Focus: After six months of increase, US oil inventories are falling sharply relative to seasonal norms
• Rising LME stocks point to a nickel market surplus in Q2
• OPEC meets on 5 June; policy is unlikely to change, but Saudi statements likely to ...
A strong surge in China’s crude oil imports has helped to tighten global balances
• Metals trade data points to modest improvement in China demand growth rates in April versus Q1
• China’s y/y oil demand growth has stayed above 8% for a second mon...
Focus: The main contribution to oil-market rebalancing has come from demand
• ILZSG data shows the refined zinc market quarterly surplus in Q1-2015 was the largest since 2011
• The decline in US shale oil output looks set to accelerate in June and...
Focus: We expect conventional non-OPEC oil supply to fall sharply in H2
• China’s copper imports strength in April points to improving demand conditions
• US oil supply looks set to fall for the rest of 2015, despite a gradual recovery in rig coun...
Focus: Low gas prices are reducing coal’s share of the US power mix; regulation is adding to that move
Base metal prices have risen strongly, although supply and demand fundamentals remain sluggish
Oil prices have firmed on the first sign of possi...
• Focus: No V-shaped recovery is likely for US oil output
• Turn in macro trends triggers short-covering rally across base metals but fundamentals remain soft
• Brent crude oil prices have pushed above USD 65/bbl for the first time in 2015 as sent...
Top 3 data/events
• Taiwan – Beware excessive euphoria
• United States – Durable goods to show still-strong industry headwinds
• Oil – US oil production set to fall heavily
• Market focus
• We expect the BoJ to add at least JPY10tn to the ass...
China’s commodity demand has been mixed, with bulks weak and oil demand particularly robust
• Demand growth deceleration rather than y/y contraction was evident for most metals in Q1
• China’s crude processing volumes reached a new high, resultin...
Focus: The long-term story of zinc mine closures offers little fundamental support to prices in 2015
• Further signs that US shale oil output is falling; we expect the decline to accelerate in May
• Robust strength of China’s apparent copper deman...
Focus: The recession in the US oil and gas industry is set to be the second largest in the past 65 years
• China’s aluminium semis exports fell in March, constrained by lower ex-China physical premiums
• US crude oil inventories continue to rise;...
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