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  • 16-Jan – The SNB, RBI and policy credibility - Updated Thu January 15, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Revised IP likely to show a smaller m/m drop • India – RBI surprised with an inter-meeting rate cut • US – Not immune to global disinflationary trends as CPI is set to drop • Market focus • SNB step to scrap EUR-CHF...

  • SNB concedes defeat in the currency war - Updated Thu January 15, 2015

    SNB’s suspension of the EUR-CHF floor can be seen as pre-emptive ahead of ECB QE • SNB’s continued FX intervention at the margins should rule out levels below 0.95 • Ironically, the SNB’s withdrawal from the currency cap raises the prospect of sus...

  • Buy MXN-CLP - Updated Thu January 15, 2015

    • Copper prices have fallen sharply this week, revealing a relative-value opportunity in Latam FX • Relative fundamentals and positioning are bullish MXN-CLP; we revise USD-CLP forecasts higher • We recommend buying MXN-CLP via 3M forward/NDF outr...

  • India – RBI delivers an inter-meeting rate cut - Updated Thu January 15, 2015

    Event – The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) delivered a 25bps rate cut today, cutting the repo rate to 7.75% and the reverse repo rate to 6.75%, before its scheduled policy meeting on 3 February. A significant slowdown in inflation momentum (December CP...

  • Take profits on short EUR-USD and short GBP-USD - Updated Thu January 15, 2015

    We use the early-year weakness in EUR-USD and GBP-USD to take profits • These actions represent tactical risk management decisions, not a change in view • We retain our medium-term forecasts for lower EUR-USD and GBP-USD...

  • 15-Jan – 2015 Asian rates outlook - Updated Wed January 14, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Petrochemicals exports likely weighed on NODX in December • Chile – The BCCh will likely stay on hold • Commodities – Demand uncertainties weigh heavily on copper • Market focus • Asian local-currency bond marke...

  • 14-Jan – Korea: All eyes on BoK policy direction - Updated Tue January 13, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – We expect the BI rate to be unchanged in January • Japan – Machinery orders likely rebounded; PPI likely slowed further • Australia – Job creation was likely muted in December • Market focus • We expect the BoK ...

  • 13-Jan – The EU Court and QE implications - Updated Mon January 12, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Remittance growth was likely strong in November • Euro area – Industrial production likely registered modest growth • US – December retail sales data: Beware of the price-effect • Market focus • The ECJ’s in...

  • India – Looking ahead to 2015 - Updated Mon January 12, 2015

    We expect a gradual GDP recovery in FY16; lower inflation to pave the way for 75bps of repo rate cuts • Any deviation from the stated fiscal consolidation path would pose a risk to our current forecasts • We expect most of the government’s recentl...

  • 12-Jan – Big caveat for December’s US job data - Updated Sun January 11, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • China − Trade performance likely remained weak in December • Japan – C/A surplus likely shrank; better Econ Survey results • UK – CPI headline inflation likely eased on lower energy prices • Market focus • US non-farm pay...

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27-Feb – India – Narrower deficit, higher...

Top 3 data/events • China – Manufacturing weighed down by Lunar New Year period • South Korea – Lower trade figures owing to Lunar New Year holiday • Euro area – February CPI likely to move further into negative territory • Market focus • We expect the government to adhere to the...

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Technology: Reshaping the global economy

Digital technology is transforming the economy and society. Adoption, not invention, has the most economic impact. Technology can lift developed countries if they embrace change. New technologies offer more opportunities than challenges for emerging markets.