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  • 03-Feb – Asia: At least inflation is benign - Updated Mon February 2, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – January PMI to reflect sluggish manufacturing momentum • Taiwan – January inflation to slow significantly due to lower oil prices • UK – Composite PMI likely improved marginally • Market focus • Growth sentimen...

  • 02-Feb – India: RBI likely to cut rates - Updated Sun February 1, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Australia − RBA likely to revert to a dovish stance, without cutting rates • South Korea − CPI inflation likely picked up moderately in January • US – ISM likely moderated on global headwinds, oil price rout • Market focus ...

  • 30-Jan – Beware Greeks bearing tail-risks - Updated Thu January 29, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Indonesia – We expect inflation to have fallen in January • South Korea – January exports boosted by more working days • Thailand – Inflation was likely subdued in January on falling oil prices • Market focus • Signs of inv...

  • SC FIRST – Better off in EM in 2015 - Updated Thu January 29, 2015

    Current investor behaviour supports EM bonds, based on SC FIRST data on EM flows and positioning • Foreign holdings recovered in January after dipping in December; structural demand for EM continues • Indonesia stood out as the big positive story ...

  • Pay SGD 2Y IRS vs SGS 2Y on MAS’ surprise move - Updated Thu January 29, 2015

    The MAS’ surprise easing should lead to higher momentum in the SOR • We expect the SGD 2Y IRS to move higher and the IRS curve to flatten • We recommend entering the 2Y swap spread widener – pay SGD 2Y IRS vs buy SGS 2Y...

  • 29-Jan – If Singapore is the next Switzerland… - Updated Wed January 28, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – IP likely rose m/m in December; inflation likely slowed • South Korea – We expect industrial production to have improved in December • Euro area – CPI likely to move further into negative territory in January • Mark...

  • Singapore – MAS eases monetary policy - Updated Wed January 28, 2015

    We estimate that the MAS cut the SGD NEER slope to 1% appreciation per annum from 2% • We maintain our bearish view on the SGD and revise our USD-SGD forecasts slightly higher • We expect the SOR and the SGD 2Y IRS to move higher, and the IRS curv...

  • Pan-Asian rates: 2015 outlook - Updated Wed January 28, 2015

    Deflationary pressures should help to anchor risk-free rates and support Asian rates markets • While USD strength remains a headwind to Asian rates markets, onshore demand and structural flows should continue to support Asian LCY debt • Buying Ind...

  • Singapore – MAS cuts SGD NEER slope - Updated Wed January 28, 2015

    Event • In a surprise move, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) cut the slope of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (SGD NEER). We previously estimated the slope of appreciation at 2% per annum. There is no change to the cen...

  • 28-Jan – ‘Patient’ Fed watches the data - Updated Tue January 27, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • New Zealand – RBNZ expected to keep cash rate unchanged at 3.50% • Philippines – Q4 GDP growth rebound expected after disappointing Q3 • South Africa – MPC to clarify tightening intent • Market focus • We expect little chan...

  • Vietnam – A story beyond oil - Updated Tue January 27, 2015

    We expect the oil-price decline to have little impact on Vietnam’s trade sector; inflation likely to stay low • The rise of higher-value-added industries should support Vietnam’s growth in the long run • We see further upside risks to USD-VND in ...

  • SSA rates 2015 − Battling a bearish FX bias - Updated Tue January 27, 2015

    Nigeria: Oil-price weakness and FX outlook constrain offshore bid; bonds offer value onshore • Ghana: GHS bonds look nominally attractive, despite FX, convertibility and investment-horizon risks • Kenya: KES infrastructure bonds will likely contin...

  • 27-Jan – BoT to keep rates on hold - Updated Mon January 26, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – We expect BNM to keep policy rates unchanged • Australia – Q4-2014 inflation was likely lower at 1.8% y/y • US – Fed in ‘hibernation’; statement should repeat ‘patience’ • Market focus • We reiterate our call tha...

  • United States – Fed hibernates in January - Updated Mon January 26, 2015

    The 28 January Fed meeting is unlikely to bring surprises; statement should repeat continued “patience” • Recent low wage and soft inflation prints will likely take centre stage during internal debates • These worries are unlikely to be reflected ...

  • Offshore Renminbi market – Outlook for 2015 - Updated Mon January 26, 2015

    • We expect total CNH assets to exceed CNY 3tn and 10 more clearing banks to be appointed this year • Bond yields and CCS are likely to rise further in Q1 on tight liquidity and heavy redemptions • We expect rates to decline in Q2 and end 2015...

  • 26-Jan – ECB reinforces AXJ cross-currents - Updated Sun January 25, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Trade deficit to widen in November • Taiwan – Monitoring index to show economy on steady growth path • Vietnam – January data likely to show an acceleration ahead of Tet • Market focus • PBoC signals defensive...

  • 23-Jan – The ECB’s excellent QE adventure - Updated Thu January 22, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – Exports on track for modest recovery • Singapore – IP likely to have contracted in December • United Kingdom – GDP likely rose 0.7% q/q in Q4 • Market focus • The ECB will buy sovereign bonds from March in an ex...

  • Euro area: ECB going for ‘QE-heavy’ - Updated Thu January 22, 2015

    The package includes EUR 60bn of public and private asset purchases • The ECB exceeded market expectations by making the programme open-ended • Bund yields to rise during 2015, but at a slower pace than we previously expected...

  • Sri Lanka – Inflation trajectory to improve further - Updated Thu January 22, 2015

    New administration cuts fuel prices substantially, fulfilling a key electoral promise • Inflation trajectory looks even more benign now; this could raise expectations of a policy rate cut • We maintain our view of no rate change due to external ...

  • IDR and THB bonds benefit from index re-weighting - Updated Thu January 22, 2015

    In December, the GBI-EM-GD index weights of IDR and THB bonds increased by 0.55ppt and 0.72ppt, respectively • This implies marginal demand of c.USD 1.2bn for IDR bonds and c.USD 1.6bn for THB bonds from GBI-EM-GD benchmarked investors, ceteris par...



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31-Mar – BoJ’s Tankan likely to show a...

Top 3 data/events • UK – We expect the manufacturing PMI to have improved further • South Korea – CPI inflation was likely low; trade surplus likely increased • China – Manufacturing sector likely remained sluggish in March • Market focus • BoJ’s Tankan likely indicates improving...

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