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  • Cross-asset strategy – Post-payroll update - Updated Mon February 9, 2015

    US labour report represents an inflection point • The US diverges again from the rest of the world • Rotation remains key to the USD rally; stay long USD-JPY, targeting 126 • Keep an eye on gold...

  • 09-Feb – Euro area is turning the corner - Updated Sun February 8, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • China – Deflationary pressure justifies a looser policy stance • Philippines – Export growth likely remained robust in December • Malaysia – Industrial production likely slowed further in December 2014 • Market focus • Th...

  • FXTP update: Adjust stop higher on long USD-CAD - Updated Fri February 6, 2015

    The stabilisation in WTI oil prices represents a potential risk to our long USD-CAD trade • Stabilisation is not the same as an oil-price recovery; Canada is still affected by a terms-of-trade shock • We reaffirm our long USD-CAD trade, but raise ...

  • Cross-asset strategy – Ode to payrolls - Updated Fri February 6, 2015

    US economic data has been mixed of late • Markets look for payroll strength and improvement in wages • The USD remains supported by rate differentials... • … and improving sentiment in fixed income and equity markets...

  • 06-Feb – Malaysia shows resilience - Updated Thu February 5, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • India – New GDP series likely to show slower economic activity in FY15 • Japan – Current account balance was likely positive in December 2014 • Taiwan – Trade surplus was likely boosted by a lower (oil) import bill • Marke...

  • INR – Rajan, the RBI’s REER and official reserves - Updated Thu February 5, 2015

    RBI Governor Rajan has downplayed arguments that high REERs leave INR ‘grossly uncompetitive’ • RBI REERs remain on an upward trajectory, but historic averages offer little insight into INR fair value • Policy focus on REERs is a big improvement o...

  • Vietnam – What Vietnamese clients think - Updated Thu February 5, 2015

    Our Vietnam-based clients are the most bullish in the region, according to our poll • They are most concerned about the local economy, followed by the EU and China • The majority see upside risks to USD-VND in 2015, in line with our view...

  • 05-Feb – Oil prices make US payroll call slippery - Updated Wed February 4, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – RBA’s Statement on Monetary Policy likely to be bearish • Malaysia – Weaker MYR likely supported the trade balance • China – January trade data to benefit from holiday distortion • Market focus • We predict payr...

  • 04-Feb – More to come from the Tasman twins - Updated Tue February 3, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – A new base year for GDP • Philippines – Inflation likely eased further in January • UK – Bank of England will likely leave the Bank Rate unchanged • Market focus • RBA turns dovish from neutral, pointing to like...

  • Thailand – What Thai clients think - Updated Tue February 3, 2015

    Client sentiment in Bangkok is firmer in 2015 than 2014 • Europe is the biggest concern for 2015, while concerns about Thailand have eased • Thai clients maintain a bearish view on the Thai baht...

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27-Feb – India – Narrower deficit, higher...

Top 3 data/events • China – Manufacturing weighed down by Lunar New Year period • South Korea – Lower trade figures owing to Lunar New Year holiday • Euro area – February CPI likely to move further into negative territory • Market focus • We expect the government to adhere to the...

In Media

Technology: Reshaping the global economy

Digital technology is transforming the economy and society. Adoption, not invention, has the most economic impact. Technology can lift developed countries if they embrace change. New technologies offer more opportunities than challenges for emerging markets.