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  • 16-Jan – The SNB, RBI and policy credibility - Updated Thu January 15, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Revised IP likely to show a smaller m/m drop • India – RBI surprised with an inter-meeting rate cut • US – Not immune to global disinflationary trends as CPI is set to drop • Market focus • SNB step to scrap EUR-CHF...

  • SNB concedes defeat in the currency war - Updated Thu January 15, 2015

    SNB’s suspension of the EUR-CHF floor can be seen as pre-emptive ahead of ECB QE • SNB’s continued FX intervention at the margins should rule out levels below 0.95 • Ironically, the SNB’s withdrawal from the currency cap raises the prospect of sus...

  • Buy MXN-CLP - Updated Thu January 15, 2015

    • Copper prices have fallen sharply this week, revealing a relative-value opportunity in Latam FX • Relative fundamentals and positioning are bullish MXN-CLP; we revise USD-CLP forecasts higher • We recommend buying MXN-CLP via 3M forward/NDF outr...

  • India – RBI delivers an inter-meeting rate cut - Updated Thu January 15, 2015

    Event – The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) delivered a 25bps rate cut today, cutting the repo rate to 7.75% and the reverse repo rate to 6.75%, before its scheduled policy meeting on 3 February. A significant slowdown in inflation momentum (December CP...

  • Take profits on short EUR-USD and short GBP-USD - Updated Thu January 15, 2015

    We use the early-year weakness in EUR-USD and GBP-USD to take profits • These actions represent tactical risk management decisions, not a change in view • We retain our medium-term forecasts for lower EUR-USD and GBP-USD...

  • 15-Jan – 2015 Asian rates outlook - Updated Wed January 14, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Petrochemicals exports likely weighed on NODX in December • Chile – The BCCh will likely stay on hold • Commodities – Demand uncertainties weigh heavily on copper • Market focus • Asian local-currency bond marke...

  • 14-Jan – Korea: All eyes on BoK policy direction - Updated Tue January 13, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – We expect the BI rate to be unchanged in January • Japan – Machinery orders likely rebounded; PPI likely slowed further • Australia – Job creation was likely muted in December • Market focus • We expect the BoK ...

  • 13-Jan – The EU Court and QE implications - Updated Mon January 12, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Remittance growth was likely strong in November • Euro area – Industrial production likely registered modest growth • US – December retail sales data: Beware of the price-effect • Market focus • The ECJ’s in...

  • India – Looking ahead to 2015 - Updated Mon January 12, 2015

    We expect a gradual GDP recovery in FY16; lower inflation to pave the way for 75bps of repo rate cuts • Any deviation from the stated fiscal consolidation path would pose a risk to our current forecasts • We expect most of the government’s recentl...

  • 12-Jan – Big caveat for December’s US job data - Updated Sun January 11, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • China − Trade performance likely remained weak in December • Japan – C/A surplus likely shrank; better Econ Survey results • UK – CPI headline inflation likely eased on lower energy prices • Market focus • US non-farm pay...



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27-Feb – India – Narrower deficit, higher...

Top 3 data/events • China – Manufacturing weighed down by Lunar New Year period • South Korea – Lower trade figures owing to Lunar New Year holiday • Euro area – February CPI likely to move further into negative territory • Market focus • We expect the government to adhere to the...

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