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  • Canada – BoC in no rush to cut further - Updated Wed March 4, 2015

    The BoC left its overnight lending rate unchanged at 0.75%, as expected; the statement was neutral • Q4 GDP was resilient, and we raise slightly our 2015 growth forecast, but still see a shallow recession • We expect a 25bps rate cut on 15 April a...

  • India – More rate cuts to come, but not soon - Updated Wed March 4, 2015

    RBI surprises by delivering another inter-meeting repo rate cut to 7.50% We no longer expect a rate cut at the April policy meeting, as additional information is unlikely by then We now expect the next cuts in June and August; inter-meeting action...

  • South Korea – We expect a rate cut in Q2-2015 - Updated Wed March 4, 2015

    Policy makers have indicated a rate cut is not imminent; BoK likely to keep rates on hold on 12 March Rate-cut pressure is building on negative data trend and easing by major central banks We now expect a rate cut in Q2-2015, versus our previous f...

  • India – RBI delivers another inter-meeting rate cut - Updated Wed March 4, 2015

    Event The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) surprised by delivering another inter-meeting repo rate cut of 25bps to 7.50%. It delivered the previous rate cut in January (also an inter-meeting move), and kept rates on hold at its scheduled policy meeting ...

  • 04-Mar – BNM policy stance supports receiving rates - Updated Tue March 3, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Retail and external trade likely contracted in October • UK – Bank of England will likely keep interest rates unchanged • Euro area – ECB will likely revise growth up and inflation down • Market focus • BNM is l...

  • Korea – Corporate tax unlikely to be a game changer - Updated Tue March 3, 2015

    MoSF finalises details of the tax on corporate profits (effective 6 March 2015), despite resistance • We expect the new law to raise dividend payouts, have a limited impact on investment and wages • We think the household sector will benefit only ...

  • Australia – RBA leaves cash rate unchanged at 2.25% - Updated Tue March 3, 2015

    Event The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised the market and left the policy cash rate unchanged at 2.25% at its monetary policy meeting on 3 March. The decision was in line with our forecast of no change. The market had priced in a 61% proba...

  • 03-Mar – China’s political meetings in focus - Updated Mon March 2, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Latest IP data to show pick-up in economic activity • Brazil – Tightening mode for now • Canada – BoC took out insurance in Jan; may wait now, then cut again • Market focus • China’s all-important annual NPC an...

  • Commonwealth trade unbundled - Updated Mon March 2, 2015

    Trade between Commonwealth countries fell from 11% of global exports in 1950 to about 1.9% in 1990 The share is rising again and is now 2.3%; overall Commonwealth exports are 14% of world trade The rapid growth of many emerging Commonwealth countr...

  • 02-Mar – Question for the RBA is not if, but when - Updated Sun March 1, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea − CPI inflation likely picked up on holiday shopping • Singapore − Subdued recovery in PMI expected • Taiwan − Export orders likely gained on strong tech demand • Market focus • RBA likely to keep rates unchange...

  • Asia data previews – 27 Feb – 6 Mar 2015 - Updated Fri February 27, 2015

    • We expect the RBA and BNM to keep policy rates on hold; RBA may be a close call • Indonesia, Thailand, South Korea and the Philippines to release inflation data, with differing expectations • We see still-weak export growth in South Korea and Ma...

  • Global Research: Top Weekly Reads – 20 – 26 February 2015 - Updated Fri February 27, 2015

    The following reports received the most reads from external clients, as per anonymous readership data, for the period from 20 to 26 February 2015. They are listed in descending order of most reads: CDI new issue - Moderate spread compression likely...

  • Nigeria – February BSI hits a series low - Updated Fri February 27, 2015

    February BSI falls to a series low of 57.9 from 58.8 in January • Near-term political uncertainty and softer oil prices continue to weigh on the indicator • Falls in production and supplier delivery times indicate a slowdown in activity...

  • Kenya – February BSI: Losing momentum - Updated Fri February 27, 2015

    Kenya’s BSI continued its correction in February • February BSI fell to a series low of 47.0, from 58.5 in January • Three-month BSI average is still above 50, indicating expansion...

  • China – SME index distorted by holiday effect - Updated Fri February 27, 2015

    The SME index fell modestly to 55.6 in February from 56.6 in January; expectations index improved Real activity weakened during the Lunar New Year holiday; job market deteriorated further Credit availability remains tight for SMEs; financing costs...

  • 27-Feb – India – Narrower deficit, higher investment - Updated Thu February 26, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • China – Manufacturing weighed down by Lunar New Year period • South Korea – Lower trade figures owing to Lunar New Year holiday • Euro area – February CPI likely to move further into negative territory • Market focus • We ...

  • Hits and misses of the Indian budget - Updated Thu February 26, 2015

    • India will present the Union Budget on February 28. To analyse the budget and its market impact, we will hold two conference calls on Monday 02 March (05:00 GMT/10:30 AM Mumbai time and 14:00 GMT/09:00 AM New York time) with: Session 1: • Sami...

  • Asia – What Asian clients think - Updated Thu February 26, 2015

    • We bring together the results of all our client surveys in Q1-2015 on growth, risks and FX views • Vietnam has the largest share of optimists on growth, while Malaysia has the most pessimists • Asian clients are more bearish on their currencies ...

  • 25-Feb – CNY’s sheepish start to the Year of the Goat - Updated Tue February 24, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – January exports probably stayed soft • Kenya – CBK expected to keep rates on hold, despite deflation • Japan – Key January data to show recovery; inflation likely slowed • Market focus • China’s onshore FX marke...

  • Sri Lanka – No surprises from the CBSL - Updated Tue February 24, 2015

    • The CBSL maintains the status quo on policy rates at its February meeting • While January inflation of 3.2% y/y was higher than our estimates, we expect inflation to remain benign • Private credit growth improved for the sixth straight month to ...



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31-Mar – BoJ’s Tankan likely to show a...

Top 3 data/events • UK – We expect the manufacturing PMI to have improved further • South Korea – CPI inflation was likely low; trade surplus likely increased • China – Manufacturing sector likely remained sluggish in March • Market focus • BoJ’s Tankan likely indicates improving...

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