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  • Iraq – Security situation worsens - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    • We revise our GDP growth forecast down on oil output, which is constrained by the operating environment • The security situation has worsened substantially in recent months • Oil potential remains vast but thwarted for now ...

  • Bahrain – Oil is the focus - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    • The non-hydrocarbon sector continues to show subpar metrics • Moody’s has downgraded Bahrain again • Refinery output capacity should rise by 38% ...

  • Q4 – A temporary delay - Updated Mon September 30, 2013

    Overview – The Fed’s surprise ‘no taper’ decision continues to dominate the market’s focus. While this should be supportive of risk appetite near-term, we see it as a temporary delay to the normalisation process and leave our UST forecasts unchanged...

  • Indonesia – A primer on the balance of payments - Updated Tue September 3, 2013

    • Although Indonesia’s economic fundamentals are still strong, its external exposures are rising • Balance-of-payments deterioration needs to be addressed with structural rather than ad-hoc measures • External debt has risen in recent years, but ...

  • Q3 – Managing volatility - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    Overview – We remain long-term bulls as the ‘governing dynamics’ of the FX market remain USD-positive. In this environment, we strongly recommend that corporates focus on managing translation risk. For central banks, we recommend staying defensive, ...

  • Asia Focus - Macro resilience - Updated Tue July 2, 2013

    • Worries over the impact of eventual US tightening and policy actions in China may have affected markets, but Asia’s underlying macro resilience remains intact. Domestic demand indicators have been holding up. We have downgraded our 2013 growth for...

  • Nigeria – Policy choices - Updated Tue March 26, 2013

    • Despite a modest planned increase in 2013 spending, budget oil-revenue assumptions are still optimistic • Augmentation of revenue from Nigeria’s Excess Crude Account is still possible • Calls for greater monetary easing, given near-term growth c...

  • Africa Regional overview – Fiscal policy in focus - Updated Tue March 26, 2013

    • Fiscal policy is likely to be constrained in 2013 in a number of Sub-Saharan African sovereigns • In some countries, debt levels have increased to worrying levels • Reducing energy subsidies can alleviate the pressure on public finances ...

  • Uganda – A slow recovery - Updated Tue March 26, 2013

    • Gradual recovery in real GDP looks likely in 2013 • Inflation concerns mean the policy rate should remain on hold until 2014 • Oil will provide a long-term boost to growth, but production is still several years away ...

  • Ghana – In search of fiscal visibility - Updated Tue March 26, 2013

    • Ghana surprised markets with its admission of spending overruns in 2012, resulting in a deficit of 12.1% of GDP • Despite reforms, in 2013 – typically the most benign year of the political cycle – the deficit narrows to only 9% of GDP • Large de...



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In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.