• ETF: Focus is on precious metals, notably palladium funds; gold flows are bearish on positive US data
• CFTC: The uptick in managed-money flows was led by energy sector; Arabica net spec is overextended...
• ETF: Fund flows were relatively slow; natural gas funds saw bearish flows
• CFTC: Speculative money flows peaked, indicating future downside pressure on energy and metals
• il-price volatility is likely to rise on the basis of limited supply buffers and increased supply risks
• e present our 2014 and 2015 oil balances, showing strong demand and strong North American supply
• e adjust our price forecasts for 2014,...
• ETF: Fund flows were positive across the entire complex, particularly for gold
• CFTC: Aggregate net spec increased again, but cumulative money flow appeared overextended...
• ETF: Flows were positive across most of the complex; geopolitical drivers provided tailwinds for gold
• CFTC: Managed-money flows trended towards their highest in two years
• ETF: Sentiment towards the broad index turns more bullish; gold sees outflows on price resistance
• CFTC: Large speculators turn more bullish towards commodities on high cash flow
• ETF: Flows into commodities were mostly positive, except for base metals
• CFTC: Aggregate net spec rose for a fourth straight week; dry weather drove agricultural net spec higher...
• ETF: Overall flows were bearish due to outflows from energy and broad-index funds
• CFTC: Energy speculators turned more bearish; positions were overextended in copper, gold, and wheat...
Risks to Indonesia’s CPO output are to the downside as plantations enter a low-yielding cycle
• China’s CPO inventories fall sharply and import volumes start to recover
• Market dynamics currently support our view of stronger CPO prices in Q4-2013...
• ETF: Gold inflows buck the norm; commodity inflows remain mixed, with energy (ex-oil) benefiting
• CFTC: Aggregate net spec falls by 23.5%; cocoa and sugar look increasingly overextended...
The EIA recently doubled its US peak tight-oil output forecast; we believe it is still too conservative
• Increased disruptions in the MENA region will keep oil prices high in the next 12 months
• Reported inventory is below the seasonal mean, ref...
• We revise our GDP growth forecast down on oil output, which is constrained by the operating environment
• The security situation has worsened substantially in recent months
• Oil potential remains vast but thwarted for now
• The non-hydrocarbon sector continues to show subpar metrics
• Moody’s has downgraded Bahrain again
• Refinery output capacity should rise by 38%
• Saudi Arabia’s influence on oil markets should remain strong despite rising non-OPEC output
• Saudi Arabia will maintain its role in balancing the market as it responds to rising domestic demand
• We expect Brent to average USD 108/bbl in 2013 a...
• Although Indonesia’s economic fundamentals are still strong, its external exposures are rising
• Balance-of-payments deterioration needs to be addressed with structural rather than ad-hoc measures
• External debt has risen in recent years, but ...
Supplier outages, OPEC discipline and geopolitical tensions will keep prices high
• QE tapering may introduce volatility, but we believe its impact on average prices will be limited near-term
• Brent is within our H2 forecast range of USD 105-115/...
This supersedes the version dated 26 April 2013. On page 4, 2nd paragraph, corrects Sudan and Syria’s oil flows to kbd from mmbd; corrects Iran’s supply to 1.2mmbd from 1,200mmbd.
• We expect a stronger H2 as OPEC discipline and higher demand keep ...
We expect oil to retreat slightly in Q2 before moving higher again
• OPEC restraint has kept markets balanced and prices firm
• Biggest risk to our forecast is reduced tensions in the Middle East...
• Gradual recovery in real GDP looks likely in 2013
• Inflation concerns mean the policy rate should remain on hold until 2014
• Oil will provide a long-term boost to growth, but production is still several years away
• Expansions in refinery capacity come shining through in record throughput volumes in China and India
• Margins to remain supported in a low product-high crude inventory environment as demand continues
• The bias is to the downside with the impen...
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The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility.
In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.
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