We are revising our price forecasts across the six LME base metals and the four main precious metals
• We expect divergent performance, with some metals rising on tightening balances and others staying flat
• Our preferred positive exposures are t...
• China – We revise up our forecast for copper demand growth for this year to 9%, after a strong summer
• Mine costs – We see a dramatic rise in operating costs for copper, with Chile losing competitiveness
• LME warehousing – We expect continued ...
• LME warehousing activity and ownership is under investigation and we expect queues to shorten slowly
• The LME could become the world’s second-largest supplier of metal if interest rates spike
• China’s demand has hit a soft patch in July; prod...
Aluminium is tracking copper for now, but downside is far more limited
• China is suffering from a strong currency and excess local production
• Market view: We see some upside for the short term on technical signals...
• Physical premia rise to record highs as demand improvement clashes with financial forces
• We expect better demand in China, but high production growth will limit the global impact
• Technical view: we see some upside for the short term as risk ...
• Aluminium – Prices have rallied too far and look vulnerable
• Copper – Weak demand growth skews short-term risks to downside
• Silver – Benefiting from renewed fear about inflation and has outperformed
• Gold – We maintain our bullish view and ...
• US stimulus gives the green light to position for a commodity rally
• Continue to hold COMEX silver and LME copper call-option positions
• Enter long positions on NYMEX WTI, ICE cotton, LME lead and NYMEX palladium
• Aluminium – Producers are cutting, but not that aggressively
• Copper – Supply growth in Chile picks up, but a key power project is delayed
• Silver – Leads the metal markets higher, as central banks step up policy action
• Gold – Price breaks ...
• Aluminium – Producers are under pressure to cut and physical premia remain at high levels
• Copper – Chile is showing modest supply growth, but Olympic Dam mine expansion is delayed
• Nickel – The price has underperformed, but should be close to...
• Producer cuts plus outages help tighten the market
• Physical premia jump as competition between consumers and investors intensifies
• Steep contango offers a yield, but we expect this to diminish going forward...
• Aluminium – Physical premia skyrocket as bottlenecks limit LME withdrawals
• Copper – China’s apparent consumption was strong in June, although this needs careful interpretation
• Gold – Bernanke disappointed on QE; focus is now on US GDP data a...
• We provide an update of our portfolio, including trades from our Roadmap publication
• New trades: Enter long BMD crude palm oil (CPO) Sep 12 futures...
• We expect aluminium prices to trend higher as the cost base rises and the market tightens
• China’s dramatic shift West will bring down power tariffs and increase competitiveness
• We see prices rallying above USD 3,000/t in a high-demand scenar...
• Gold – US speculators are still selling; World Gold Council highlights a demand drop in Q1
• Platinum group metals – Sentiment is bearish and investors are switching into palladium
• Base metals – Tightness in copper is easing; positive news flo...
• Gold/silver – Gold investors are selling, but downside for US speculators now looks limited
• Platinum group metals – Johnson Matthey flags up an improving fundamental picture
• Base metals – Copper is trending down, but LME stocks are still fal...
• Gold/silver – Investors are cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting
• Platinum group metals – Significant cut in ETF holdings
• Base metals – Our meetings in China suggest weak sentiment and stock builds along the supply chain...
• Spot gold – Technically, we expect losses to accelerate for a break towards USD 1,522/oz and lower
• Spot platinum – We favour losses below USD 1,430/oz over the coming weeks
• LME aluminium – The bear pullback should challenge USD 1,955/t and ...
• Spot gold – We expect losses below USD 1,610/oz to exacerbate a bear trend
• Spot platinum – We favour bear pressure to increase as a medium-term top unfolds
• LME aluminium – The turn lower is likely to challenge USD 1,955/t
• LME copper – T...
• Gold/silver – Gold outperforms and ignores headwinds from USD strength
• Platinum group metals – Palladium and platinum sees investor outflows, but auto data is supportive
• Base metals – China trade data in March dampens copper and aluminium pr...
• Spot gold – Technical analysis points to a breakdown to USD 1,522/oz and lower
• Spot platinum – Further losses below USD 1,580/oz are expected
• LME aluminium – We favour a push below USD 1,955/t to leave USD 1,828/t and lower open
• LME copp...
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This report provides an economic outlook for more than 60 economies worldwide and investment implications for commodities, credit, equities, FX and interest rates markets in 2014. We expect a better 2014, with world economic growth picking up and inflation staying benign. Global growth should increase to 3.5% in 2014 from 2.7% in 2013, helped by improvements in economic activity in the US and Europe. A pick-up in growth in the West is good news for the rest of the world, and we expect emerging economies’ growth to outpace G7 growth by almost 4 percentage points.
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