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  • Metals – Darkness on the edge of town - Updated Wed February 5, 2014

    We are revising our price forecasts across the six LME base metals and the four main precious metals • We expect divergent performance, with some metals rising on tightening balances and others staying flat • Our preferred positive exposures are t...

  • LME Week 2013 - Updated Fri October 4, 2013

    • China – We revise up our forecast for copper demand growth for this year to 9%, after a strong summer • Mine costs – We see a dramatic rise in operating costs for copper, with Chile losing competitiveness • LME warehousing – We expect continued ...

  • Aluminium – New news and old news - Updated Thu July 25, 2013

    • LME warehousing activity and ownership is under investigation and we expect queues to shorten slowly • The LME could become the world’s second-largest supplier of metal if interest rates spike • China’s demand has hit a soft patch in July; prod...

  • Aluminium – We see upside risks from here - Updated Thu April 18, 2013

    Aluminium is tracking copper for now, but downside is far more limited • China is suffering from a strong currency and excess local production • Market view: We see some upside for the short term on technical signals...

  • Aluminium – Oversupplied and under-delivered - Updated Thu January 31, 2013

    • Physical premia rise to record highs as demand improvement clashes with financial forces • We expect better demand in China, but high production growth will limit the global impact • Technical view: we see some upside for the short term as risk ...

  • Metals – More QE from Fed, but boost is short-lived - Updated Tue September 18, 2012

    • Aluminium – Prices have rallied too far and look vulnerable • Copper – Weak demand growth skews short-term risks to downside • Silver – Benefiting from renewed fear about inflation and has outperformed • Gold – We maintain our bullish view and ...

  • Commodity Vector Portfolio - Updated Fri September 14, 2012

    • US stimulus gives the green light to position for a commodity rally • Continue to hold COMEX silver and LME copper call-option positions • Enter long positions on NYMEX WTI, ICE cotton, LME lead and NYMEX palladium ...

  • Metals – Markets break higher, as ECB delivers - Updated Fri September 7, 2012

    • Aluminium – Producers are cutting, but not that aggressively • Copper – Supply growth in Chile picks up, but a key power project is delayed • Silver – Leads the metal markets higher, as central banks step up policy action • Gold – Price breaks ...

  • Metals – Base metals lead the way higher - Updated Wed August 8, 2012

    • Aluminium – Producers are under pressure to cut and physical premia remain at high levels • Copper – Chile is showing modest supply growth, but Olympic Dam mine expansion is delayed • Nickel – The price has underperformed, but should be close to...

  • Aluminium – Yield hunt to flatten forward curve - Updated Mon August 6, 2012

    • Producer cuts plus outages help tighten the market • Physical premia jump as competition between consumers and investors intensifies • Steep contango offers a yield, but we expect this to diminish going forward...

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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.