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  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Tue April 22, 2014

    • ETF: Focus is on precious metals, notably palladium funds; gold flows are bearish on positive US data • CFTC: The uptick in managed-money flows was led by energy sector; Arabica net spec is overextended...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon March 31, 2014

    • ETF: Fund flows were relatively slow; natural gas funds saw bearish flows • CFTC: Speculative money flows peaked, indicating future downside pressure on energy and metals ...

  • Oil – Running in the shadows - Updated Thu March 20, 2014

    • il-price volatility is likely to rise on the basis of limited supply buffers and increased supply risks • e present our 2014 and 2015 oil balances, showing strong demand and strong North American supply • e adjust our price forecasts for 2014,...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon March 17, 2014

    • ETF: Fund flows were positive across the entire complex, particularly for gold • CFTC: Aggregate net spec increased again, but cumulative money flow appeared overextended...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon March 3, 2014

    • ETF: Flows were positive across most of the complex; geopolitical drivers provided tailwinds for gold • CFTC: Managed-money flows trended towards their highest in two years ...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon February 24, 2014

    • ETF: Sentiment towards the broad index turns more bullish; gold sees outflows on price resistance • CFTC: Large speculators turn more bullish towards commodities on high cash flow ...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon February 10, 2014

    • ETF: Flows into commodities were mostly positive, except for base metals • CFTC: Aggregate net spec rose for a fourth straight week; dry weather drove agricultural net spec higher...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Tue January 21, 2014

    • ETF: Overall flows were bearish due to outflows from energy and broad-index funds • CFTC: Energy speculators turned more bearish; positions were overextended in copper, gold, and wheat...

  • Crude palm oil – Output slips on wet weather - Updated Wed November 13, 2013

    Risks to Indonesia’s CPO output are to the downside as plantations enter a low-yielding cycle • China’s CPO inventories fall sharply and import volumes start to recover • Market dynamics currently support our view of stronger CPO prices in Q4-2013...

  • Commodity investor flows - Updated Mon November 11, 2013

    • ETF: Gold inflows buck the norm; commodity inflows remain mixed, with energy (ex-oil) benefiting • CFTC: Aggregate net spec falls by 23.5%; cocoa and sugar look increasingly overextended...

  • Crude oil – Shale oil yet to upset the balance - Updated Tue November 5, 2013

    The EIA recently doubled its US peak tight-oil output forecast; we believe it is still too conservative • Increased disruptions in the MENA region will keep oil prices high in the next 12 months • Reported inventory is below the seasonal mean, ref...

  • Iraq – Security situation worsens - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    • We revise our GDP growth forecast down on oil output, which is constrained by the operating environment • The security situation has worsened substantially in recent months • Oil potential remains vast but thwarted for now ...

  • Bahrain – Oil is the focus - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    • The non-hydrocarbon sector continues to show subpar metrics • Moody’s has downgraded Bahrain again • Refinery output capacity should rise by 38% ...

  • Crude oil – Shifting sands in Saudi Arabia - Updated Wed September 11, 2013

    • Saudi Arabia’s influence on oil markets should remain strong despite rising non-OPEC output • Saudi Arabia will maintain its role in balancing the market as it responds to rising domestic demand • We expect Brent to average USD 108/bbl in 2013 a...

  • Indonesia – A primer on the balance of payments - Updated Tue September 3, 2013

    • Although Indonesia’s economic fundamentals are still strong, its external exposures are rising • Balance-of-payments deterioration needs to be addressed with structural rather than ad-hoc measures • External debt has risen in recent years, but ...

  • Crude oil – Strength from discipline - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    Supplier outages, OPEC discipline and geopolitical tensions will keep prices high • QE tapering may introduce volatility, but we believe its impact on average prices will be limited near-term • Brent is within our H2 forecast range of USD 105-115/...

  • Crude oil – A rebound echoing last summer [Correction] - Updated Mon April 29, 2013

    This supersedes the version dated 26 April 2013. On page 4, 2nd paragraph, corrects Sudan and Syria’s oil flows to kbd from mmbd; corrects Iran’s supply to 1.2mmbd from 1,200mmbd. • We expect a stronger H2 as OPEC discipline and higher demand keep ...

  • Crude oil - Updated Thu April 18, 2013

    We expect oil to retreat slightly in Q2 before moving higher again • OPEC restraint has kept markets balanced and prices firm • Biggest risk to our forecast is reduced tensions in the Middle East...

  • Uganda – A slow recovery - Updated Tue March 26, 2013

    • Gradual recovery in real GDP looks likely in 2013 • Inflation concerns mean the policy rate should remain on hold until 2014 • Oil will provide a long-term boost to growth, but production is still several years away ...

  • Oil products – In the midst of change - Updated Tue March 12, 2013

    • Expansions in refinery capacity come shining through in record throughput volumes in China and India • Margins to remain supported in a low product-high crude inventory environment as demand continues • The bias is to the downside with the impen...



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