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  • 27-Feb – The hidden North Asia risk story - Updated Wed February 26, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • South Korea – IP likely fell on adverse base effect and external factors • India – Yet another quarter of weak economic activity • US – Durable goods orders: More than the weather • Market focus • Authorities’ desire to di...

  • South Africa – Some positives from the budget - Updated Wed February 26, 2014

    We give our initial reaction to the budget – there are some positives for local markets • The Treasury targets faster fiscal consolidation for the current year and the medium term • Delivery risk will be linked both to the external environment a...

  • 26-Feb – EM-21: Bearish GBP, bullish CAD - Updated Tue February 25, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Decline in leading indicators index is probably temporary • Euro area – Weak lending data takes the shine off sentiment surveys • Brazil – COPOM’s hiking cycle: The end is near • Market focus • EM-21 central-bank ...

  • 25-Feb – Singapore investor roundtable: Optimistic bears - Updated Mon February 24, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – January industrial production likely softer • Hong Kong – Scaling back one-off fiscal concessions • South Africa – Fiscal consolidation in an election year • Market focus • We held a Singapore investor roundtabl...

  • UK – Cut the slack - Updated Mon February 24, 2014

    • Spare capacity is key for BoE policy makers: by Q4-2014, less slack in the labour market should trigger concerns over the medium-term inflation outlook • We expect a measured hiking path equivalent to 25bps each quarter from Q1-2015 through 2016 ...

  • 24-Feb – Brazil: The BCB’s juggling act - Updated Sun February 23, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Philippines – Trade deficit likely widened on stronger import growth • Hong Kong – Export data was likely distorted by Lunar New Year • Vietnam – February data expected to be distorted by Lunar New Year • Market focus • We...

  • 21-Feb – China FX reform ahead of G20 - Updated Thu February 20, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Singapore – Inflation probably remained benign in January • Taiwan – IP growth likely dipped in January due to the seasonal effect • Germany – IFO expectations to gauge corporate sentiment • Market focus • Chinese authoriti...

  • SC FIRST – Neutral on EM bonds; stay long 10Y THB - Updated Thu February 20, 2014

    Our directional signal for EM bonds has turned neutral for the first time since October 2013 • Foreign holdings of EM bonds are stabilising; EM bond funds redemptions/outflows remain negative • Our EM/DM spread signal is neutral; foreign investors...

  • 20-Feb – Fed QE taper on auto pilot - Updated Wed February 19, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Hong Kong – Steady inflation continues • Brazil – All eyes on January’s balance of payments data • Chile – What lies beneath • Market focus • January’s minutes show that the bar to pause Fed QE tapering remains very high ...

  • 19-Feb – Kurodanomics ‘works’ again - Updated Tue February 18, 2014

    Top 3 data/events • Taiwan – Export orders likely declined due to seasonal effects • Euro area – Flash PMIs to boost confidence on recovery • Japan – Fast import growth but slower exports likely in January • Market focus • The BoJ surprised...

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17-Apr – China: Growth momentum slowed in Q1

Top 3 data/events • Japan – Trade deficit likely remained given import re-acceleration • Taiwan – Overseas demand likely supported export orders • US – Yellen sticks to her script in NY speech • Market focus • China’s Q1 GDP slowed to 7.4% y/y as credit and housing sales decelerated...

In Media

Global Focus - The world in transition

The world economy is in transition. Global growth rates are picking up, but transition means elevated risks and volatility. In terms of global implications, all eyes will be on the US and China, with the US normalising monetary policy and China rebalancing its economy.