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  • 17-Mar – Further SSA currency weakness likely - Updated Mon March 16, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Trade data likely disappointed in February • Malaysia – We expect inflation to have slowed further in February • UK – We expect unanimous MPC and robust labour-market data • Market focus • USD-NGN is likely to adjus...

  • CHF – Careful what you wish for - Updated Mon March 16, 2015

    We believe the SNB has succeeded in making the CHF unattractive after the scrapping of EUR-CHF floor • Despite recent CHF losses, the FX market in our view has yet to price in the likely Swiss recession in H1 • We revise our Swiss economic and FX ...

  • 16-Mar – BoJ will likely move in April not March - Updated Sun March 15, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore - We expect modest NODX growth in January-February • Turkey – CBRT will likely keep rates unchanged • South Africa – C/A deficit to highlight ongoing vulnerability • Market focus • We expect no BoJ easing at the 16...

  • 13-Mar – BI likely to cut and signal a long pause - Updated Thu March 12, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – Trade surplus likely increased in February • India – WPI likely moved lower in February • Philippines – Remittance growth likely slowed in January • Market focus • We expect BI to cut the BI rate and the FASBI r...

  • Korea – Which came first, the BoK or the market? - Updated Thu March 12, 2015

    • BoK cuts the base rate to a record-low 1.75%, against consensus • We expect no further easing this year • We recommend Underweight short-term FX weighting on the KRW and Neutral on KTB duration ...

  • Bank of Korea cuts base rate 25bps - Updated Thu March 12, 2015

    Event – The Bank of Korea (BoK) surprised the market today by cutting the base rate by 25bps to 1.75%, a record low – even lower than the level reached during the global financial crisis in 2009. The move was against the market consensus view of no ...

  • 12-Mar – TRY: The party’s over - Updated Wed March 11, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Switzerland – FX irony • Singapore – Retail sales likely remained sluggish in January • United States – Oil boost still not in the spending data • Market focus • Political interference in monetary policy has been in focus ...

  • Singapore – We expect another MAS move in April - Updated Wed March 11, 2015

    We expect the MAS to follow up on January’s surprise easing by re-centring the band 2% lower • We examine what we think are the six most plausible MAS decision scenarios • FX: Maintain Underweight FX weighting on the SGD; remain short SGD-THB v...

  • 11-Mar – India: A data-heavy week - Updated Tue March 10, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Unemployment rate likely rose again to a 13-year high • South Korea – We expect the BoK to remain on hold • Euro area – Industrial production likely registered modest growth • Market focus • February CPI likel...

  • ECB QE – Will it work? - Updated Tue March 10, 2015

    • You are cordially invited to join us for an exclusive conference call presentation on Thursday 12 March 2015. There will be 2 sessions: 16:00 SG/HK / 08:00 London (GMT) and 15:00 London (GMT) / 11:00 NY (EDT) with: • Sarah Hewin, Head, Macro Res...

  • Investors stay cautious on FX and rates - Updated Tue March 10, 2015

    Clients in the US and Europe struggle with FX volatility and zero yields • US dollar positioning fails to keep pace • Zero yields pose a challenge to investors • Sentiment is cautious towards China, positive towards India • We remain long the...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Embracing reforms - Updated Mon March 9, 2015

    • RGI rose 2.3% m/m in January, the fastest gain in eight months; index shows steady momentum • We see upside risk to USD-CNY in the near term; band widening is unlikely until at least H2-2015 • Shanghai FTZ spearheads capital account liberalisati...

  • 09-Mar – BoT to stay put on policy rate - Updated Sun March 8, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • China - Weak consumer confidence suggests further deflationary pressure • Philippines - Export growth seen rebounding modestly • China – Little support for band widening near-term • Market focus • We reiterate our call that...

  • Euro area: Brave new world - Updated Thu March 5, 2015

    Easy money, cheap energy and a competitive euro should boost growth; the ECB is bullish • We revise up 2015 euro-area GDP and see above-trend growth in 2016 as ECB QE gains traction • Diverging ECB-Fed policy will continue to weigh on the euro; we...

  • Thailand – Significant beneficiary of lower oil prices - Updated Thu March 5, 2015

    Falling global oil prices should boost growth, lower inflation, and lead to a current account surplus • However, we cut our 2015 GDP growth forecast to 5.1% to reflect delayed execution of public investment • We now expect the BoT to stay on hold ...

  • 05-Mar – US focus: From payrolls to pay rise - Updated Wed March 4, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Elevated TWD NEER to weigh on the TWD • South Korea – We expect a BoK rate cut in Q2-2015 • Malaysia – Exports likely slowed in January • Market focus • We see NFPs at 230,000 from 257,000 and unemployment at 5.6% ...

  • Canada – BoC in no rush to cut further - Updated Wed March 4, 2015

    The BoC left its overnight lending rate unchanged at 0.75%, as expected; the statement was neutral • Q4 GDP was resilient, and we raise slightly our 2015 growth forecast, but still see a shallow recession • We expect a 25bps rate cut on 15 April a...

  • 04-Mar – BNM policy stance supports receiving rates - Updated Tue March 3, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Retail and external trade likely contracted in October • UK – Bank of England will likely keep interest rates unchanged • Euro area – ECB will likely revise growth up and inflation down • Market focus • BNM is l...

  • 03-Mar – China’s political meetings in focus - Updated Mon March 2, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Latest IP data to show pick-up in economic activity • Brazil – Tightening mode for now • Canada – BoC took out insurance in Jan; may wait now, then cut again • Market focus • China’s all-important annual NPC an...

  • 02-Mar – Question for the RBA is not if, but when - Updated Sun March 1, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea − CPI inflation likely picked up on holiday shopping • Singapore − Subdued recovery in PMI expected • Taiwan − Export orders likely gained on strong tech demand • Market focus • RBA likely to keep rates unchange...



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31-Mar – BoJ’s Tankan likely to show a...

Top 3 data/events • UK – We expect the manufacturing PMI to have improved further • South Korea – CPI inflation was likely low; trade surplus likely increased • China – Manufacturing sector likely remained sluggish in March • Market focus • BoJ’s Tankan likely indicates improving...

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