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  • 04-Apr – March US NFPs: Gradual thawing - Updated Thu April 3, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • INR – RBI’s Rajan signals INR not far from ‘fair value’ • Taiwan – Export gains; inflation accelerates • Germany – Cooling industrial production data reflect stability • Market focus • We see March payrolls below the 20...

  • ECB moves closer to pulling the trigger - Updated Thu April 3, 2014

    The ECB has lowered the bar for further easing, on concerns that inflation could stay too low for too long • Our inflation forecasts suggest that policy can stay on hold in 2014-15; but it has become a close call • Inflation likely to pick up in ...

  • 03-Apr – Indonesia continues to outperform EMs - Updated Wed April 2, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Exports likely rose sharply on a y/y basis in February • Philippines – Inflation likely remained on an uptrend • Germany – February factory orders expected to have risen, but only just • Market focus • Indonesia ...

  • Singapore – MAS to maintain the status quo - Updated Wed April 2, 2014

    We expect the MAS to maintain its current monetary policy stance in April • Current inflation levels are benign, although upside risks to core inflation remain • SGD NEER to strengthen ahead of MPS; enter SGD IRS 1Y/3Y/10Y butterfly, SGD IRS 3Y/1...

  • 02-Apr – Deflating ECB rate-cut expectations - Updated Tue April 1, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – We forecast continued strength in retail and external trade • Ghana – The Bank of Ghana likely to keep prime rate on hold at 18% • Brazil – COPOM expected to hike once more • Market focus • The ECB will likely c...

  • India – RBI pauses for clarity - Updated Tue April 1, 2014

    • RBI keeps policy rates unchanged with a cautious stance as uncertainty looms on inflation • A sustained fall in CPI inflation below 7% and core inflation approaching 7% could prompt a rate cut • We expect a long pause in policy rates, as CPI ...

  • 01-Apr – UST volatility and EM catch-up - Updated Mon March 31, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – We expect the PMI to remain above the 50 threshold • Europe – New offshore Renminbi centres set to get a boost • US – ISM data is likely to thaw gradually • Market focus • The sharp fall in UST implied volatili...

  • Turkey – AKP strengthens its hold - Updated Mon March 31, 2014

    AKP makes a strong showing in local elections, garnering above 45% of the national vote • Erdogan may now announce his candidacy for the August presidential election • We think that risks from the political news cycle will remain, as the country’s...

  • Global Focus conference call – The world in transition - Updated Sun March 30, 2014

    • You are cordially invited to join us for an exclusive conference call presentation (with Q&A) with: • Marios Maratheftis, Global Head, Macro Research • David Mann, Regional Head of Research, Asia • Daniel Tenengauzer, Regional Head of Re...

  • 31-Mar – Reserve Bank of India likely to stay on hold - Updated Sun March 30, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – PMI may show further moderation • South Korea – CPI inflation expected to be benign, even with recovery • Australia – RBA likely to maintain a ‘period of stability’ in rates • Market focus • Sharp correction in in...

  • Global Research: Top Weekly Reads: 21 – 27 March 2014 - Updated Fri March 28, 2014

    • The following reports received the most reads from external clients, as per anonymous readership data, for the period from 21 to 27 March 2014. They are listed in descending order of most reads: • Global Focus - The world in transition • 21-Mar ...

  • Philippines – BSP to gradually normalise policy - Updated Fri March 28, 2014

    • BSP raises reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 1ppt to 19%, starting its tightening cycle • We expect the RRR to be raised by another 1ppt at each of the two policy meetings in Q2-2014 • BSP is concerned about excess liquidity in the financial s...

  • Global Focus – The world in transition - Updated Fri March 28, 2014

    • Please note corrected time • You are cordially invited to join us for an exclusive conference call presentation (with Q&A) with: • Marios Maratheftis, Global Head, Macro Research • David Mann, Regional Head of Research, Asia • Daniel Te...

  • Global Focus – The world in transition - Updated Thu March 27, 2014

    • You are cordially invited to join us for an exclusive conference call presentation (with Q&A) with: • Marios Maratheftis, Global Head, Macro Research • David Mann, Regional Head of Research, Asia • Daniel Tenengauzer, Regional Head of Resea...

  • 28-Mar – Time to embrace the sales-tax hike - Updated Thu March 27, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Euro area – Downward price pressures pose a conundrum for the ECB • US – February core PCE inflation to remain stable at 1.1% y/y • Colombia – We reiterate our Overweight FX rating on the COP • Market focus • Tankan survey ...

  • 27-Mar – Commodities volatility set to increase - Updated Wed March 26, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Southeast Asian FX – All the good news is already in the price • Vietnam – Q1 GDP likely to show economic growth is on track • Euro area – Businesses have a more sceptical outlook than consumers • Market focus • Commodities...

  • China – Real estate’s tough year - Updated Wed March 26, 2014

    We expect weaker prices, higher inventory levels and more developer insolvencies in 2014 • Trust financing is getting tighter, but overall government policy may be set to loosen in April • The situation in smaller cities is likely to be most serio...

  • 26-Mar – In the steady hands of the CBC - Updated Tue March 25, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Bad weather likely weighed on February data • Philippines – BSP is likely to keep policy unchanged in March • South Africa – MPC seen on hold at March meeting; risks are building • Market focus • Expect the CBC to k...

  • Nigeria – Time to adjust the FX band - Updated Mon March 24, 2014

    Some stability has returned to the FX market recently • However, this is largely because of CBN intervention • FX reserves are down almost 12% since the January MPC meeting • We believe the CBN will adjust the NGN FX band at the March MPC meeting...

  • 25-Mar – The trans-Tasman twist - Updated Mon March 24, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – IP growth was likely strong in February • Euro area – US seeking a united front with EU against Russia • US – Corporate investment is still not in the data • Market focus • The NZ economy has been solid in recen...



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17-Apr – China: Growth momentum slowed in Q1

Top 3 data/events • Japan – Trade deficit likely remained given import re-acceleration • Taiwan – Overseas demand likely supported export orders • US – Yellen sticks to her script in NY speech • Market focus • China’s Q1 GDP slowed to 7.4% y/y as credit and housing sales decelerated...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.