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  • 05-Mar – US focus: From payrolls to pay rise - Updated Wed March 4, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Elevated TWD NEER to weigh on the TWD • South Korea – We expect a BoK rate cut in Q2-2015 • Malaysia – Exports likely slowed in January • Market focus • We see NFPs at 230,000 from 257,000 and unemployment at 5.6% ...

  • 04-Mar – BNM policy stance supports receiving rates - Updated Tue March 3, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – Retail and external trade likely contracted in October • UK – Bank of England will likely keep interest rates unchanged • Euro area – ECB will likely revise growth up and inflation down • Market focus • BNM is l...

  • 03-Mar – China’s political meetings in focus - Updated Mon March 2, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Latest IP data to show pick-up in economic activity • Brazil – Tightening mode for now • Canada – BoC took out insurance in Jan; may wait now, then cut again • Market focus • China’s all-important annual NPC an...

  • 02-Mar – Question for the RBA is not if, but when - Updated Sun March 1, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea − CPI inflation likely picked up on holiday shopping • Singapore − Subdued recovery in PMI expected • Taiwan − Export orders likely gained on strong tech demand • Market focus • RBA likely to keep rates unchange...

  • 27-Feb – India – Narrower deficit, higher investment - Updated Thu February 26, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • China – Manufacturing weighed down by Lunar New Year period • South Korea – Lower trade figures owing to Lunar New Year holiday • Euro area – February CPI likely to move further into negative territory • Market focus • We ...

  • 25-Feb – CNY’s sheepish start to the Year of the Goat - Updated Tue February 24, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – January exports probably stayed soft • Kenya – CBK expected to keep rates on hold, despite deflation • Japan – Key January data to show recovery; inflation likely slowed • Market focus • China’s onshore FX marke...

  • 23-Feb – Yellen to sound less dovish than minutes - Updated Sun February 22, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines − Trade deficit expected due to poor export growth • Vietnam - Key February data likely distorted by Tet holiday • Turkey – We expect the CBRT to cut its benchmark rate 50bps • Market focus • We expect (relative...

  • India – Budgeting for quality - Updated Thu February 19, 2015

    We expect the government to deliver on its FY15 fiscal deficit target of 4.1%; we project 3.6% for FY16 • Lower crude oil prices, recent hikes in excise tax may provide fiscal space to stimulate public investment • However, more radical steps are ...

  • Indonesia – Revising our forecasts - Updated Wed February 18, 2015

    • We lower our end-2015 inflation forecast to 3.7% from 4.5% to reflect lower oil prices • We now expect BI to cut the BI rate to 7.25% in Q1-2015, before hiking in H2 to 7.75% • We revise our 2015 current account deficit forecast to 2.8% of nomin...

  • 18-Feb – Fed minutes likely to show tightening bias - Updated Tue February 17, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – Trade deficit likely widened in January • Euro area – PMIs likely to tick down • Euro area – ECB releases meeting minutes for the first time ever • Market focus • The minutes’ tone should be balanced; but the under...



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24-Apr – Awaiting another surprise from...

Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Beware excessive euphoria • United States – Durable goods to show still-strong industry headwinds • Oil – US oil production set to fall heavily • Market focus • We expect the BoJ to add at least JPY10tn to the asset purchase programme on 30 April • The BoJ...

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Technology: Reshaping the global economy

Digital technology is transforming the economy and society. Adoption, not invention, has the most economic impact. Technology can lift developed countries if they embrace change. New technologies offer more opportunities than challenges for emerging markets.