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  • Offshore Renminbi – Pausing before a likely leap - Updated Wed April 8, 2015

    Our RGI rose 0.14% m/m in February on lower deposits in Hong Kong and slower cross-border flows • Likely inclusion of the Renminbi in the IMF’s SDR basket could lead to faster internationalisation • The launch of China’s deposit insurance scheme i...

  • 08-Apr – BoK will likely keep the base rate on hold - Updated Tue April 7, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • UK – We expect the BoE to keep the Bank Rate unchanged • Germany – Industrial production likely rose in February • US – Trilogy of Yellen-Fischer-Dudley speeches make minutes look old • Market focus • BoK will likely lower ...

  • UK – Going to the polls - Updated Tue April 7, 2015

    Opinion polls point to a high chance of a minority government after the 7 May general election • 2010’s hung parliament saw the largest decline in GBP of any election since 1979 • Political uncertainty and the market’s view that UK rates are on ho...

  • 07-Apr – BoJ is likely to ease further in April - Updated Mon April 6, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • India – The SIGMA signal is bearish; we remain Positive on IGBs • Taiwan – Exports likely grew in March; inflation may have declined • Philippines – Export growth likely rebounded modestly in February • Market focus • Rece...

  • Indian importers – Buy USD-INR funded call spreads - Updated Thu April 2, 2015

    We see upside risks to USD-INR in the short term ahead of a likely first Fed rate hike in Q3 • Strong inflows in Q1 have resulted in major positioning risk, while Q2 seasonals are less favourable • RBI is likely to continue intervening to limit ex...

  • 02-Apr – India – A pause before easing - Updated Wed April 1, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – RBA likely to maintain cash rate at 2.25% in a close call • Malaysia – We expect lacklustre export growth for February • Philippines – Inflation likely eased in March • Market focus • RBI likely to keep repo rat...

  • EM-21: Rising FX reserves and a rising USD [Correction] - Updated Wed April 1, 2015

    This supersedes the version dated 1 April 2015. Changes China’s FX reserves valuation adjustment. Our EM-21 Reserve Monitor shows that central bank reserves actually increased again in February Asia continues to accumulate reserves at a quickening...

  • Sell USD-CNH 3Mx12M DF - Updated Wed April 1, 2015

    We recommend selling USD-CNH 3Mx12M outright in the FX Trading Portfolio We expect stability in USD-CNY near-term as authorities calm depreciation worries ahead of IMF meeting We recommend being Neutral on the CNY against the USD in AXJ regional F...

  • 01-Apr – US – The payroll/GDP debate - Updated Tue March 31, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – We expect the PMI to have remained weak • Turkey – Headline CPI likely eased in March • FX – Our forecasts for 2015 and 2016 • Market focus • We look for a moderation in payroll growth: our forecast is 230,000 ...

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22-May – Selectively receive EM Asia rates

Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Prices may have continued to fall in April • Taiwan – We forecast slower IP growth in April on weak export sales • Japan – Trade balance likely turned negative again in April • Market focus • EM/DM yield spread was range-bound as foreign investors became...

In Media

Technology: Reshaping the global economy

Digital technology is transforming the economy and society. Adoption, not invention, has the most economic impact. Technology can lift developed countries if they embrace change. New technologies offer more opportunities than challenges for emerging markets.