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  • 12-May – China’s growth was likely weak in April [Correction] - Updated Tue May 12, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – C/A surplus likely reached a record high in March • Euro area – We expect GDP to have been buoyant in Q1 • Ghana – Monetary policy committee likely to hold prime rate at 21% • Market focus • April growth indices were...

  • Sell SGD-PHP via 3M NDFs - Updated Tue May 12, 2015

    We expect the SGD-PHP cross to resume its weakening trend given strong macro divergence • We recommend selling SGD-PHP 3M NDFs; spot target: 32.00, spot stop-loss: 34.20 • We raise our short-term FX weighting on the PHP to Overweight; we remain Un...

  • Indonesia – Reality check - Updated Mon May 11, 2015

    We lower our real GDP growth forecasts to 4.9% for 2015 and 5.3% for 2016 • We expect BI to cut the BI rate by 25bps in Q2-2015, before hiking by 25bps each in Q3 and Q4 • We maintain our USD-IDR forecast at 13,700 by mid-2015 and 13,500 by end-20...

  • 11-May – BoE to stay on course, IR in focus - Updated Sun May 10, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • India – April inflation likely dipped below 5%; March IIP was likely tepid • Philippines – Export growth likely fell for a fourth consecutive month • Asian central banks – Focus is again on trade-weighted exchange rate • M...

  • China cuts policy rate by 25bps - Updated Sun May 10, 2015

    Event • The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a broad-based policy rate cut on 10 May. It cut the deposit and lending rates by 25bps and lifted the deposit-rate ceiling to 1.5x the benchmark deposit rate from 1.3x, effective on 11 May. The on...

  • UK election results – Initial thoughts - Updated Fri May 8, 2015

    Event: With 539 constituencies having declared, the Conservative Party has significantly outperformed, winning 246 seats and gaining 19 seats in these constituencies compared with the 2010 election. This net gain would imply 325 seats if the Conserv...

  • 08-May – Greece: Low breakthrough prospects - Updated Thu May 7, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • India –The SIGMA signal is bearish; we remain Positive on IGBs • Sri Lanka – CBSL is likely to keep rates on hold in May • China – Inflation likely remained subdued in April • Market focus • Expectations for a breakthrough ...

  • Thailand – Faltering exports dim growth outlook - Updated Thu May 7, 2015

    We lower our 2015 GDP growth forecast to 4.1% to reflect weaker-than-expected exports and consumption • BoT may take further steps to support the export sector • We maintain our Positive outlook on THB bonds; we recommend holding long 5Y THB bonds...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Silver linings - Updated Thu May 7, 2015

    RGI fell in March, the first time since Oct-2012, on a weak CNY, lower deposits and less Dim Sum issuance • Since March, however, CNY has stabilised, southbound flows have risen and CNH liquidity has improved • Renminbi trade settlement remains s...

  • 07-May – US payrolls likely soldiered on - Updated Wed May 6, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • China – April trade data probably will show a modest export recovery • UK – We expect the BoE to keep the bank rate unchanged • Germany – Industrial production likely ticked up in March • Market focus • We see April payroll...



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Trade idea

28-May – US surprise indices may have...

Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – Inflation likely accelerated in May • FX – We raise USD-LKR and lower USD-BDT forecasts • Japan – Core inflation likely remained 0%; IP may have edged up • Market focus • Second Q1 GDP print may be a painful reminder of data weakness • We still expect a...

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