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  • Iraq – Security situation worsens - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    • We revise our GDP growth forecast down on oil output, which is constrained by the operating environment • The security situation has worsened substantially in recent months • Oil potential remains vast but thwarted for now ...

  • Bahrain – Oil is the focus - Updated Wed October 9, 2013

    • The non-hydrocarbon sector continues to show subpar metrics • Moody’s has downgraded Bahrain again • Refinery output capacity should rise by 38% ...

  • Q4 – A temporary delay - Updated Mon September 30, 2013

    Overview – The Fed’s surprise ‘no taper’ decision continues to dominate the market’s focus. While this should be supportive of risk appetite near-term, we see it as a temporary delay to the normalisation process and leave our UST forecasts unchanged...

  • Indonesia – A primer on the balance of payments - Updated Tue September 3, 2013

    • Although Indonesia’s economic fundamentals are still strong, its external exposures are rising • Balance-of-payments deterioration needs to be addressed with structural rather than ad-hoc measures • External debt has risen in recent years, but ...

  • Q3 – Managing volatility - Updated Tue July 16, 2013

    Overview – We remain long-term bulls as the ‘governing dynamics’ of the FX market remain USD-positive. In this environment, we strongly recommend that corporates focus on managing translation risk. For central banks, we recommend staying defensive, ...

  • Asia Focus - Macro resilience - Updated Tue July 2, 2013

    • Worries over the impact of eventual US tightening and policy actions in China may have affected markets, but Asia’s underlying macro resilience remains intact. Domestic demand indicators have been holding up. We have downgraded our 2013 growth for...

  • Nigeria – Policy choices - Updated Tue March 26, 2013

    • Despite a modest planned increase in 2013 spending, budget oil-revenue assumptions are still optimistic • Augmentation of revenue from Nigeria’s Excess Crude Account is still possible • Calls for greater monetary easing, given near-term growth c...

  • Africa Regional overview – Fiscal policy in focus - Updated Tue March 26, 2013

    • Fiscal policy is likely to be constrained in 2013 in a number of Sub-Saharan African sovereigns • In some countries, debt levels have increased to worrying levels • Reducing energy subsidies can alleviate the pressure on public finances ...

  • Uganda – A slow recovery - Updated Tue March 26, 2013

    • Gradual recovery in real GDP looks likely in 2013 • Inflation concerns mean the policy rate should remain on hold until 2014 • Oil will provide a long-term boost to growth, but production is still several years away ...

  • Ghana – In search of fiscal visibility - Updated Tue March 26, 2013

    • Ghana surprised markets with its admission of spending overruns in 2012, resulting in a deficit of 12.1% of GDP • Despite reforms, in 2013 – typically the most benign year of the political cycle – the deficit narrows to only 9% of GDP • Large de...

  • Kenya – Economy on a recovery path - Updated Tue March 26, 2013

    • Greater certainty post-election is required for markets to rally • Economic recovery is evident from the high-frequency data • Managing fiscal devolution post-election will be a key challenge ...

  • Africa Focus - Sound growth, fiscal challenges - Updated Tue March 19, 2013

    • Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth momentum continues to be robust. New resource discoveries, firm trends in credit growth underscoring domestic consumption, and increased infrastructure investment are all important drivers of the region’s growth trend. ...

  • 01-Feb-13 – The euro and the currency wars - Updated Thu January 31, 2013

    • Singapore – PMI likely remained in contractionary territory • Oil – Rising crude prices are likely to be reined in • US – Lacklustre public-sector job data probably weighed on payrolls ...

  • Q1 – Flows versus fundamentals - Updated Thu January 24, 2013

    Overview – The year ahead should see stronger growth, boosting higher-beta assets and currencies, but the path will not be linear. We expect volatility in H1 before a more self-sustaining recovery in H2. We recommend Asian exporters maintain neutral...

  • 04-Jan-13 – Building case for AXJ rotation - Updated Thu January 3, 2013

    Top 3 data/events • Nigeria – Long NGN 5Y trade target revised to 11% • Taiwan – Inflation expected to pick up, exports to continue to improve • Commodities – Rising speculative positions on Brent and gasoil • Market focus • Case for AXJ rotat...

  • 15-Oct-12 – Underexposed to Asia - Updated Sun October 14, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Waiting for more hints from the RBA meeting minutes • Euro area – ZEW surveys to show still-unsettled investor confidence • United States – September retail sales likely continued to bounce back • Market focus ...

  • Q4 – Diversification - Updated Mon October 8, 2012

    Overview • Macro outlook • FX outlook • Rates outlook • Commodities outlook • Corporate strategy • Central bank strategy...

  • Q3 – Catching the turn - Updated Wed July 11, 2012

    Overview • Macro outlook • FX outlook • Rates outlook • Commodities outlook • Corporate strategy • Central bank strategy...

  • 01-Jun-12 – Locals to provide bond-market support - Updated Thu May 31, 2012

    Top 3 data/events • China – A bleak month for the CNY • Crude oil – Upside still likely • United States – No fast progress on NFP • Market focus • Inflation expectations have been curtailed in light of the euro-area crisis • Central banks in...

  • 01 June – From politics to central banks - Updated Thu May 31, 2012

    • China data expected to show inflation and growth moderating in May • South Korea and Australia likely to leave interest rates on hold • We expect rate cuts in Uganda and Kenya • European Central Bank could leave a window open for future action...



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Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.