• ETF: Fund flows were relatively slow; natural gas funds saw bearish flows
• CFTC: Speculative money flows peaked, indicating future downside pressure on energy and metals
• il-price volatility is likely to rise on the basis of limited supply buffers and increased supply risks
• e present our 2014 and 2015 oil balances, showing strong demand and strong North American supply
• e adjust our price forecasts for 2014,...
• ETF: Fund flows were positive across the entire complex, particularly for gold
• CFTC: Aggregate net spec increased again, but cumulative money flow appeared overextended...
• ETF: Flows were positive across most of the complex; geopolitical drivers provided tailwinds for gold
• CFTC: Managed-money flows trended towards their highest in two years
• ETF: Sentiment towards the broad index turns more bullish; gold sees outflows on price resistance
• CFTC: Large speculators turn more bullish towards commodities on high cash flow
• ETF: Flows into commodities were mostly positive, except for base metals
• CFTC: Aggregate net spec rose for a fourth straight week; dry weather drove agricultural net spec higher...
• ETF: Overall flows were bearish due to outflows from energy and broad-index funds
• CFTC: Energy speculators turned more bearish; positions were overextended in copper, gold, and wheat...
Risks to Indonesia’s CPO output are to the downside as plantations enter a low-yielding cycle
• China’s CPO inventories fall sharply and import volumes start to recover
• Market dynamics currently support our view of stronger CPO prices in Q4-2013...
• ETF: Gold inflows buck the norm; commodity inflows remain mixed, with energy (ex-oil) benefiting
• CFTC: Aggregate net spec falls by 23.5%; cocoa and sugar look increasingly overextended...
The EIA recently doubled its US peak tight-oil output forecast; we believe it is still too conservative
• Increased disruptions in the MENA region will keep oil prices high in the next 12 months
• Reported inventory is below the seasonal mean, ref...
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The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility.
In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.
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