We are bullish on copper prices, forecasting USD 6,675/t in Q4-2015 and 7,250/t in 2016
• Standard Chartered MFCI for Chile points to higher growth, suggesting BCCh will hike from Q4
• We revise our short-term FX weighting on the CLP to Overweigh...
Markets are largely shrugging aside the risks of a Greek default and ‘Grexit’
• Euro area has had a strong start to 2015, but uncertainty has risen, threatening to slow the recovery
• A Greek deal needs to be reached this month if a ‘Grexit’-relat...
Inflation likely rose slightly in China, Indonesia, and Taiwan, but fell slightly in the Philippines
• We expect the RBA to cut the policy rate by 25bps, and BNM to maintain it
• Trade data for China, Malaysia, and Taiwan likely improved...
Top 3 data/events
• Indonesia – We expect inflation to have picked up slightly in April
• Singapore – PMI likely contracted for a fifth consecutive month
• Euro area – The next two weeks are key for Greece
• Market focus
• Sudden steepening i...
• The BoJ kept monetary policy unchanged on 30 April, in line with consensus
• The BoJ extended the timeframe for achieving the 2% inflation target to H1-FY16
• We believe that the BoJ will need to ease further in H2-2015 if it is to achieve its i...
• Benefits of previous rate cuts are emerging – housing market is picking up, KOSPI is rallying, credit is increasing and policy makers are becoming less dovish
• We maintain our view of no rate change this year
• We maintain our Neutral outlook o...
Nigeria April BSI was unchanged in April at 61.0
• Current conditions remain soft but Nigerian businesses are more confident about the short-term outlook
• The NGN exchange rate continues to impact Nigerian businesses...
The following reports received the most reads from clients, as per readership data, for the period from 23 to 29 April 2015. They are listed in descending order of most reads:
Macro Strategy Views – Less than zero
Bumi Serpong Damai – Looking past...
Kenya’s BSI has continued to improve, rising to 66.9 in April from 60.6 in March
• Domestic demand appears to be strong: New orders, production and order backlogs increased in April
• Firms continued to report greater credit availability; the indi...
Event – The Bank of Japan (BoJ) board kept its ‘quantitative and qualitative monetary easing’ (QQE) programme unchanged at JPY 80tn of annual asset purchases at its 30 April monetary policy meeting. We had expected an expansion of QQE at the meeting...
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Top 3 data/events
• Singapore – Prices may have continued to fall in April
• Taiwan – We forecast slower IP growth in April on weak export sales
• Japan – Trade balance likely turned negative again in April
• Market focus
• EM/DM yield spread was range-bound as foreign investors became...
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