD and US rates leading the way higher. This will ev...
Focus: Our 2016 supply and demand forecasts are now available in Standard Chartered Scenarios
• Latest China metals production data points to a mixed picture for demand conditions in early 2015
• Oil prices have fallen sharply, primarily due to a ...
• You are cordially invited to join us for an update call at 09:00 GMT on Thursday 19 March (with Q&A) with:
• Nicholas Snowdon, Commodities Research, London
• John Dennis, Executive Director, Head, Base Metals Sales
• Bradley Campbell, Execu...
Sluggish China demand has outweighed mounting supply constraints in driving price action so far in 2015
• The turn lower in aluminium physical premia should generate medium-term support for LME prices
• The copper concentrate market deficit has st...
Focus: Softness in the zinc physical market points to continued near-term relative underperformance
• China’s preliminary trade data shows falls in copper imports and aluminium product exports
• Key monthly oil reports are due in the next week; we...
• Focus: Drilling in the Bakken shale has fallen by 42% in three months; output is likely to fall in April
• China’s metal demand growth moderated but did not collapse in January
• Oil prices have continued their rebound, but are still low enough ...
• Focus: Nickel was in surplus in 2014; however, we expect the market to move into deficit in 2015
• Further rig-count falls reinforce our view that US shale oil output growth will disappear in April
• ICSG data shows copper concentrate market de...
• Margin pressures, capex cutbacks and asset disposal were dominant themes at Indaba 2015
• Copperbelt producers remain under intense margin pressure at current copper price levels
• Zambia’s new royalty-tax regime is likely to drive more cutbacks...
• Focus: The fundamental outlook for OPEC has improved rapidly, particularly for H2
• Further signs of slowdown in China’s metal demand keep sentiment muted
• Brent prices have rallied above USD 60/bbl on expectations of a rapid weakening in non-O...
• Focus: Volatility in commodities has increased markedly in 2015 to date compared with last year
• A fall in China's copper concentrate imports in January points to cutbacks in refined output
• US oil drilling has fallen sharply again; market v...
• Focus: US shale oil output is set to fall m/m in April; it will fall for the rest of 2015 if prices stay low
• Base metal prices remain torn between demand pessimism and supply-side pressures
• Oil prices have rallied as the scale and speed of...
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