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  • Offshore RMB: Extending receive 5Y CNH CCS target - Updated Thu April 9, 2015

    We extend the target of our receive 5Y CNH CCS trade to 3.2%, as our initial target was met in two weeks • CNH liquidity conditions could ease further on strong southbound flows under Stock Connect, steady FX • Refinancing pressure will ease mater...

  • 09-Apr – A pause for breath or a policy inflection? - Updated Wed April 8, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Malaysia – Industrial production likely slowed in February • China – We think inflation moderated after the Lunar New Year • China – Credit growth likely slid again in March • Market focus • USD strength in Q1 was almost in ...

  • Offshore Renminbi – Pausing before a likely leap - Updated Wed April 8, 2015

    Our RGI rose 0.14% m/m in February on lower deposits in Hong Kong and slower cross-border flows • Likely inclusion of the Renminbi in the IMF’s SDR basket could lead to faster internationalisation • The launch of China’s deposit insurance scheme i...

  • 08-Apr – BoK will likely keep the base rate on hold - Updated Tue April 7, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • UK – We expect the BoE to keep the Bank Rate unchanged • Germany – Industrial production likely rose in February • US – Trilogy of Yellen-Fischer-Dudley speeches make minutes look old • Market focus • BoK will likely lower ...

  • India – A wait and watch policy - Updated Tue April 7, 2015

    • RBI maintains status quo on policy rates today; we think further rate cuts are still likely • We expect a 50bps reduction in the repo rate to 7% in FY16, equally split over the next two meetings • Stay Positive on IGBs; Buy 10Y IGBs (entry: 8.0...

  • 07-Apr – BoJ is likely to ease further in April - Updated Mon April 6, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • India – The SIGMA signal is bearish; we remain Positive on IGBs • Taiwan – Exports likely grew in March; inflation may have declined • Philippines – Export growth likely rebounded modestly in February • Market focus • Rece...

  • 02-Apr – India – A pause before easing - Updated Wed April 1, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Australia – RBA likely to maintain cash rate at 2.25% in a close call • Malaysia – We expect lacklustre export growth for February • Philippines – Inflation likely eased in March • Market focus • RBI likely to keep repo rat...

  • 01-Apr – US – The payroll/GDP debate - Updated Tue March 31, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – We expect the PMI to have remained weak • Turkey – Headline CPI likely eased in March • FX – Our forecasts for 2015 and 2016 • Market focus • We look for a moderation in payroll growth: our forecast is 230,000 ...

  • 31-Mar – BoJ’s Tankan likely to show a mixed picture - Updated Mon March 30, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • UK – We expect the manufacturing PMI to have improved further • South Korea – CPI inflation was likely low; trade surplus likely increased • China – Manufacturing sector likely remained sluggish in March • Market focus • Bo...

  • 30-Mar – Euro area is gaining momentum - Updated Sun March 29, 2015

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – IP likely dropped during the Lunar New Year holiday • Thailand – Rising tourism income may have boosted C/A surplus • US – Soft core PCE inflation to keep September hike on track • Market focus • The euro area ...

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27-May – BoC: A believer in better times...

Top 3 data/events • Philippines – GDP growth likely remained healthy in Q1 • Hong Kong – Still too early to confirm an export recovery • Euro area – Economic sentiment likely deteriorated • Market focus • At its 27 May meeting, we see the BoC maintaining its overnight lending rate at...

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