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  • 08-Jan – ASEAN reforms as oil prices fall - Updated Wed January 7, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – External and retail trade likely contracted in November • Philippines – We expect good, but not great, export growth • Germany – Industrial production likely increased at a steady rate • Market focus • Indonesia...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Resilience to be tested in 2015 - Updated Wed January 7, 2015

    RGI rose 1.2% m/m in November; trade settlement is a key driver, as 22% of China’s trade settled in RMB • By end-2015, we expect the RGI to reach 2,500 and Renminbi deposits in Hong Kong to reach CNY 1.05tn • Dim Sum issuance this year should be ...

  • 07-Jan – FOMC minutes to show Fed still in no rush - Updated Tue January 6, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • China – Disinflationary pressures continue to build • Malaysia – Industrial production likely buoyed by solid domestic activity • UK – MPC will likely keep rates unchanged • Market focus • FOMC meeting minutes are unlikely ...

  • 6-Jan – Greek election raises the stakes for ECB QE - Updated Mon January 5, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Sharp fall in oil price likely lifted total trade surplus • Malaysia – We expect export growth rebounded in November • Euro area – Falling oil prices could pull inflation negative • Market focus • Euro-area inflatio...

  • Thailand – A successful inaugural debt switch - Updated Mon January 5, 2015

    Thailand’s PDMO successfully concluded its first-ever debt switch for THB 76.235bn in November 2014 • This aims to smoothen the government’s debt redemption profile and deepen the bond market • We believe introducing the green-shoe option to PDs a...

  • 19-Dec – NGN – FX trading comes to a halt - Updated Thu December 18, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Export orders to show mixed demand; job data set to improve • Euro area – Consumer confidence will likely pick up • Colombia – BanRep to hold rates unchanged at 4.5% • Market focus • CBN cuts foreign-exchange tradi...

  • SC FIRST – EM losing the game of patience - Updated Thu December 18, 2014

    Fed will be patient but EM investors are not; outflows are channelling through more liquid bond markets • While overall flows reflect the Fed story, relative flows show the lower oil story still captures mindshare • Stressed markets care about e...

  • US – December FOMC meeting has gifts for all - Updated Thu December 18, 2014

    Fed Chair Yellen shows prudence and no rush to tighten policy, while maintaining a tightening bias • Usual optimism prevails; lower oil prices seen as ‘positive’, rising global market volatility is ignored • We continue to see a September rate hik...

  • 18-Dec – Fed meeting – Three’s a crowd - Updated Wed December 17, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Japan – BoJ unlikely to move at its last policy meeting of 2014 • CNH – Tight onshore liquidity to keep CNH points elevated • UK – Consumer confidence likely improved in December • Market focus • FOMC is ‘patient’ but Chair...

  • 17-Dec – More pain before gain for the INR - Updated Tue December 16, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – We expect the CBC to keep benchmark policy rate unchanged • New Zealand – Q3 GDP growth likely remained strong at 0.6% q/q • Germany – IFO business climate likely improved in December • Market focus • Crowded posit...



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Trade idea

27-Feb – India – Narrower deficit, higher...

Top 3 data/events • China – Manufacturing weighed down by Lunar New Year period • South Korea – Lower trade figures owing to Lunar New Year holiday • Euro area – February CPI likely to move further into negative territory • Market focus • We expect the government to adhere to the...

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