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  • India leverage uncovered - Updated Thu May 7, 2015

    Our analysis of BSE 500 firms indicates balance-sheet stress amid early signs of deleveraging • These companies need to raise c.USD 80-90bn of equity in FY16-18 to deleverage fully • We think growth expectations (not lowering interest rates) will ...

  • 07-May – US payrolls likely soldiered on - Updated Wed May 6, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • China – April trade data probably will show a modest export recovery • UK – We expect the BoE to keep the bank rate unchanged • Germany – Industrial production likely ticked up in March • Market focus • We see April payroll...

  • UK election: Initial thoughts - Updated Wed May 6, 2015

    You are cordially invited to join us for an exclusive conference call presentation on Friday 8 May 2015 with 2 sessions: (1) Asia – 16:00 SG/HK (08:00 GMT) and (2) New York – 10:00AM (14:00 GMT) with: • Sarah Hewin, Chief Economist, Europe (Host, s...

  • PRD’s pain, China and ASEAN’s gain - Updated Tue May 5, 2015

    Companies in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) – China’s leading manufacturing hub – still face plenty of challenges, according to our sixth annual survey of manufacturers in the region. A labour shortage persists, and wages are likely to rise 8.4% this y...

  • 05-May – BNM is likely to keep rates on hold - Updated Mon May 4, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • BoJ minutes to shed light on Kiuchi’s proposal • New Zealand – Unemployment rate likely fell to 5.5% • US – Before payrolls, markets likely to listen carefully to Chair Yellen • Market focus • BNM is likely to keep the poli...

  • China – Far from unconventional policies - Updated Mon May 4, 2015

    With growth trending down, we expect a four-pronged policy response to mitigate downside risk • Talk of QE and LTRO seems far-fetched; CNY devaluation does not appear to be an option • We call for a 25bps rate cut by end-June, followed by a total ...

  • Hong Kong – SME sentiment turns cautious again - Updated Mon May 4, 2015

    Our SME sentiment tracker dips back into pessimistic territory in Q2 amid weaker sales expectations • Record-high hiring expectations are a lone bright spot; investment expectations weakest since Q4-2012 • External headwinds continue to weigh on m...

  • Indian clients see opportunities and risks - Updated Mon May 4, 2015

    Onshore clients are optimistic on India’s long-term prospects for growth and market performance • Short-term caution reflects concerns over exogenous risks and the impact on external capital • Locals fear that global investors may lose patience wi...

  • China – Not out of the woods yet - Updated Mon May 4, 2015

    April PMI suggests weak demand and further deceleration in economic activity • Money growth may have rebounded on the RRR cuts and a sizeable trade surplus • Inflation likely edged up but remained subdued, leaving room for more policy easing...

  • 04-May – Not too early or late, just right for RBA - Updated Sun May 3, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – Real GDP growth likely remained weak in Q1-2015 • Philippines – Inflation may moderate further on lower food inflation • US – Services to do most of heavy lifting in Q2 • Market focus • RBA will likely ease agai...



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Trade idea

22-May – Selectively receive EM Asia rates

Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Prices may have continued to fall in April • Taiwan – We forecast slower IP growth in April on weak export sales • Japan – Trade balance likely turned negative again in April • Market focus • EM/DM yield spread was range-bound as foreign investors became...

In Media

Technology: Reshaping the global economy

Digital technology is transforming the economy and society. Adoption, not invention, has the most economic impact. Technology can lift developed countries if they embrace change. New technologies offer more opportunities than challenges for emerging markets.