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  • UK – Bullish BoE looks through oil-driven deflation - Updated Thu February 12, 2015

    The BoE sees inflation above target by 2017 as wage pressures build, despite near-term deflation risks • We lower our 2015 inflation forecast, but see medium-term inflation risks triggering a rate hike in Q4-2015 • With a hung parliament increas...

  • Dissecting India’s trade dynamics - Updated Thu February 12, 2015

    USD-INR, industrial production, oil prices and export growth are the main drivers of Indian imports; REER is less important • Global growth is the main driver of Indian exports, while FX changes have little impact • Structurally supportive factors...

  • China – Further monetary easing likely in H1-2015 - Updated Thu February 12, 2015

    We expect the PBoC to ease monetary policy further in an effort to stabilise growth Weak credit demand, high real interest rates and tight liquidity call for more policy easing, in our view We now expect two additional RRR cuts of 50bps each and t...

  • United States – The Fed and 2% inflation targeting - Updated Wed February 11, 2015

    A pick-up in core inflation from current low levels is key to the timing of the first rate hike, in our view • We still expect the first hike in September after core PCE inflation bottoms this summer • The Fed may be underestimating the pass-throu...

  • India – Initial thoughts on the impending new-look CPI - Updated Wed February 11, 2015

    • India will release revamped CPI on 12 February with a new base and revised weights • Based on revised weights, CPI inflation could be 30bps higher, contrary to the perception of 5bps higher • Our January CPI inflation forecast of 5.6% based on...

  • Turkey – Blurred lines - Updated Wed February 11, 2015

    • Political intervention in state institutions is reshaping Turkey • The most visible flashpoint is central bank independence, driving the TRY to historical lows • CBRT likely to continue to navigate between political pressures while monitoring ex...

  • Taiwan – Upbeat on Q1 growth despite slow Q4 - Updated Wed February 11, 2015

    Preliminary Q4 GDP growth slowed y/y; we remain upbeat on Q1 growth, however • Inflation risk is receding due to falling oil prices; we expect policy rate to stay on hold at 1.875% in March • TWD FX: We recommend Underweight short- and medium-te...

  • 11-Feb – Greece and the walk from ‘no’ to ‘yes’ - Updated Tue February 10, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – We see further PPI slowdown; a pick-up in machinery orders • India – CPI likely rose in January; we await revised CPI series • UK – Inflation Report to be scrutinised for rate-hike hints • Market focus • Greece will...

  • India – Statistical boost to GDP to continue in FY16 - Updated Tue February 10, 2015

    • India’s revised GDP series indicates that the economy has recovered rapidly in the past two years • However, high-frequency activity indicators show significant slack • Sharp fall in inflation rather than improvement in volume growth likely led ...

  • 10-Feb – BSP is in no rush to change policy stance - Updated Mon February 9, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – We expect Q4 GDP to have slowed versus previous quarters • Singapore – Take profit on pay 2Y IRS vs 2Y SGS • Australia – We expect muted job creation for January • Market focus • We expect the BSP to keep its pol...

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27-Feb – India – Narrower deficit, higher...

Top 3 data/events • China – Manufacturing weighed down by Lunar New Year period • South Korea – Lower trade figures owing to Lunar New Year holiday • Euro area – February CPI likely to move further into negative territory • Market focus • We expect the government to adhere to the...

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