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  • 16-Feb – Singapore budget to address needs ahead - Updated Sun February 15, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – BoK likely to keep the policy rate on hold • Indonesia – We expect BI to keep rates unchanged • UK – CPI likely to continue its downward trend • Market focus • We expect Singapore’s 2015 budget to tackle econo...

  • India – Lower inflation paves the way for rate cuts - Updated Fri February 13, 2015

    The revised CPI, with a 2012 base, shows that inflationary pressure was lower than initially suggested • We revise our FY16 CPI inflation forecast to 5.4% from 5.8%; we expect a 75bps repo rate cut • We remain Positive on IGBs; buy 10Y IGBs (targ...

  • Global Research: Top Weekly Reads – 6 – 12 February 2015 - Updated Fri February 13, 2015

    The following reports received the most reads from external clients, as per anonymous readership data, for the period from 6 to 12 February 2015. They are listed in descending order of most reads: Weekly fund flows Economics Weekly – 06-Feb – Luna...

  • Asia data previews – 13-20 February 2015 - Updated Fri February 13, 2015

    Major Asian markets will be closed late next week for the Lunar New Year holidays We expect better Q4-2014 GDP results from Japan, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand than in Q3 Bank Indonesia and Bank of Korea are likely to leave policy rates unchanged...

  • 13-Feb – Growth, inflation and the BoJ - Updated Thu February 12, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • China – SLF expansion to ease seasonal liquidity volatility • India – January trade deficit seen narrowing further on low oil imports • Philippines – Remittances to be buoyed by improving US labour market • Market focus • J...

  • Brazil – Keeping the lights on [Correction] - Updated Thu February 12, 2015

    This supersedes the version dated 12 February 2015. Page 1, corrects • Rising risks of mandatory electricity rationing could have severe implications on the economy • Even without rationing, we now expect zero economic growth in 2015 • If rationi...

  • UK – Bullish BoE looks through oil-driven deflation - Updated Thu February 12, 2015

    The BoE sees inflation above target by 2017 as wage pressures build, despite near-term deflation risks • We lower our 2015 inflation forecast, but see medium-term inflation risks triggering a rate hike in Q4-2015 • With a hung parliament increas...

  • Dissecting India’s trade dynamics - Updated Thu February 12, 2015

    USD-INR, industrial production, oil prices and export growth are the main drivers of Indian imports; REER is less important • Global growth is the main driver of Indian exports, while FX changes have little impact • Structurally supportive factors...

  • China – Further monetary easing likely in H1-2015 - Updated Thu February 12, 2015

    We expect the PBoC to ease monetary policy further in an effort to stabilise growth Weak credit demand, high real interest rates and tight liquidity call for more policy easing, in our view We now expect two additional RRR cuts of 50bps each and t...

  • United States – The Fed and 2% inflation targeting - Updated Wed February 11, 2015

    A pick-up in core inflation from current low levels is key to the timing of the first rate hike, in our view • We still expect the first hike in September after core PCE inflation bottoms this summer • The Fed may be underestimating the pass-throu...

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05-Mar – US focus: From payrolls to pay rise

Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Elevated TWD NEER to weigh on the TWD • South Korea – We expect a BoK rate cut in Q2-2015 • Malaysia – Exports likely slowed in January • Market focus • We see NFPs at 230,000 from 257,000 and unemployment at 5.6% • The Fed may remove ‘patient’ from its...

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