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  • 16-Mar – BoJ will likely move in April not March - Updated Sun March 15, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore - We expect modest NODX growth in January-February • Turkey – CBRT will likely keep rates unchanged • South Africa – C/A deficit to highlight ongoing vulnerability • Market focus • We expect no BoJ easing at the 16...

  • Asia data previews – 13-20 March 2015 - Updated Fri March 13, 2015

    • We think BI will maintain an easing bias amid low inflation and global central bank easing • Singapore’s February NODX was likely affected by Lunar New Year data distortions • We expect a BoJ move in April not March ...

  • Global Research: Top Weekly Reads – 6 – 12 March 2015 - Updated Fri March 13, 2015

    The following reports received the most reads from external clients, as per anonymous readership data, for the period from 6 to 12 March 2015. They are listed in descending order of most reads: Kaisa debt restructuring – To agree or not to agree? ...

  • 13-Mar – BI likely to cut and signal a long pause - Updated Thu March 12, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – Trade surplus likely increased in February • India – WPI likely moved lower in February • Philippines – Remittance growth likely slowed in January • Market focus • We expect BI to cut the BI rate and the FASBI r...

  • Korea – Which came first, the BoK or the market? - Updated Thu March 12, 2015

    • BoK cuts the base rate to a record-low 1.75%, against consensus • We expect no further easing this year • We recommend Underweight short-term FX weighting on the KRW and Neutral on KTB duration ...

  • Bank of Korea cuts base rate 25bps - Updated Thu March 12, 2015

    Event – The Bank of Korea (BoK) surprised the market today by cutting the base rate by 25bps to 1.75%, a record low – even lower than the level reached during the global financial crisis in 2009. The move was against the market consensus view of no ...

  • 12-Mar – TRY: The party’s over - Updated Wed March 11, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Switzerland – FX irony • Singapore – Retail sales likely remained sluggish in January • United States – Oil boost still not in the spending data • Market focus • Political interference in monetary policy has been in focus ...

  • India – The best is ahead for the BoP in Q4-FY15 - Updated Wed March 11, 2015

    Q3-FY15 C/A deficit was narrower than we had expected; BoP surplus was larger We forecast a C/A surplus in Q4-FY15 for the first time since 2007 We lower our FY15 C/A deficit forecast to 0.9% of GDP from 1.5%, raise BoP surplus forecast to USD 53....

  • Thailand – BoT unexpectedly cuts policy rate - Updated Wed March 11, 2015

    Event The Bank of Thailand (BoT) cut its policy rate by 25bps to 1.75% at today’s policy meeting. This was against our expectation that it would keep the rate on hold. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 4-3 to reduce the rate and said the mo...

  • Singapore – We expect another MAS move in April - Updated Wed March 11, 2015

    We expect the MAS to follow up on January’s surprise easing by re-centring the band 2% lower • We examine what we think are the six most plausible MAS decision scenarios • FX: Maintain Underweight FX weighting on the SGD; remain short SGD-THB v...



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Trade idea

01-Apr – US – The payroll/GDP debate

Top 3 data/events • Singapore – We expect the PMI to have remained weak • Turkey – Headline CPI likely eased in March • FX – Our forecasts for 2015 and 2016 • Market focus • We look for a moderation in payroll growth: our forecast is 230,000 • Wage growth remains key for the timing of...

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