• ETF: Flows were positive across most of the complex; geopolitical drivers provided tailwinds for gold
• CFTC: Managed-money flows trended towards their highest in two years
• ETF: Sentiment towards the broad index turns more bullish; gold sees outflows on price resistance
• CFTC: Large speculators turn more bullish towards commodities on high cash flow
• ETF: Flows into commodities were mostly positive, except for base metals
• CFTC: Aggregate net spec rose for a fourth straight week; dry weather drove agricultural net spec higher...
• ETF: Overall flows were bearish due to outflows from energy and broad-index funds
• CFTC: Energy speculators turned more bearish; positions were overextended in copper, gold, and wheat...
Risks to Indonesia’s CPO output are to the downside as plantations enter a low-yielding cycle
• China’s CPO inventories fall sharply and import volumes start to recover
• Market dynamics currently support our view of stronger CPO prices in Q4-2013...
• ETF: Gold inflows buck the norm; commodity inflows remain mixed, with energy (ex-oil) benefiting
• CFTC: Aggregate net spec falls by 23.5%; cocoa and sugar look increasingly overextended...
The EIA recently doubled its US peak tight-oil output forecast; we believe it is still too conservative
• Increased disruptions in the MENA region will keep oil prices high in the next 12 months
• Reported inventory is below the seasonal mean, ref...
• We revise our GDP growth forecast down on oil output, which is constrained by the operating environment
• The security situation has worsened substantially in recent months
• Oil potential remains vast but thwarted for now
• The non-hydrocarbon sector continues to show subpar metrics
• Moody’s has downgraded Bahrain again
• Refinery output capacity should rise by 38%
• Saudi Arabia’s influence on oil markets should remain strong despite rising non-OPEC output
• Saudi Arabia will maintain its role in balancing the market as it responds to rising domestic demand
• We expect Brent to average USD 108/bbl in 2013 a...
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This report provides an economic outlook for more than 60 economies worldwide and investment implications for commodities, credit, equities, FX and interest rates markets in 2014. We expect a better 2014, with world economic growth picking up and inflation staying benign. Global growth should increase to 3.5% in 2014 from 2.7% in 2013, helped by improvements in economic activity in the US and Europe. A pick-up in growth in the West is good news for the rest of the world, and we expect emerging economies’ growth to outpace G7 growth by almost 4 percentage points.
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