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  • 26-Mar – In the steady hands of the CBC - Updated Tue March 25, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Bad weather likely weighed on February data • Philippines – BSP is likely to keep policy unchanged in March • South Africa – MPC seen on hold at March meeting; risks are building • Market focus • Expect the CBC to k...

  • Nigeria – Time to adjust the FX band - Updated Mon March 24, 2014

    Some stability has returned to the FX market recently • However, this is largely because of CBN intervention • FX reserves are down almost 12% since the January MPC meeting • We believe the CBN will adjust the NGN FX band at the March MPC meeting...

  • 25-Mar – The trans-Tasman twist - Updated Mon March 24, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – IP growth was likely strong in February • Euro area – US seeking a united front with EU against Russia • US – Corporate investment is still not in the data • Market focus • The NZ economy has been solid in recen...

  • China – The long, long march to SOE reform - Updated Mon March 24, 2014

    Local governments are selling minority stakes in SOEs, a small step forward • SOE exit from 'competitive' industries - a meaningful opening up to the private sector - is still a way off • An expert panel on SOE reform says central government pol...

  • 24-Mar – Revising our SGD rates forecasts - Updated Sun March 23, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Vietnam – Q1 GDP likely grew 5.0% y/y • Nigeria – S&P says CreditWatch Negative, MPC may change FX band • Germany – Geopolitical fears may dampen IFO survey in March • Market focus • We revise our SGD rates forecast sl...

  • Zambia takes action to defend the currency [CORRECTION] - Updated Fri March 21, 2014

    • This supersedes the version dated 21 March 2014. Page 1, third paragraph, corrects the policy rate. • Bank of Zambia tightens policy further, raising rate on overnight lending facility with immediate effect • Earlier regulation suspending FX b...

  • Sri Lanka – CBSL on an extended pause - Updated Fri March 21, 2014

    2013 GDP surprises on the upside, and inflation continues to fall, justifying CBSL’s status quo on rates • Q4 GDP increase in contrast to weakness in proxy growth indicators • No change likely in policy rate until Q3-2014 the earliest • The T-...

  • Global Research: Top Weekly Reads: 14 – 20 March 2014 - Updated Fri March 21, 2014

    The following reports received the most reads from external clients, as per anonymous readership data, for the period from 14 to 20 March 2014. They are listed in descending order of most reads: • United States – FOMC rate hike: The seeds are sown ...

  • 21-Mar – Divergence in the dollar bloc - Updated Thu March 20, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Inflation likely remained modest in February • Taiwan – Industrial production to show recovery gaining momentum • Euro area – Geopolitical tensions may bruise PMIs • Market focus • NZD outperforms due to a str...

  • United States – FOMC rate hike: The seeds are sown - Updated Wed March 19, 2014

    Blaming recent weaker data on the weather, Yellen sees the first hike ‘six months’ after the end of QE • FOMC projections show a steeper rate-hiking cycle ahead; optimism about the outlook prevails • As we expected, the explicit thresholds were dr...

  • UK – Drink, build and be merry, for tomorrow we save - Updated Wed March 19, 2014

    Policy makers see the UK’s recovery broadening out beyond consumption and housing activity • The OBR has revised down its forecast of spare capacity: slack could be eliminated faster than expected • There will be tax give-aways over the next year...

  • 20-Mar – Colombia's gain is other EMs' pain - Updated Wed March 19, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • China – Further heavy corporate FX selling in February • Malaysia – Inflation likely to remain on an uptrend • Mexico – Our MFCI still shows tight monetary conditions • Market focus • Colombia’s weight in EM bond indices w...

  • 19-Mar – Challenging the bear hug - Updated Tue March 18, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – Inflation begins to edge lower • New Zealand – Q4-2013 GDP likely reflected strong recovery momentum • Taiwan – Export orders likely to show an improving growth outlook • Market focus • Russia faces more sancti...

  • China – 375 clients talk wages in the PRD - Updated Tue March 18, 2014

    • Our PRD manufacturer survey suggests wages will rise 9.2% in 2014, versus 8.4% in 2013 • Labour shortages continue; most clients plan to invest in equipment, but a growing minority will relocate • Productivity growth continues to keep pace with ...

  • United States – FOMC: Keeping guidance simple - Updated Mon March 17, 2014

    Another USD 10bn QE taper is on the cards at the 18-19 March Fed meeting; tapering is on auto-pilot • All eyes will be on the revamped forward guidance: We expect to see the end of explicit thresholds • The median FFTR projections could stay unch...

  • 18-Mar – The new BoK governor - Updated Mon March 17, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Trade deficit likely narrowed in February • UK – Labour-market slack is lessening • United States – Inflation to stay subdued; housing to edge up • Market focus • Ju-yeol Lee is likely to be confirmed as the new Ban...

  • Copper – An oversold market offers a chance to buy - Updated Mon March 17, 2014

    • 3-month LME copper breaks lower on a lack of confidence about China amid talk about financing deals • Market has overreacted to the possible outcome of unwinding, in our view; we do not see it happening • We maintain our full-year price foreca...

  • 17-Mar – FOMC: Jettisoning the thresholds - Updated Sun March 16, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Metals – Caught between China and Ukraine • Turkey – CBRT expected to leave its policy rate on hold at 10% • Germany – Investor confidence to moderate further in March • Market focus • Fed will likely taper QE by USD 10bn,...

  • Global Research: Top Weekly Reads: 07 – 14 March 2014 - Updated Fri March 14, 2014

    • The following reports received the most reads from external clients, as per anonymous readership data, for the period from 7 to 13 March 2014. They are listed in descending order of most reads: • On the Ground - Offshore Renminbi – Big Apple, big...

  • Canada – Going north, gradually - Updated Thu March 13, 2014

    We revise up our forecast for Canada’s GDP growth to 2.2% y/y for 2014 • We now see inflation rising to 1.4% for 2014, 0.2ppt down from our prior estimate • We expect the BoC to hike its policy rate in Q4-2015, one quarter earlier than previously ...



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17-Apr – China: Growth momentum slowed in Q1

Top 3 data/events • Japan – Trade deficit likely remained given import re-acceleration • Taiwan – Overseas demand likely supported export orders • US – Yellen sticks to her script in NY speech • Market focus • China’s Q1 GDP slowed to 7.4% y/y as credit and housing sales decelerated...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.